Texas Fall 2017

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gboudx
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1001 Postby gboudx » Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:21 am

Brent wrote:[
These models are still over the place even 5 days out


I remember this being the case last winter as well. Specifically the arctic front we had before Christmas where the models were sniffing it out long-term, lost it in the mid-term, then latched on again in the short-term. But that wasn't the only time that happened, and iirc, the models have done this going back more than last winter as well.

This year, we're in a La Nina. Anyone who's lived in Texas during a La Nina knows the drill. Expect warmer than normal temps, and below normal precip. Anything that deviates on either temps or precip, consider it lucky.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1002 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:04 am

"Cold" front pushing through now, no more 80s?
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1003 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:09 am

bubba hotep wrote:"Cold" front pushing through now, no more 80s?

I’ll believe it when I see it...
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1004 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:16 am

Front is through, I can hear the wind howling outside.

Meanwhile out of curiosity I looked at Phoenix (one of the hottest recording sites with lots of ppl in US). Though they are not consistently warm in the cooler months like SFL for instance but still a desert. The latest 90F or greater day in Phoenix is Nov 15 and the earliest is Feb 17. That means they have two months, December and January with no 90F days. DFW has one every month of the year now. Probably one of the few if not the only location in contiguous (perhaps all of the US) with such a distinction. Though admittedly I have not gone through all major sites.

Edit: Vegas doesn't either. Their max high in December is 78 and 77 in January. Surprisingly they don't get very hot in the winter.

Having the winds blow from the SW coming in via Chihuahuan desert can make things really hot.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1005 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:34 am

bubba hotep wrote:"Cold" front pushing through now, no more 80s?


Lol i remember when there would be no more 90s in October either

Man that wind is howling
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1006 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:08 pm

The Pacific starts to look a little better weeks 2 and 3 on forward. More classic Nina and SE ridge. Of course there is always trouble of late with warmth but I'd take my shots with trough out west coming out than trough off the west coast.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1007 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:11 pm

Ensembles have been showing this but now the Euro is digging by the end of the run, 00z GFS had a similar look. The question is will the models hold onto this?

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1008 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:17 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Ensembles have been showing this but now the Euro is digging by the end of the run, 00z GFS had a similar look. The question is will the models hold onto this?

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111 ... am_240.png


I am hopeful this retrogression of the ridge pattern will take place. We will pay for it on the front end but if we can get it to move in December then even better. Snow climo is better in December anyway. One thing I do want to mention is the modeled recent of lowering heights over the Aleutians may not pan out. This is evident by the warmer than normal SST's below the islands and burgeoning Nina. Think the models were overzealous with the Aleutian low replacing the ridge.

Also as a reminder to all we will be moving into the Texas Winter Thread come December 1st which is a little less than 2 weeks away!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1009 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:37 pm

Looks like the models are starting to see the expected retrogression back west of the pattern. Wish we had a more positive PDO to promote ridging out west, but we have many positive signals as we get deeper into winter.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1010 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:26 am

The GFS is definitely hinting at more interesting times(at least rain and colder air) in fantasy land(aka the beginning of December).. now granted its fantasy land but its been here several runs now.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1011 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:03 am

Nice and frosty outside to start Thanksgiving week.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1012 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:38 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:Nice and frosty outside to start Thanksgiving week.

Same here. Nice cold and frosty start of the week, but unfortunately looks like a warm end.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1013 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:11 am

Watching the ops beyond a few days has been worthless here lately but the ensembles have been a little better. I'm pretty excited about the end of Nov beginning of Dec. since MJO 3/4 would favor west coast troughing. However, are the models over doing the MJO pulse?

Nina Phase 3 Dec
Image

Nina Phase 4 Dec
Image

EPS as we move into Dec

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1014 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:44 am

Phase 3 and 4 are drastically different. Look at that blocking in northern Europe, wow. I like a western trough right now, need to mountain snow!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1015 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:49 pm

Euro has plenty of warmth especially after thanksgiving no sign of a front through the tuesday after
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1016 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:40 pm

Brent wrote:Euro has plenty of warmth especially after thanksgiving no sign of a front through the tuesday after


Yep and the record grows...

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1017 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:17 pm

Ah when will the records we dont want to set end lol
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1018 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:26 pm

Channel 8 just said we could easily go 330 days without a freeze lmao
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1019 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:11 am

Boring pattern as far as the eye can see. 60's and 70's with no rain for a while. Yeah!! :roll:
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1020 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:04 am

Picked up our second freeze of the season, paired with a pretty decent frost this morning. I’m not a fan of cold mornings and warm afternoons, especially working solely outside.
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