Texas Fall 2017

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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1041 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:04 pm

JDawg512 wrote:
Brent wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Might be one of those Ninas where we get a couple deep arctic dumps with some precip in an otherwise warm winter. And who knows when or if that will happen. 2010 similarities? If we can get anything close to Super Bowl week I will call this winter a win. The standards have been lowered unfortunately.


2010-2011 is probably the one I'm hoping for now it was warm to start to(mid 80s right before Christmas) and then had the super bowl week and by mid February winter was over

The other analogs were basically wall to wall warmth and no snow



I'm not hoping for anything like 2011. The nastiest fires we have ever seen. It's already a given that we are in for a dry winter at this point.


I was speaking of the winter but you're right its a terrible analog otherwise

Sadly unless something drastic changes were headed that direction
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1042 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:27 pm

A cold front will move through Central Texas early Wednesday morning, leaving brisk north winds 10 to 15 mph and mostly sunny conditions in it's wake. This will be the coolest day of the week, with many areas struggling into the 50s by afternoon for high temperatures. The wind will make it feel even cooler. :ggreen:

Short Term
The current weather pattern across the CONUS is defined by a
prominent upper ridge over the western third of the nation with a
large scale trough dominating the rest of the country. This
places North and Central Texas beneath a northwest flow aloft
regime, which is depicted well on satellite by the large steady
fetch of cirrus spilling southeast from the Pacific Northwest.

At the surface, we await the arrival of a cold front currently
stretching across the Central Plains. The front will get a nice
southward push today as a shortwave drops southeast out of
Colorado, with the boundary reaching the Red River early this
afternoon and clearing the southern CWA early this evening. The
strongest pressure rises will occur well behind the initial
frontal passage, so winds will actually be stronger during the
late evening and overnight hours compared to the initial passage
of the cold front.

Temperatures should remain above freezing tonight, but sub-
freezing wind chills are likely during the overnight hours for
areas generally north of I-20 where lows in the mid and upper 30s
will be common, along with wind speeds of 15 to 20 MPH.

Otherwise, some low POPs have been added across the far southeast
counties tonight where post-frontal showers will be possible with
the passage of the shortwave.


Long Term
North and Central Texas will remain sandwiched between the deep
latitudinal trough over the Eastern CONUS and the upper
ridge over the Western CONUS. A brief transition to breezy
and warmer conditions will occur Friday with occasionally gusty
south winds and mostly-partly sunny skies. After chilly start to
the day Friday morning in the 40s, with a few 30s in protected
areas, highs will rebound quickly well into the 70s most areas as
the Gulf of Mexico remains shut down with a dry airmass hanging
around. By Friday night, the flow aloft will orient northwest as
another shortwave drives southeast across the Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys. This disturbance will support another reinforcing
cold front through the Southern Plains and our area by Saturday
morning. After a brisk and cool start to the morning, highs should
rebound between 65 and 75 degrees and once again, the bulk of
stronger cold low level advection remains off to the northeast.
Winds should come down by afternoon, as yet another surface high
builds in from the north. Partly sunny conditions will prevail as
periodic rounds of high cloudiness pass across in the progressive
northwest flow aloft.

The high cloudiness should help keep radiational cooling
processes limited somewhat Saturday night, but will still go
cooler than guidance with surface high pressure settling across
the area. Lows will cool rapidly down into the 40s Sunday
morning, with protected areas seeing a few readings down in the
30s. However, as our dry and progressive late Autumn pattern
continues, folks returning from their holiday travels Sunday will
be treated to mostly sunny and slightly above normal temperatures
as the upper pattern dampens with the upper ridge building across
the the region. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s are expected Sunday
afternoon, though the southerly breezes may make it feel a tad
cooler. Low level warm advection and an upper ridge overhead will
lend to breezy and above normal conditions moving into early next
week. Cool mornings between 45 and 55 degrees will modify and warm
quickly into the upper 60s and 70s. Modified moisture will return
northward, but will be shallow with no rainfall expected.


Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1043 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:09 pm

Not much out there so kinda grasping at straws here. The latest GFS and Euro both dig the trough a good bit next week with a possible closed low crossing the state late next week. Those are always something to watch during the cold season. Maybe a decent rain/storm event the following week also. Not seeing a big Arctic shot yet. Wednesday morning will likely be my 6th frost though (3 freezes included) before TDay so not terrible I guess.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1044 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:11 pm

EWX mentions next week with a possible rain event, but confidence low due to La Nina, of course. Would be multiple storm chances if it were El Nino with a strong Pacific tap.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 212022
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
222 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
A cold front and prefrontal trough currently moving into the Hill
Country sweep across South Central Texas early this evening. Weak
isentropic lift briefly develops as an upper level trough and jet
streak move across our area tonight. Isolated showers are possible
across eastern areas this evening into overnight and have maintained
slight chance POPs there. Light rainfall amounts are expected, less
than 1/4 inch. Somewhat breezy conditions develop after the frontal
passage as high pressure builds in due to a tight surface pressure
gradient and continue into Wednesday. Below normal temperatures
return Wednesday. Surface high settles over our area late Wednesday
with winds subsiding during the afternoon. This leads to efficient
radiational cooling Wednesday night as winds become light along with
low dewpoints and clear skies allowing for well below normal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The surface high drifts off to the east with a warming trend to
above normal temperatures for Thanksgiving Day through Saturday. An
upper level trough passing by well to our north will drag a weak cold
front into our area late Saturday into night. Only a slight cool down
expected as cold advection is mostly shunted to our northeast. Front
lifts back north on Sunday with above normal temperatures continuing
Monday into Tuesday with lower level moisture increasing.

Just beyond this forecast period, some models/ensembles are showing
a rain event due to another cold front and upper level trough moving
across our area during the middle of next week.
However, being in a
La Nina pattern, confidence is low.

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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1045 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:57 pm

The models continue to flip around in the longer range and have trended back towards a more active look heading into December. Was the false start a couple of days ago a classic case of models being too fast with a pattern change? It still looks like we still see some tropical forcing with the MJO moving through 3/4 but there might be some KW signal mixed in. Regardless, the tropical forcing might be just enough to buck the la nina background and give Texas an active start to December.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1046 Postby JDawg512 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:34 pm

Brent wrote:
JDawg512 wrote:
Brent wrote:
2010-2011 is probably the one I'm hoping for now it was warm to start to(mid 80s right before Christmas) and then had the super bowl week and by mid February winter was over

The other analogs were basically wall to wall warmth and no snow



I'm not hoping for anything like 2011. The nastiest fires we have ever seen. It's already a given that we are in for a dry winter at this point.


I was speaking of the winter but you're right its a terrible analog otherwise

Sadly unless something drastic changes were headed that direction


That's true specifically speaking for the winter period only. The sad truth is the last significant snow event we had in Austin played a role in how dry dead vegetation ultimately got. I'm starting to side with Team Heat Miser in that I'd rather see average to a little above average temps if we can't get some good moisture taps. Dry freezes or freezes followed by long dry periods do a number on vegetation. Considering the upper pattern and storm track, it looks unlikely that we will see much for the rest of this year.

If only I trapped a bit of Harvey in a jar (only enough to give us a nice rainfall with no flooding), then I could have released it when we need it the most. Wishful thinking... :roll:
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1047 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:36 pm

JDawg512 wrote:
Brent wrote:
JDawg512 wrote:

I'm not hoping for anything like 2011. The nastiest fires we have ever seen. It's already a given that we are in for a dry winter at this point.


I was speaking of the winter but you're right its a terrible analog otherwise

Sadly unless something drastic changes were headed that direction


That's true specifically speaking for the winter period only. The sad truth is the last significant snow event we had in Austin played a role in how dry dead vegetation ultimately got. I'm starting to side with Team Heat Miser in that I'd rather see average to a little above average temps if we can't get some good moisture taps. Dry freezes or freezes followed by long dry periods do a number on vegetation. Considering the upper pattern and storm track, it looks unlikely that we will see much for the rest of this year.

If only I trapped a bit of Harvey in a jar (only enough to give us a nice rainfall with no flooding), then I could have released it when we need it the most. Wishful thinking... :roll:


I don't know what the end result of winter will be but I definitely don't feel optimistic(I'd love to be wrong though but I'm tired of false hopes). It's been a horrible couple of years and heck, right now, when is it even going to rain again?

its truly amazing how boring the weather has been since Harvey left the state. Who would have thought summer would be the most interesting season?? lol
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1048 Postby JDawg512 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:41 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:EWX mentions next week with a possible rain event, but confidence low due to La Nina, of course. Would be multiple storm chances if it were El Nino with a strong Pacific tap.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 212022
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
222 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
A cold front and prefrontal trough currently moving into the Hill
Country sweep across South Central Texas early this evening. Weak
isentropic lift briefly develops as an upper level trough and jet
streak move across our area tonight. Isolated showers are possible
across eastern areas this evening into overnight and have maintained
slight chance POPs there. Light rainfall amounts are expected, less
than 1/4 inch. Somewhat breezy conditions develop after the frontal
passage as high pressure builds in due to a tight surface pressure
gradient and continue into Wednesday. Below normal temperatures
return Wednesday. Surface high settles over our area late Wednesday
with winds subsiding during the afternoon. This leads to efficient
radiational cooling Wednesday night as winds become light along with
low dewpoints and clear skies allowing for well below normal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The surface high drifts off to the east with a warming trend to
above normal temperatures for Thanksgiving Day through Saturday. An
upper level trough passing by well to our north will drag a weak cold
front into our area late Saturday into night. Only a slight cool down
expected as cold advection is mostly shunted to our northeast. Front
lifts back north on Sunday with above normal temperatures continuing
Monday into Tuesday with lower level moisture increasing.

Just beyond this forecast period, some models/ensembles are showing
a rain event due to another cold front and upper level trough moving
across our area during the middle of next week.
However, being in a
La Nina pattern, confidence is low.




I'd agree normally about El Niño, but it was an abnormally dry winter of 15/16. Last winter was better in the moisture department. Can't we push La Niña away???!!! I can't take this anymore... :wall:
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1049 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:07 am

La Nina doesn't bode well for summer either... hopefully not 2011(I'd like to think that's a once a generation thing) but I'm guessing it'll be a lot hotter/drier than this summer.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1050 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:22 am

Its not even December and you guys are giving up on winter. Relax fellas, its super early. Even 3 months from now we still have a chance at freezes and cold shots in SE Tx.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1051 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:51 am

It’s chilly out there! Picked up our 3rd freeze of the season. Wind chill is 23-24.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1052 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:06 am

A couple of things to point out, the last 4 NTX winters were back to back cold, followed by back to back warm. La Nina is expected to remain weak, but it's not known how long she will last. The forecast is to move back to ENSO Netural by spring which points to netural summer or even the onset of El Nino.

Winter hasn't even started, and while I do think December will be a little above average temp wise, I also think we'll see some arctic air make it's way into NTX as well. The only thing I've found consistant with La Nina's is they are drier than normal, as for temps she can go either way.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1053 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:23 am

I agree with the post above precip in Ninas is pretty consistent below normal. Usually there is a blast or two that is potent. For example would be last winter. Warmest ever but still coldest low at DFW since 2009-2011 period in a singular Jan blast. Second year Ninas do tilt warm most of the time except for a small handfull. If we can score a blast or two that lasts a week or two is probably top expectations. Gboudx put it well, anything else is bonus and luck.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1054 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:37 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Its not even December and you guys are giving up on winter. Relax fellas, its super early. Even 3 months from now we still have a chance at freezes and cold shots in SE Tx.


I wouldn't say I'm giving up its just I have no expectations here anymore. Less disappointment that way if nothing happens

The GFS is definitely a lot cooler after the front early next week throughout the run, no real cold though
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1055 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:53 pm

Rumbles in the ensemble world of a big pattern buckle in the EPO and Arctic regions to kick off December. Surprised not much discussion on this. The pattern yields reflects of cold outbreaks in the darkest times of the year

CFSv2 has gone all out cold for North America January and February. Guidance is quietly trending to -EPO/-AO style winter.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1056 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:16 pm

Are we headed towards a low temp bust tonight? NWS forecast low is 38, but as of 10:00 pm we are already at 39 with no winds and clear skies.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1057 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:40 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:Are we headed towards a low temp bust tonight? NWS forecast low is 38, but as of 10:00 pm we are already at 39 with no winds and clear skies.


I wish the airport would freeze, I'm tired of hearing about the first freeze lol

But it is definitely colder than I expected already
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1058 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Nov 23, 2017 6:26 am

Nice cold Thanksgiving morning with temps in the upper 20s and low 30s across E TX.
December tends to yield the coldest temps as the sun is at its lowest point. So blocking up north will likely yield some true cold. Hoping for troughing to our SW at the same time though preferably we avoid a Dec 2013 type event.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1059 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:11 am

Next couple weeks look "meh." Like the positive post from Ntx though. Encouraging. I am confident we will have a very large cold outbreak at least once. Whether it sticks around or not, no idea. From October to now, there have been many occasions where heights built up to impressive levels in the arctic, the alignment just hasnt been in our favor. If the ridge is a few hundred miles east/west, could mean a really nice cold snap.

The fronts have been brisker all month too, i think this has to do with solid snow cover in NA. This is something thats REALLY positive for us. We need it for the cold to make it here. Stay positive fellas! Lotta football left!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1060 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:13 am

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

It was 36 this morning at the Casa, fixing to fire up the smoker for the bird. Even though I love cold weather I am happy to not be doing this out in it. Have a safe holiday and just chill. :cold:
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