Texas Fall 2017

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aggiecutter
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1061 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:45 am

29 this morning in Texarkana. That was our 4th freeze this fall.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1062 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:21 am

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families! What a beautiful start to the day in the 30s and warming up to the upper 60s and 70s for some. Despite that it will be perfect for all who wants to either enjoy it indoors or outdoors.

Here's to hoping for an active, wintry period from here to Christmas and beyond to put all of us in the Holiday feel :D
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1063 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:02 pm

Happy Thanksgiving from Uncertain Texas. Caddo Lake is gorgeous this time of year and the wife and I enjoyed coffee at sunrise in the below freezing air. Hope everyone enjoys family, food, and football today. A wintry December is coming!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1064 Postby JDawg512 » Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:13 pm

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. May you all have a wonderful day filled with family and friends.

If only it was raining then it would be perfect. Ohwell, I guess I'll just take the hose and spray water in the air to give the effect of rain...
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1065 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Nov 23, 2017 5:49 pm

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

One of the things I'm thankful for is this board. Enjoy some pumpkin pie this evening and let's start dreaming of a white Christmas!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1066 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:58 am

Quiet last week to November. Not much to discuss. November will finish above normal with a shot at top 5. Solidifies fall as much above normal S-O-N again possibly top 5.

In other news Mt Agung in Bali is erupting after months of speculation and rumbles. No VEI 5 or higher has occured in the tropics since Pinatubo. If indeed we get a more explosive Plinian type eruption coupled with low solar may cool the globe some. Winters tends to string cold when you get these two events in tandem.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1067 Postby texas1836 » Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:23 am

Ntxw wrote:Quiet last week to November. Not much to discuss. November will finish above normal with a shot at top 5. Solidifies fall as much above normal S-O-N again possibly top 5.

In other news Mt Agung in Bali is erupting after months of speculation and rumbles. No VEI 5 or higher has occured in the tropics since Pinatubo. If indeed we get a more explosive Plinian type eruption coupled with low solar may cool the globe some. Winters tends to string cold when you get these two events in tandem.


Volcanic Winter?!?! If it pans out like you say, Winter could be extended. Not the Tambora type, but cooler anyway.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1068 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Nov 27, 2017 10:35 am

texas1836 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Quiet last week to November. Not much to discuss. November will finish above normal with a shot at top 5. Solidifies fall as much above normal S-O-N again possibly top 5.

In other news Mt Agung in Bali is erupting after months of speculation and rumbles. No VEI 5 or higher has occured in the tropics since Pinatubo. If indeed we get a more explosive Plinian type eruption coupled with low solar may cool the globe some. Winters tends to string cold when you get these two events in tandem.


Volcanic Winter?!?! If it pans out like you say, Winter could be extended. Not the Tambora type, but cooler anyway.


Remember, and this happened, this is just a scenario...the Year Without a Summer...(not even going to say that this will remotely happen)..

.Evidence suggests that the anomaly was predominantly a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in the Dutch East Indies (the largest eruption in at least 1,300 years after the extreme weather events of 535–536), perhaps exacerbated by the 1814 eruption of Mayon in the Philippines. The Earth had already been in a centuries-long period of global cooling that started in the 14th century. Known today as the Little Ice Age, it had already caused considerable agricultural distress in Europe. The Little Ice Age's existing cooling was exacerbated by the eruption of Tambora, which occurred near the end of the Little Ice Age.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1069 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:45 pm

The Nina signature is the most apparent in this graphic. We know what that brings, what I believe is hurting us here in Texas is the warm water off the coast of Mexico. Need this to dissipate. This is pro-high development in this region which brings us warmth and dry air. I think its helping to steer storms away from our region too. This might be typically of Nina though, i'm not entirely sure, but I dont like it. Still early in the season, if we can offshore winds or north winds to blow along this coast, upwelling will occur and rapidly cool this region off.

Image

In other things ive noticed, the main High which steers almost everything east of the Philippines, west of Hawaii, is shifting eastward in all the models. The way the wave train has been progressing, i think this development is very good for us. It aligns the NPAC high in a more favorable spot to position the trough to its east in our area.

Ready for this potential blocking scenario they keep talking about to!

Block lock and drop it!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1070 Postby aggiecutter » Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:52 pm

Big rains on the way for the first week of December:

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1071 Postby Brent » Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:20 pm

warmest year on record at DFW so far...

4 of the top 5 warmest years in the last 6 years also.

We need a big pattern change in December
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1072 Postby Tejas89 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:34 am

FWD mentioning a pattern change late next week with colder air surging and lingering for a few days.

Lakes are starting to suffer from this mini-drought (for now).
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1073 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:11 am

NWS FTW

Several references have already been made to the potential for
significantly cooler air arriving next week, and while this
potential is not completely gone, significant swings between the
models and each forecast run continue to lend little confidence
into the pattern for next week. All of the models do agree that a
stronger trough will affect the western half of the country next
week. However, with each model run the past few days, the models
have differed on the track and timing of this upper system.
Mean ensemble members have also shown significant swings.
Yesterday`s 00Z ensemble model runs favored the upper level
trough stalling and almost dissipating over the southwestern
CONUS, but tonight they favor a more progressive pattern which is
closer to the operational model runs. The models and their
ensembles do seem to agree colder air will arrive next week, and
there will be a chance for rain with this system, but the main
question that remains is when will the rain and cold air arrive.
Tonight`s 00Z operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS are 48+ hours
different on the arrival of the colder air. Given the
inconsistencies between models and each forecast run, have kept
next week dry and hedged toward the warmer side of guidance until
we can get better agreement on next week`s pattern. Looking a
little farther out, there are indications that if (or when) the
upper level trough progresses through the Plains, it may maintain
residency over the eastern half of the CONUS for at least a few days
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1074 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:15 am

Image
We have had a dry fall. Most of North and Central Texas have received less than half of their normal rainfall. Through November 27, DFW has only received 3.40 inches which is only 37 percent of their normal 9.25 inches. Waco has only received 2.95 inches which is only 31 percent of their normal 9.52 inches. Temple has only received 2.08 inches which is only 21 percent of their normal 9.71 inches. Sherman (co-op site) has recorded 3.67 inches of rain which is only 29 percent of their normal 12.58 inches.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1075 Postby Portastorm » Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:06 am

Same story down south here in South Central Texas ... new maps should be out later today, I think. Anyhow, you'll notice the Hill Country is really in need of some rain.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1076 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:51 am

Like clockwork. As soon as Harvey left in August, the faucet essentially shut off, aside from periodic episodes of rain here and there, to and fro, with mostly dry and warm in between.

It's almost like Hermine in September 2010, then the faucet shut off in October 2010, then we all know what happened that Spring and Summer of 2011. Praying it's not that bad! I think conditions were slightly different back then (not sure). Still. The trend is NOT our friend.
:roll:
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1077 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:18 am

It's La Nina fellas. We're going to be in a drought, no doubt.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1078 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:34 pm

Long range, but this should excite you guys
Image
Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1079 Postby WacoWx » Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:58 pm

...GO ON!!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#1080 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:26 pm

cold is well and good but we need rain
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