These models are still over the place even 5 days out
I remember this being the case last winter as well. Specifically the arctic front we had before Christmas where the models were sniffing it out long-term, lost it in the mid-term, then latched on again in the short-term. But that wasn't the only time that happened, and iirc, the models have done this going back more than last winter as well.
This year, we're in a La Nina. Anyone who's lived in Texas during a La Nina knows the drill. Expect warmer than normal temps, and below normal precip. Anything that deviates on either temps or precip, consider it lucky.