STORM2K

Ntxw wrote:Quiet last week to November. Not much to discuss. November will finish above normal with a shot at top 5. Solidifies fall as much above normal S-O-N again possibly top 5.

In other news Mt Agung in Bali is erupting after months of speculation and rumbles. No VEI 5 or higher has occured in the tropics since Pinatubo. If indeed we get a more explosive Plinian type eruption coupled with low solar may cool the globe some. Winters tends to string cold when you get these two events in tandem.

texas1836 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Quiet last week to November. Not much to discuss. November will finish above normal with a shot at top 5. Solidifies fall as much above normal S-O-N again possibly top 5.

In other news Mt Agung in Bali is erupting after months of speculation and rumbles. No VEI 5 or higher has occured in the tropics since Pinatubo. If indeed we get a more explosive Plinian type eruption coupled with low solar may cool the globe some. Winters tends to string cold when you get these two events in tandem.

Volcanic Winter?!?! If it pans out like you say, Winter could be extended. Not the Tambora type, but cooler anyway.

Several references have already been made to the potential for
significantly cooler air arriving next week, and while this
potential is not completely gone, significant swings between the
models and each forecast run continue to lend little confidence
into the pattern for next week. All of the models do agree that a
stronger trough will affect the western half of the country next
week. However, with each model run the past few days, the models
have differed on the track and timing of this upper system.
Mean ensemble members have also shown significant swings.
Yesterday`s 00Z ensemble model runs favored the upper level
trough stalling and almost dissipating over the southwestern
CONUS, but tonight they favor a more progressive pattern which is
closer to the operational model runs. The models and their
ensembles do seem to agree colder air will arrive next week, and
there will be a chance for rain with this system, but the main
question that remains is when will the rain and cold air arrive.
Tonight`s 00Z operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS are 48+ hours
different on the arrival of the colder air. Given the
inconsistencies between models and each forecast run, have kept
next week dry and hedged toward the warmer side of guidance until
we can get better agreement on next week`s pattern. Looking a
little farther out, there are indications that if (or when) the
upper level trough progresses through the Plains, it may maintain
residency over the eastern half of the CONUS for at least a few days