STORM2K

Ntxw wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:For the month of November we have climbed up to +5.4 for the monthly average. Models are all over the place as Ntxw stated, nothing is concrete as far next week goes, but I will take normal temps over above any day of the week.

Its been really hard to overcome these fast above normal starts. DFW is outnumbering cool months with warm months 12:1 since 2015. That is an unfathomable number. And we thought the warmer months in the 2000s 2:1 was wicked, small compared to now.

It really is crazy. Also, I believe we have probably shattered records for the least amount of record lows durung that timeframe. I was thinking we would start to see a global step down post super nino but temps just spiked again in October.

bubba hotep wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:For the month of November we have climbed up to +5.4 for the monthly average. Models are all over the place as Ntxw stated, nothing is concrete as far next week goes, but I will take normal temps over above any day of the week.

Its been really hard to overcome these fast above normal starts. DFW is outnumbering cool months with warm months 12:1 since 2015. That is an unfathomable number. And we thought the warmer months in the 2000s 2:1 was wicked, small compared to now.

It really is crazy. Also, I believe we have probably shattered records for the least amount of record lows durung that timeframe. I was thinking we would start to see a global step down post super nino but temps just spiked again in October.

Exactly, Super El Nino was more than just a once in 50 year event, it has had lingering effects on the global weather patterns. I think it's one reason why the upper level winds have remained warm for the last 24 months, and it may take another year before we see any global step down in temps. I still don't see this winter being as warm as last winter, and while we my not see the average number of freezes (33) here in NTX, we will see more than the (14) we got last winter.

What the heck kind of a system does the Euro put into the GOM next week? Not sure i recall seeing something like that.

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:What the heck kind of a system does the Euro put into the GOM next week? Not sure i recall seeing something like that.

Cat 5 in the Gulf?

Tireman4 wrote:

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:What the heck kind of a system does the Euro put into the GOM next week? Not sure i recall seeing something like that.

Cat 5 in the Gulf?

Frontogenesis-related closed low over the Gulf? If it were September on a decaying stationary front in the Gulf, I'd be more interested in it.

Model "burp"

The CPC map is ugly... above normal probs to close out November

Maybe some year things will change around here

Euro Weeklies control run looks like it has a really big snowstorm. It looks 09/10sih with snow starting in Texas then in a swath across the SE towards a big Noreaster. Outside of that, the mean is torchy looking for all of Dec...

Edit: 2nd half of Dec might not be all bad, some signs of a better pattern.

bubba hotep wrote:Euro Weeklies control run looks like it has a really big snowstorm. It looks 09/10sih with snow starting in Texas then in a swath across the SE towards a big Noreaster. Outside of that, the mean is torchy looking for all of Dec...

Edit: 2nd half of Dec might not be all bad, some signs of a better pattern.

I saw that posted elsewhere, it was valid for Christmas Eve of all days(the end of it east of here anyway)..

The 0z GFS is so boring, no real rain, nothing extreme on temps, but at least, there's no 80s after tomorrow.... progress?

Brent wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Euro Weeklies control run looks like it has a really big snowstorm. It looks 09/10sih with snow starting in Texas then in a swath across the SE towards a big Noreaster. Outside of that, the mean is torchy looking for all of Dec...

Edit: 2nd half of Dec might not be all bad, some signs of a better pattern.

I saw that posted elsewhere, it was valid for Christmas Eve of all days(the end of it east of here anyway)..

The 0z GFS is so boring, no real rain, nothing extreme on temps, but at least, there's no 80s after tomorrow.... progress?

Are we going to have any days below normal?

starsfan65 wrote:

Brent wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Euro Weeklies control run looks like it has a really big snowstorm. It looks 09/10sih with snow starting in Texas then in a swath across the SE towards a big Noreaster. Outside of that, the mean is torchy looking for all of Dec...

Edit: 2nd half of Dec might not be all bad, some signs of a better pattern.

I saw that posted elsewhere, it was valid for Christmas Eve of all days(the end of it east of here anyway)..

The 0z GFS is so boring, no real rain, nothing extreme on temps, but at least, there's no 80s after tomorrow.... progress?

Are we going to have any days below normal?

Not really. Average is low/mid 60s now, looks pretty close to that.

Brent wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:

Brent wrote:
I saw that posted elsewhere, it was valid for Christmas Eve of all days(the end of it east of here anyway)..

The 0z GFS is so boring, no real rain, nothing extreme on temps, but at least, there's no 80s after tomorrow.... progress?

Are we going to have any days below normal?

Not really. Average is low/mid 60s now, looks pretty close to that.

It looks lime a really bleh pattern setting up. Dry and seasonally mild. The biggest problem that I see is that the NPAC shuffles around and there is no cold air in WCAN. So, when we do get a break and a cold push comes the source region will be above normal. That happened a lot the last two winters.

12z Euro at the end of it's run has the -NAO sending a deep cold air mass into the E-US, Texas on the edges. Now if we can just send that western ridge more west. Of course...10 days out

DFW airport as of 2pm is at 83F. The record for the day is 87F back in 2013

Austin is 85 while Houston is 84

Yeah we need the wave train to kick back west just a bit more.


The Euro has shown the big -NAO trough twice in a row now

JB's winter forecast. Snowfall on the left and temps on the right.

Ntxw wrote:DFW airport as of 2pm is at 83F. The record for the day is 87F back in 2013

Austin is 85 while Houston is 84

84 here. The forecast for today was suppose to be 88, with it being 3:30, I don't see that happening. For tomorrow they've updated the high to 58 with N. winds at 25-30 mph and gusts at 40.

The 12z Euro EPS seems to offer some hope in the longer range, if only for some rain. Depending on evolution, there could also be some decent cold.

bubba hotep wrote:The 12z Euro EPS seems to offer some hope in the longer range, if only for some rain. Depending on evolution, there could also be some decent cold.

I hope it's right. We could really use some rain around here. Been quite dry lately.

0z GFS is back with a cooler Thanksgiving for the eastern half of the state. This s now almost comical

Still glancing blows Thanksgivings on forward with deep eastern trof

Ntxw wrote:0z GFS is back with a cooler Thanksgiving for the eastern half of the state. This s now almost comical

Still glancing blows Thanksgivings on forward with deep eastern trof

meanwhile the Euro has a warmup for Thanksgiving weekend, 50s Wednesday, but 70s Thursday/Friday and 80s Saturday before a front Even the GFS is near 80 next Saturday(that's the day it had the snowstorm on the 12z Wednesday run )

These models are still over the place even 5 days out