Texas Fall 2017

[weatherdude1108]

Getting a nice garden variety thunderstorm right now.

September monthly total, just a tad over 3.50"

If October can keep up and deliver, this rain miser will be very pleased.

I got a nice downpour here at the office about an hour ago. Hoping it rained at house. The roofers were at the house for five hours yesterday fixing the flashing and wood around the chimney, where the head roofer said he could see where the leak was coming in. He said it is fixed, with custom flashing and chimney cover, new wood around it with shingles, etc. I said we'll see when we get rain tomorrow if it still drips through ceiling. He seems confident. Anyway, I'm 80% convinced it is fixed. They were there a while. Anyway, I should know in about an hour if there is still a leak or not. My better half and I were both hoping for a heavy rain at the house to test their handiwork.

[gpsnowman]

And boom goes the dynamite. A thunderstorm is overhead!!!!! Hooray rain!! Irving area. Lightning is very close, time to go in now.

[weatherdude1108]

Got a half inch of rain today through multiple rounds. No roof leak!

[Brent]

Forget fall! The 0z GFS brings winter around 300 hours... 30s in DFW!!! Freezing temperatures in the Red River counties and Wichita Falls

Oh and snow in Amarillo

[Ntxw]

If only it wasn't 300 hrs

But the reason GFS is so cold is because it has a big -EPO Alaskan ridge. Euro does too at the end of its run.

[Tireman4]

If only it wasn't 300 hrs

But the reason GFS is so cold is because it has a big -EPO Alaskan ridge. Euro does too at the end of its run.

Well now that is more like it.....(doing my best Beavis and Butthead)..Yes! Yes! Yes! ( after watching an exploding bus in a Plasmatics video)

[Brent]

If only it wasn't 300 hrs

But the reason GFS is so cold is because it has a big -EPO Alaskan ridge. Euro does too at the end of its run.

Hopefully it's a sign of things to come in any case

[Ntxw]

I'm starting to see signs of a true La Nina global weather pattern. Last season was a Nina but the Super Nino really threw a wrench in it. From November to Jan the North Pacific cooled dramatically via deep Aleutian low and the huge PDO spike (ninoesque) flow of Pacific air while at times we had Nina forcing try to break it up. I don't see the North Pacific cooling like it did late last fall into a Nino like spatial SST pattern inducing +EPO of last winter

The cold streak from Japan/Kamchatka to the GOA is not typical for La Nina late last fall but rather for stronger El Nino. That was probably an early sign of doom




And of course it was colder in the central tropical Pacific than eastern basin. Quite the opposite this coming season.

[Brent]

12z GFS again dumping winter like temperatures in fantasy land, a cold rain at day 14. The snow stays in New Mexico

[starsfan65]

12z GFS again dumping winter like temperatures in fantasy land, a cold rain at day 14. The snow stays in New Mexico

I take it!!

[Brent]

I dunno whether fantasy land will happen or not, but next week looks amazing. The Euro has below normal temps for days next week starting Tuesday. Probably some 40s for lows outside of DFW and highs struggling to get much above the low 70s.

and another front incoming at day 10

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I remember when the Aleutian low plummeted temps for the region south of Alaska. Last few days the 1+2 region has warmed drastically. Hopefully this wont continue. I noticed some east winds in the region, but it shouldnt last for long. Nino it is.

Wouldnt mind if it stays cool off the coast of Mexico as well, or at least not much above normal

[starsfan65]

It is a quiet thread.

[dhweather]

300+ hour gfs has a tropical cyclone from the gulf hitting Texas

12Z and 18Z today have it taking a very Imra-esque path. Fortunately, that's more than 96 hours out, so its probably wrong.

One week later, we have said tropical system, Nate, headed for LA/MS. Not shabby for 300 hours out.

[Cpv17]

It is a quiet thread.

Yep. Nothing much to talk about. The weather has been pretty dull for the most part. Boring pattern.

[starsfan65]

It is a quiet thread.

Yep. Nothing much to talk about. The weather has been pretty dull for the most part. Boring pattern.

It will change soon. i hope!!

[Ntxw]

Yes in large part this week remains above normal...quite boring. Next week has hints of front and fall but models are wavering.

The first few days of Oct has DFW over 8F above normal. As I mentioned earlier its not high 90s or 100s but it is Oct so well into 80s is above. Lows should be getting into the 50s which we are missing by a lot. We are risking another warm fall since Sept was above. Hopefully we can make a comeback second half though my bets would be above normal again.

[starsfan65]

Yes in large part this week remains above normal...quite boring. Next week has hints of front and fall but models are wavering.

The first few days of Oct has DFW over 8F above normal. As I mentioned earlier its not high 90s or 100s but it is Oct so well into 80s is above. Lows should be getting into the 50s which we are missing by a lot. We are risking another warm fall since Sept was above. Hopefully we can make a comeback second half though my bets would be above normal again.

Why are the models wavering?

[Tejas89]

You know we may be in trouble when the local mets advertise a "big cool down".. to the 70's which is actually normal.

El Nino, La Nina, La Nada, .. whatever, you're probably safe betting on a warmer than average fall and winter.

[Brent]

GFS totally lost the front next week, CMC has trended warmer, Euro is our last hope and its been all over the place with the tropics east of us, had Nate going to Florida and now it goes to New Orleans.

the Euro still has a front but its also going warmer. It's somewhat below normal Tue/Wed then warms back up.

GFS is now ABOVE normal the entire 16 days..