STORM2K

Brent wrote:cold is well and good but we need rain

I hope for both, though the rain will likely be in short supply with the cold eastern Pacific we have. Some SW troughing should help get us some moisture though.

Looks like snow in the area on Pearl Harbor Day, well the Edwards plateau area and points south/east of the Big Bend in Mexico. Can't wait!

More optimistic QPF chances with north Texas, with one to two inch possibilities over the next two weeks. One inch or less probabilities in central parts of the state. Houston metro area gets about an inch. All subject to change in the next run.

Good morning. I'll just leave this right here.

Most of the mid-range models are showing a big arctic outbreak for the early to mid December range.

I hate to poo-poo on the parade but I have noticed a trend of the models showing a large trough over the eastern CONUS and a cutoff low, only to then blend the two into one large trough over the east and no cutoff low. I see what y'all are showing there but ... well ... I'm skeptical right now that it will verify. And it really sucks because we are getting desperate for rain.

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

I hate to poo-poo on the parade but I have noticed a trend of the models showing a large trough over the eastern CONUS and a cutoff low, only to then blend the two into one large trough over the east and no cutoff low. I see what y'all are showing there but ... well ... I'm skeptical right now that it will verify. And it really sucks because we are getting desperate for rain.

Correct, typically when they say "Polar Vortex," it doesnt mean crazy cold for us, it's more east based. I'm more excited of the the blocking signal that keeps popping up. Cold air is coming down for sure.

We may get a one off event or two with big rain, but you know that during la nina we cant expect much rain. Water restrictions will be coming in the spring im sure.

Tomorrow is the last day to post in this thread and then will be closed for open discussion. Much talk is already in the winter thread as December looks to be interesting ahead!

Quick Link to "Texas Winter 2017-2018":
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=118636

Well this will be my last post in this thread. I'm one angry rain miser right now. Not a drop of rain to finish out November... Grrr.

Adios Texas Fall. You were too warm and dry. Now on to a cold and wet winter!!!!

The good thing I can say about Fall 2017 is that the leaves in my part of the world changed color earlier this autumn than last one. So that is a good thing. And I had a nice cold morning on Thanksgiving when I got up at 4 am and started smoking the traditional brisket and turkey for patrons of the Portastorm Weather Center. So there's that. LOL. Otherwise, yeah, no rain ... adios autumn. Bring on the cold and wet!

I'm going to make the call a little early time wise but most discussion is already over in the winter thread anyway..so with that

This thread is now Closed for discussion as we have transitioned to the Winter thread for December-January-February. All general discussion posts will be moved. Thank you all as we close out meteorological Fall

If you need to find the thread ngturner1 has the hotlink above