Texas Fall 2017

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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#101 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:17 am

JDawg512 wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:We have had acorns falling for at least a week now. Seems early(?). Acorns usually start dropping around here in October. Maybe the trees can sense the cooler weather and change of seasons coming(?).



I'm attributing it to the rainfall over the last couple of years. Oaks tend to produce acorns bi-yearly so some years you may not see as many while others theres an abundance. Overall they will produce a ton during wetter periods and less during drier. For example the Live Oak in my front yard had a massive amount of acorns this past fall. It won't be producing as many this year but I'm still expecting a fairly decent amount. My Red Oak didn't produce a lot last year but I can already see it covered with acorns this year.

I have seen the squirrels around my yard out foraging and burying their stash already.


Yeah, I also have a large Cedar Elm tree (not to be confused with Ashe Juniper "Mountain Cedar") that is growing little green leaflets (seeds?), that usually happen around this time of year. I have not seen any so far, but usually there are four of five squirrels up there stripping those leaves off the trees, bringing down little twigs with them, littering the yard with twigs and leaves. Twigs get so thick, it's like a carpet on the lawn. Annoying, but as long as what they are doing doesn't hurt tree, I guess ok. My neighbors have a couple of Cedar Elms in the front yard by the street, and the squirrels do the same thing over there. Seems to be a yearly occurrence, and tree still seems healthy.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#102 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:29 pm

Old timers weather lore says that you can predict the upcoming season with how bushy a squirrels tail is, how fat they are this time of year and how busy they are gathering seeds and nuts. There are many others involving bees, livestock, spiders, crickets and trees to name a few. Many of the old farmers around here swear by that lore type of stuff. Ive always wondered how accurate any of it actually is.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#103 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:41 pm

Man, My laptop screen broke last Wednesday and I just got it back from the shop today. It was really painful with seeing little of Irma as well. It's definitely been a bit warmer here recently due to ridging, might even hit 80 later this week. The good news is that it seems like I will get to see some pretty good foliage this year(I have a high standard due to foliage I've seen in Topeka, Kansas and it's been bad here in Ohio the past 2 years). Some trees had already began to turn colors when I got on campus in August, those are now brown and on the ground. A lot of leaves are now yellow and red and some of them are falling today due to wind and rain from the remnants of Irma.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#104 Postby JDawg512 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:24 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:
JDawg512 wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:We have had acorns falling for at least a week now. Seems early(?). Acorns usually start dropping around here in October. Maybe the trees can sense the cooler weather and change of seasons coming(?).



I'm attributing it to the rainfall over the last couple of years. Oaks tend to produce acorns bi-yearly so some years you may not see as many while others theres an abundance. Overall they will produce a ton during wetter periods and less during drier. For example the Live Oak in my front yard had a massive amount of acorns this past fall. It won't be producing as many this year but I'm still expecting a fairly decent amount. My Red Oak didn't produce a lot last year but I can already see it covered with acorns this year.

I have seen the squirrels around my yard out foraging and burying their stash already.


Yeah, I also have a large Cedar Elm tree (not to be confused with Ashe Juniper "Mountain Cedar") that is growing little green leaflets (seeds?), that usually happen around this time of year. I have not seen any so far, but usually there are four of five squirrels up there stripping those leaves off the trees, bringing down little twigs with them, littering the yard with twigs and leaves. Twigs get so thick, it's like a carpet on the lawn. Annoying, but as long as what they are doing doesn't hurt tree, I guess ok. My neighbors have a couple of Cedar Elms in the front yard by the street, and the squirrels do the same thing over there. Seems to be a yearly occurrence, and tree still seems healthy.


Cedar Elms are one of my favorite native tall trees. Those little leaflet things are indeed seeds. We have a tall one in the front and a large one that has more of a wide canopy in the back. We've had a swing hanging off one of the big branches as far back as I can remember. The trees aren't injured by the squirrels. They like to eat the seeds and also use small twigs and such from the Cedar Elms to build their nests.


Starting to feel more humidity but would prefer if it precipitated. I've been swamped with a lot of things and haven't been able to keep track of two week plus long range but I take it that the rest of this month will continue to be warm and dry.


It's interesting you mentioned the squirrels bushy tails Yukon Cornelius, I noticed one in the back yesterday with a very puffy looking rail. It's what caught my attention.

I wonder what Lucy will do with that football... :slime:
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#105 Postby TexasStorm » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:37 am

If you believe the all reliable CPC, its going to be a scorcher all Winter. 3 month outlooks show above normal all the way into Spring. But the CPC cannot be believed right? :ggreen: :lol: :cold:
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#106 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:40 pm

day 1 of the heat and I'm already sick of it

Bring back fall!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#107 Postby starsfan65 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:06 pm

Brent wrote:day 1 of the heat and I'm already sick of it

Bring back fall!
I hate this heat!!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#108 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:17 pm

La Nina Watch. Boo. :(

Bob Rose:
Earlier this year, there was strong evidence an El Niño would return this fall and winter as sea surface temperatures were steadily warming in the tropical Pacific. However, these hopes were dashed by the middle of summer as sea surface temperatures unexpected began to cool. This cooling trend has continued and it now appears these waters are on the threshold for La Niña.

In a report released Thursday from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), sea surface temperatures trended near to below average over the past month in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
Waters just below the surface have also trended cooler than normal. According to the CPC, the Pacific is currently still considered to be ENSO neutral, but based on patterns on rainfall and wind across the Pacific, conditions appear to be quickly trending toward La Niña.

Because of these recent developments, the Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, meaning there is an increasing chance (approximately 55-60 percent) of a La Niña developing this fall, continuing through the upcoming winter.

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#109 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:20 pm

well the El Nino didn't do us any good so I don't think it can be any worse... :sick:

At least the last La Nina here(I think) had the infamous Super Bowl storm with separate ice and snowstorms in a week
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#110 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Brent wrote:well the El Nino didn't do us any good so I don't think it can be any worse... :sick:

At least the last La Nina here(I think) had the infamous Super Bowl storm


Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 2h2 hours ago
"La Niña means extreme winter weather -- colder global temperatures -- and all sorts of interesting things. Are you prepared for it?"

Many of Northern and NE Texas severe winter events have occurred during a La Nina Year
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#111 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:32 pm

wasn't Christmas 1989 also a la nina? The last time Dallas got below zero?

It may not be that cold overall but there may be a lot more extremes on both ends

If we just get one solid winter storm it'd be an improvement over the last 2 winters.

I think the key is to keep them weak, the strong el nino doomed us, a weak la nina would be a lot better than something strong

according to this the infamous winter of 83-84 was also weak la nina :eek: the longest time Dallas has ever been below freezing

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#112 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:18 pm

Brent wrote:well the El Nino didn't do us any good so I don't think it can be any worse... :sick:

At least the last La Nina here(I think) had the infamous Super Bowl storm with separate ice and snowstorms in a week


There are often short cold spells in La Nina. Often followed by very warm inbetween. The last below normal winter for DFW in a La Nina was 1983-1984 . All Ninas since have been warmer winters.

However in the new ONI dataset 83-84 is now neutral
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#113 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:40 pm

in other news, the GFS has a big rain event Tuesday Night/Wednesday morning while the Euro is bone dry

Can the GFS be right for once?
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#114 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:36 pm

99-00 was a strong La Nina. In December of 2000, Texarkana had 3 significant winter weather events. The second week of December, Texarkana had a 4" inch combination of sleet and snow. On that same day, deep east and southeast Texas had a major ice storm. On Christmas day, NE Texas, most of Arkansas, and SE Oklahoma had a catastrophic ice storm. Much of Texarkana was without power for 1-2 weeks. The 31st of December, Texarkana received 7" of snow. This was the same snow event that affected the Independence Bowl in Shreveport between Texas A&M and Mississippi State. Link of game highlights below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40h2f-gzTvE


Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#115 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:49 pm

Brent wrote:wasn't Christmas 1989 also a la nina? The last time Dallas got below zero?


Yes, La Nina winters, overall, are generally warm, but have been known for extreme winter weather events.


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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#116 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:59 pm

Great info aggiecutter.

We've been bandying about the whole Niña thing in the Texas Winter thread also. We've had several nice winter weather events in Austin during Niña winters. The last time it snowed here was during a Niña winter (2011).
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#117 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:02 pm

:uarrow:

That Nina in 2011 was also followed by the worst Summer EVER .

Hopefully that analog will repeat this Winter, but not for the Summer.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#118 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:13 am

2010-2011 Nina winter had some profound Greenland blocking likely residual effects of 2009-2010 which was also the same.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#119 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:49 am

Anyone think EPAC Norma could bring us some rain middle end of next week? It looks like it's going to recurve
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#120 Postby lukem » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:54 am

^^^I was just about to ask the same question.
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