Top 10 Weather Events: 2017

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27370
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Top 10 Weather Events: 2017

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:15 pm

As I do every year, this is my list for the top 10 weather events in the US in 2017. It featured quite a few blockbuster events, with the tropics and fires dominating.

I never considered whether to limit this to the 48 or 50 states, but for completeness and due to the media attention of the #1 story, this is for the entire country.

1 - Hurricane Maria: The disaster continues to unfold in Puerto Rico, and the death toll is unknown. Regardless, this was a defining catastrophe unseen in the US since Katrina with extreme wind, surge, rain and mudslides, even if it did minimal impact in the Lower 48 (September 19-21; aftermath ongoing)

2 - Hurricane Harvey: We watched in horror seeing a large area with millions of people get submerged; it made the initial landfall with extreme wind damage seem minor in comparison - likely the costliest storm all time, yet the human toll is dwarfed by Maria (late August to early September)

3 - California wildfires: I placed them all together here - numerous fires affected the state through the fall and continue to, with extensive devastation and significant loss of life right on the heels of the hurricanes (October to December)

4 - Hurricane Irma: Of the three huge hurricanes, this one may not have lived up to its full potential (in Florida), but still produced very widespread damage especially in the Keys, and also devastated the USVI (September 5-12)

5 - Western drought and fires: Almost forgotten after the hurricanes, the Dakotas and Montana went through a major drought throughout the warm season, and there were also severe fires in the northern Rockies in the summer that damaged many homes (April to September)

6 - January tornado outbreak: The tone for an active severe weather year was set with a deadly tornado outbreak in late January across the Southeast (likely Georgia's largest on record) (January 20-23)

7 - "Pi Day" blizzard: After a quite winter up to that point, Mother Nature makes up for lost time in mid-March with a major Northeast blizzard, particularly in the inland areas (March 12-15)

8 - California winter storms: While fires dominated the fall, it was a wet rainy season back in the winter, and parts of northern California faced severe flooding and a crisis over dam breach risks (February 8-23)

9 - March tornado outbreak and wind storm: A powerful early spring storm produced an unusually early tornado outbreak in the Midwest (mercifully didn't kill anyone), followed by a major damaging wind event in the Great Lakes (March 6-8)

10 - Mid-Mississippi Valley flooding:
Heavy rain from multiple storms produced major flooding in AR, MO and IL in late April and early May; there were also some tornadoes with those storms farther south (April 21-May 7)

The lower half of the list was difficult to order and there were some honorable mentions that I could have included (the late February tornadoes, the western heat waves, Hurricane Nate, the hail events in Colorado and the Southeast snow in December were the first ones that came to mind) but those make up my top 10.

Globally, I would say the #1 event of 2017 was also Hurricane Maria, although it may be overtaken by Typhoon Tembin.
1 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5457
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Top 10 Weather Events: 2017

#2 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:36 pm

Cuba was the saving grace for Florida otherwise Irma would’ve easily been a Cat. 5 for the state IMO.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114453
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Top 10 Weather Events: 2017

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:38 pm

Agree on Maria as #1.Still here many people are without a home and half of the island is without power.
4 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27370
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Top 10 Weather Events: 2017

#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:00 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Cuba was the saving grace for Florida otherwise Irma would’ve easily been a Cat. 5 for the state IMO.


I agree. As bad as it was, the difference between a cat 3 and a cat 5 is very significant. Also if it turned earlier, it would have been a 4-5 into SE Florida, not a 3 into SW Florida.
1 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5457
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Top 10 Weather Events: 2017

#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Cuba was the saving grace for Florida otherwise Irma would’ve easily been a Cat. 5 for the state IMO.


I agree. As bad as it was, the difference between a cat 3 and a cat 5 is very significant. Also if it turned earlier, it would have been a 4-5 into SE Florida, not a 3 into SW Florida.

Regardless it was still the 7th most intense tropical cyclone to strike the U.S. and landfall pressure was not too far off from Hurricane Andrew.

Have to be thankful for the Greater Antilles! Unfortunately they took the brunt of things head on (especially the NE Caribbean).
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27370
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Top 10 Weather Events: 2017

#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:24 pm

My initial thought was to limit this to the 48 (or perhaps 50) states, and have Maria as a special footnote. However, after some deliberation, I decided to publish this list and include Maria at #1.
0 likes   

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 309
Age: 26
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: Top 10 Weather Events: 2017

#7 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Cuba was the saving grace for Florida otherwise Irma would’ve easily been a Cat. 5 for the state IMO.


I agree. As bad as it was, the difference between a cat 3 and a cat 5 is very significant. Also if it turned earlier, it would have been a 4-5 into SE Florida, not a 3 into SW Florida.

Had Irma taken a more parabolic track once past the Turks and Caicos Islands, it would have certainly followed your scenario, given a weaker trough off the Eastern Seaboard and a correspondingly shallower upper-level low over the Gulf of Mexico (hence deeper ridging, less pre-landfall shear and dry-air intrusion). Eventually, given enough time, I suspect that these conditions shall align to yield a worst-case scenario for Southeast FL: an Irma- or Maria-type system, similarly large and intense, tracking directly into Miami–Fort Lauderdale, thence to Lake Okeechobee and Tampa–St. Petersburg. There have been so many near misses—Georges (trek over Greater Antilles), Floyd (offshore), Frances (weakening), Katrina (not enough time over water), Ike (southward dip into Cuba), et al.—but a number of exceptions: 1919, Sept 1926, Sept 1928, Sept 1947, Donna, and some smaller but even more intense cyclones (Labor Day [1935], Andrew). The strongest of the large-sized examples was the 1919 hurricane in the lower FL Keys (130 knots / 927 mb, the pressure having been measured onboard a ship anchored in the Dry Tortugas), but the very large 1926 and 1928 storms closely followed, intensity-wise, at 125 knots. Donna was in the middle of the pack, size-wise, but also 125 knots at landfall in the middle Keys. The 1935 storm and Andrew were obviously micro-monsters. The 1947 (Fort Lauderdale) hurricane was comparatively weaker, at 115 knots, but enormous in size. Based on the data, I think that the prospects of a large, Cabo-Verde-type Cat-5 tracking WNW into metropolitan SE FL, Lake Okeechobee, and Tampa Bay are greater than often suggested, though of course slight from year to year. One day I think we'll see a large-sized, 140-to-150-knot cyclone take the aforementioned path into SE FL, with catastrophic results, damage-wise.

As far as the topic is concerned, no doubt Maria is number one, based on the probable death toll alone.
0 likes   
Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Brent, DonWrk, ngturner1 and 36 guests