Texas Spring 2018

[Haris]

Picked up .59" in W Austin today! The rain lover is happy! Nearing .8" for the month. Still have a long ways to go

[weatherdude1108]

I got about 0.25 of an inch in my yard.

[South Texas Storms]

Nice surprise storm in SA today! My parent's house picked up almost 1.5 inches of rain...we're very thankful.

Hoping for lots more next week!

[Haris]

Nice surprise storm in SA today! My parent's house picked up almost 1.5 inches of rain...we're very thankful.

Hoping for lots more next week!

Gfs turned a lot drier . Hopefully a fluke but models backing off a bit . Hope not but it’s been a trend this year

[Cpv17]

New model??

[South Texas Storms]

The plan is for that model to replace the GFS in the next year or two.

Nice surprise storm in SA today! My parent's house picked up almost 1.5 inches of rain...we're very thankful.

Hoping for lots more next week!

Gfs turned a lot drier . Hopefully a fluke but models backing off a bit . Hope not but it’s been a trend this year

0z GFS Ensemble is still pretty wet. Think much of TX has a good chance of seeing some heavy rain next week.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like the southern and central part of the EWX region (southern Austin and SA) got the feast of this event yesterday. While those in the northern and eastern part (north Austin north and eastward) got the famine. To be expected based on what was forecasted, but still kind of bummed. Congrats to those who got a half inch or more!



Looks like the chance comes back starting next Monday. Thank you Pacific tap!

[bubba hotep]

The models are trending away from a stout SW cutoff kicking out to that energy getting sheared out into the base of a large positive tilted GL trough. Models were faster and shallower with the northern stream earlier in the weak. The slower deeper look allows it to muck up our southern stream cutoff. That would probably mean another round of cooler air to start May but it also reduces the chances of a widespread multi round rain event for Texas. Maybe things trend back the other way over the next week.

[Haris]

The models are trending away from a stout SW cutoff kicking out to that energy getting sheared out into the base of a large positive tilted GL trough. Models were faster and shallower with the northern stream earlier in the weak. The slower deeper look allows it to muck up our southern stream cutoff. That would probably mean another round of cooler air to start May but it also reduces the chances of a widespread multi round rain event for Texas. Maybe things trend back the other way over the next week.

That’s just plain cruel! I get excited and then they turn away like that . Hopefully they go back! But it’s been over a month since our last inch rain fall and May is the wettest month for us . But aren’t the conditions favorable for significant rains here in TX ? The SOI and Wwb?

[weatherdude1108]

The models are trending away from a stout SW cutoff kicking out to that energy getting sheared out into the base of a large positive tilted GL trough. Models were faster and shallower with the northern stream earlier in the weak. The slower deeper look allows it to muck up our southern stream cutoff. That would probably mean another round of cooler air to start May but it also reduces the chances of a widespread multi round rain event for Texas. Maybe things trend back the other way over the next week.

That’s just plain cruel! I get excited and then they turn away like that . Hopefully they go back! But it’s been over a month since our last inch rain fall and May is the wettest month for us . But aren’t the conditions favorable for significant rains here in TX ? The SOI and Wwb?

Model flippity flop?

[Haris]

The models are trending away from a stout SW cutoff kicking out to that energy getting sheared out into the base of a large positive tilted GL trough. Models were faster and shallower with the northern stream earlier in the weak. The slower deeper look allows it to muck up our southern stream cutoff. That would probably mean another round of cooler air to start May but it also reduces the chances of a widespread multi round rain event for Texas. Maybe things trend back the other way over the next week.

Now what’s weird. GEFS

[weatherdude1108]

The models are trending away from a stout SW cutoff kicking out to that energy getting sheared out into the base of a large positive tilted GL trough. Models were faster and shallower with the northern stream earlier in the weak. The slower deeper look allows it to muck up our southern stream cutoff. That would probably mean another round of cooler air to start May but it also reduces the chances of a widespread multi round rain event for Texas. Maybe things trend back the other way over the next week.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2gxoj5s.png

Now what’s weird. GEFS

I got this.

[Brent]

Euro has a flooding event for DFW(5 inches+) end of next week Austin near 2 inches

[bubba hotep]

Euro has a flooding event for DFW(5 inches+) end of next week Austin near 2 inches

Euro is a lot less progressive than the past few runs and drops nearly 10" in some of the NE areas.

[Cpv17]

Euro has a flooding event for DFW(5 inches+) end of next week Austin near 2 inches

Euro is a lot less progressive than the past few runs and drops nearly 10" in some of the NE areas.

Another big event for NE TX lol what a surprise.

[weatherdude1108]

Euro has a flooding event for DFW(5 inches+) end of next week Austin near 2 inches

Euro is a lot less progressive than the past few runs and drops nearly 10" in some of the NE areas.

Another big event for NE TX lol what a surprise.

2 inches would be nice. 3-5 inches would be icing.

[weatherdude1108]

Temps and precip probabilities look nice for early May.

[weatherdude1108]

Several people here at work have commented how nice it is out there. One even asked "Why are we inside?"

If I could, I would move my desk out there. It seriously is Chamber O' Commerce out there right now.

[aggiecutter]

Euro has a flooding event for DFW(5 inches+) end of next week Austin near 2 inches

Euro is a lot less progressive than the past few runs and drops nearly 10" in some of the NE areas.

Another big event for NE TX lol what a surprise.

That has been pattern since last summer.

[bubba hotep]

Some of the svr wx nerds out there have been starting to hype this upcoming period. Outside of the larger scale pattern, it seems pointless to discuss shear profiles, CAPE values, etc until much closer to the event but Mike V posted this: