Texas Fall 2017

[Yukon Cornelius]

Amazing feeling morning, woke up to low 40s. Picked up 1/4'' over the weekend.

[vbhoutex]

In Houston we are celebrating the "brisk" 61f this morning. It's about time we cooled down a little!! Hoping the 50's for tomorrow is real!!

[Brent]

12z GFS has some freezing temperatures the weekend before Halloween

Keep getting signals of something big cold wise here and its moving up in time.

[Ralph's Weather]

12z GFS has some freezing temperatures the weekend before Halloween

Keep getting signals of something big cold wise here and its moving up in time.

The GFS sure looks interesting for the end of the month. Assuming the event is a bit further out than advertised at this range we could be looking at a cold Halloween. Halloween 1993 featured temps in the low to 30s and I swear I recall someone saying there was a bit of sleet that day, but I have yet to find a record of that being the case.

[Brent]

12z GFS has some freezing temperatures the weekend before Halloween

Keep getting signals of something big cold wise here and its moving up in time.

The GFS sure looks interesting for the end of the month. Assuming the event is a bit further out than advertised at this range we could be looking at a cold Halloween. Halloween 1993 featured temps in the low to 30s and I swear I recall someone saying there was a bit of sleet that day, but I have yet to find a record of that being the case.

1993 is one of the coldest Halloweens for DFW(record low 29) and thats the same year there was a sleet storm on Thanksgiving.... a trace of "snow" was reported on October 29th which is the record for October

CMC is quite cold even sooner at the end of the run(mid week next week) with some 30s

[Ntxw]

1993 and 1991 are the benchmark for cold late Oct and early Nov. In 1991 on Halloween DFW had a high of 43F. 1993 it snowed a few days earlier. A month later in 1993 was the Leon Lett TG game.

[Ntxw]

Euro has a cutoff low over the state about a week away. Highs would likely be in the 50s and dreary underneath such a feature.

[Brent]

Euro has a cutoff low over the state about a week away. Highs would likely be in the 50s and dreary underneath such a feature.

Over 3 inches of rain for DFW

Over an inch and a half Austin and Houston

[Tireman4]

1993 and 1991 are the benchmark for cold late Oct and early Nov. In 1991 on Halloween DFW had a high of 43F. 1993 it snowed a few days earlier. A month later in 1993 was the Leon Lett TG game.

As a Cowboy fan, this hurts. Still. Dang it Big Cat, why? Interestingly enough, he is an Assistant Coach with the Cowboys to this day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OriB0ihBedY

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

1993 and 1991 are the benchmark for cold late Oct and early Nov. In 1991 on Halloween DFW had a high of 43F. 1993 it snowed a few days earlier. A month later in 1993 was the Leon Lett TG game.

As a Cowboy fan, this hurts. Still. Dang it Big Cat, why? Interestingly enough, he is an Assistant Coach with the Cowboys to this day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OriB0ihBedY

You know how I know fall has arrived? The State Fair? Texas-OU? Christmas displays in the retails stores?

Nope. I mark the start of fall by the first mention of the Leon Lett Thanksgiving Day Snow Bowl. It's on like Donkey Kong!

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:

Sunday's cold front, the strongest so far this season, has brought a true taste of fall-like weather to Central and South Texas. Low temperatures this morning included the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, the low and mid 50s across Central Texas and the upper 50s to low 60s across the coastal plains region. In Austin, the low temperature at Camp Mabry and at Austin-Bergstrom was 56 degrees. According to LCRA's Hydromet, many locations across the northern Hill Country saw temperatures earlier this morning reach the mid and upper 30s.

Monday's weather maps showed a broad, stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere covering the southern and southwestern US. This ridge is forecast to remain over our area through Thursday, then shift to the eastern US. At the surface, a broad dome of Canadian high pressure has spread south in the wake of Sunday's cold front and now covers most of the central and eastern US. This dome of high pressure, responsible for the cooler temperatures, is forecast to remain in place into Wednesday, then move off to the east on Thursday.

For today through Thursday, expect a sunny and dry weather pattern. High temperatures will generally be in the mid and upper 70s today and Tuesday, warming to the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Readings are forecast to be even cooler tonight than they were earlier this morning. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will include the upper 30s to low 40s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 40s across Central Texas and the low 50s across the coastal plains. Lows Wednesday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country to the low 50s near the coast. Lows Thursday morning will range from the low 50s across the Hill Country to the low 60s towards the coast.

Light southerly winds are forecast to return to the area beginning Wednesday, with the southerly flow continuing Thursday into the weekend. Higher humidity levels are expected beginning Friday as moisture spreads north from the coast.

As the ridge of high pressure moves east late week, a couple of weak disturbances in the upper atmosphere are forecast to begin spreading across Texas out of northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. These disturbances may cause the development of a few spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region Friday and Saturday. The probability for rain will only be near 20 percent. For areas do happen to see rain, totals should average less than a quarter inch. Otherwise, expect a partly cloudy sky Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will be in the low and mid-80s while low temperatures will be in the 60s.

A better chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to occur Saturday night through Sunday when a large trough of low pressure tracks east out of the Rockies and dips south into North Texas. This trough will help drive another cold front across Texas on Sunday. But unlike this past Sunday's front, atmospheric conditions ahead of the next front are forecast to be more favorable for the development of rain showers and thunderstorms. Depending on how the situation evolves, some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe across parts of the area. The most favorable period for rain looks to occur Saturday night through Sunday afternoon, with a chance for light rain showers lingering into Monday.

The National Weather Service's rainfall forecast for next weekend calls for totals close to an inch for areas along and east of Interstate 35. For areas west of Interstate 35, totals are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 0.75 inches.

Mostly sunny, dry and mild weather conditions are forecast next Tuesday through Friday as a large ridge of high pressure sets up over the southwestern US and northern Mexico. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-80s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 50s to mid-60s.

Hurricane Ophelia lost its tropical characteristics late Sunday night was downgraded to a powerful low pressure system by the National Hurricane Center. Despite not being classified as a hurricane, the low pressure system that had been Ophelia hit Ireland hard with full hurricane-like winds on Monday, bringing powerful winds that caused widespread damage and power outages. At least two deaths have been reported from trees falling on cars, and The Irish Times said at least 360,000 customers lost power in Ireland because of the storm. Ophelia's center crossed the southwest coast of Ireland near 5:30 am CDT Monday (12:30 pm local time). The National Hurricane Center's last advisory at 10 pm CDT Sunday night reported Ophelia's highest sustained winds of 85 mph. The system weakened only slightly before making landfall Monday morning in Ireland. The storm took only about four hours to cross Ireland, and emerged from the north coast at approximately 10:30 am CDT.

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[Portastorm]

1993 and 1991 are the benchmark for cold late Oct and early Nov. In 1991 on Halloween DFW had a high of 43F. 1993 it snowed a few days earlier. A month later in 1993 was the Leon Lett TG game.

A much lesser known, lesser impacted football game during that time frame was the Texas-A&M game on Thanksgiving night 1993 (November 25th). The game was in College Station and was played in freezing drizzle. Aggies won 18-9. I remember watching it and how ice was forming in various spots on the sidelines. Aggies went 10-2 that season and 7-0 in the old Southwest Conference. They lost to Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl 24-21. Texas went 5-5-1 but 5-2 in conference play.

[bubba hotep]

Euro has a cutoff low over the state about a week away. Highs would likely be in the 50s and dreary underneath such a feature.

The Euro has been all over the place with that system but the EPS mean has been pretty steady. Recent op runs have ranged from retrograding into Cali to being over Florida for the same time frame with occasional stops over Texas. Hopefully, it's locking in on a solution now.

[Ntxw]

At least we got the very mild temps behind us for awhile. Warmest days later this week is low 80s before another front which isn't that much above normal.

If we're lucky no more 90s until next year.

[Brent]

the odds of 90s decrease by the day so I'm becoming more and more optimistic they're over

[Cpv17]

According to the GFS, rain chances for the weekend and next week are diminishing what a surprise

[Ralph's Weather]

1993 and 1991 are the benchmark for cold late Oct and early Nov. In 1991 on Halloween DFW had a high of 43F. 1993 it snowed a few days earlier. A month later in 1993 was the Leon Lett TG game.

Guess it is time to start model watching more closely. Time to switch from looking at the tropics for interesting weather to now looking to NW NA and the GoA along with SW US. I saw 41 on my weather station this morning so maybe the next front will bring a frost.

[Ntxw]

Recent model runs (still far range) have trended with stronger -NAO which slides the core of cold air east. Euro still favors a cutoff

[Cpv17]

These models are on crack. We go from having healthy rain chances to no rain chance at all in a matter of just 24 hours.

[gboudx]

This is from Jeff Lindner this morning:

Enjoyable fall weather will be replaced with an increase in moisture by Friday along with increasing rain chances.

A strong upper level trough will be developing across the western US as high pressure over TX begins to move eastward. This will allow onshore SE winds to return to SE TX starting as early as Wednesday and increasing into Thursday and Friday. A short wave trough will approach the area on Friday and combine with increasing moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms should be moving rapidly toward the NW at 15-20mph which should keep rainfall amounts on the light side.

More interesting period Saturday into Sunday as a warm front approaches the coast on Saturday and the air mass becomes increasingly unstable along with increasing 0-6km shear values. Warm front will move inland over SE TX and cross the region Saturday during peak heating which is raising the potential for the development of strong to severe storms.

Strong trough will approach from the west on Sunday with strong dynamic lift spreading across the area with the cold front. Could see widespread development of thunderstorms on Sunday with heavy rainfall and a severe weather risk. Will need to pay attention to the threat for the upper level trough to slow or attempt to cut off briefing over the SW US slowing the frontal boundary over SE TX and keeping rain chances going into early next week.

Upcoming weather Friday-Sunday could produce heavy rainfall and severe weather across the region…details will help determine how wet and stormy of a forecast may be needed this weekend as the upper air system begins to move into the upper air sampling network over Alaska over the next couple of days.