Texas Spring 2018

[Ntxw]

Point blank, next two weeks looks hot. Maybe not 100s for all but 95-100 is a good bet lows in the 70s. CPC still highlights most of Texas for much above normal during this stretch.

[weatherdude1108]

Point blank, next two weeks looks hot. Maybe not 100s for all but 95-100 is a good bet lows in the 70s. CPC still highlights most of Texas for much above normal during this stretch.

We're visiting my sister n' law in Michigan in Mid June for a week. That trip can't get here soon enough!

[Haris]

Point blank, next two weeks looks hot. Maybe not 100s for all but 95-100 is a good bet lows in the 70s. CPC still highlights most of Texas for much above normal during this stretch.

We're visiting my sister n' law in Michigan in Mid June for a week. That trip can't get here soon enough!

I’m going to niagra falls in 2 weeks . Same here , can’t wait to get a brief heat relief . Only going for 3 days though

[weatherdude1108]

Point blank, next two weeks looks hot. Maybe not 100s for all but 95-100 is a good bet lows in the 70s. CPC still highlights most of Texas for much above normal during this stretch.

We're visiting my sister n' law in Michigan in Mid June for a week. That trip can't get here soon enough!

I’m going to niagra falls in 2 weeks . Same here , can’t wait to get a brief heat relief . Only going for 3 days though

Three days of heat relief is better than zero days. I've always wanted to visit Niagra Falls. Awesome! I've seen lots of pics and videos. Maybe you could share some with us when you get back, if you want? Then we can all live vicariously through your photos -- dreaming of water and cooler temperatures.

[NotSparta]

We're visiting my sister n' law in Michigan in Mid June for a week. That trip can't get here soon enough!

I’m going to niagra falls in 2 weeks . Same here , can’t wait to get a brief heat relief . Only going for 3 days though

Three days of heat relief is better than zero days. I've always wanted to visit Niagra Falls. Awesome! I've seen lots of pics and videos. Maybe you could share some with us when you get back, if you want? Then we can all live vicariously through your photos -- dreaming of water and cooler temperatures.

Niagara Falls has more humid weather, if Haris intercepts a heat wave it may be even worse

hope not though cause it can get quite uncomfortable at that point

[weatherdude1108]

No one wants tornadoes or flooding, but I'm not sure that "Hot and dry" is a welcome change.lol

I think for our purposes, we want the GFS solution to verify, get the tropical system as far east as possible, since it won't do us any good anyway, just make the heat and dry worse. More good news!

Hot and dry is a welcome change
to the record flooding or isolated tornadoes of Memorial Day
weekends past

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
A weak coastal trough off of the upper Texas Coast helped initiate
shower and thunderstorm activity across areas around Houston this
morning. That activity now extends from Victoria to Smithville to
Bryan-College Station and is working its way north and west. The
isolated showers and storms will impact areas along and east of the
I-35 corridor through the afternoon before weakening this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Tonight should be partly cloudy
with more patchy fog expected along the Coastal Plains around
sunrise. Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, just a few
degrees above seasonal normals. While the coastal trough dissipates
tomorrow, there is plenty of moisture in place for more diurnally
driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms (mainly east of a La
Grange to Gonzales to Karnes City line). Afternoon highs will be in
the low 90s for one more day across the I-35 corridor, but highs
begin to warm across the Rio Grande Plains topping out in the mid to
upper 90s tomorrow. Tomorrow`s forecast high of 96 tomorrow in Del
Rio is 5 degrees above normal for late May.


&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
For Friday and beyond the forecast dries out across South Central
Texas. The upper level ridge steadily builds in over Central Texas
for the Memorial Day weekend as a low pressure across the eastern
Gulf deepens. High pressure over us means decreasing moisture levels
with both subsidence and a mid-level warm layer keeping a lid on any
potential for seabreeze showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures, as
a result, will be on the rise with 100 degree highs forecast for the
Rio Grande on Saturday, spreading towards San Antonio and the I-35
corridor for Sunday and Memorial Day. Hot and dry is a welcome change
to the record flooding or isolated tornadoes of Memorial Day
weekends past, but it means that those out celebrating on the rivers
and having backyard parties should pay attention to the heat,
drinking plenty of water, etc. After heat index values will reach to
between 101 to 104 each afternoon of the Memorial Day weekend. The
operational ECMWF and GFS disagree on what to do with the low across
the eastern Gulf. While the GFS takes the system into Florida the
ECMWF moves it north towards the Mississippi delta. Neither solution
brings any relief to us in Central Texas, possibly making it worse.
If the tropical/subtropical low does develop (NHC now has the 5-day
chance of formation up to 60%) and moves into the Central Gulf Coast
subsidence and dry air on the western side of the storm could
actually increase the amount of heating and drying across South
Central Texas.

[weatherdude1108]

Eyeballing those thundershowers/showers just to our east trying to inch their way west, hoping for any relief. I'm sure most if not all will dissipate/get cutoff by their own outflows anyway. But one can still dream.

[Brent]

I could careless about hot and dry... we get enough of that the rest of the year.

Though I am glad there hasn't been a lot of tornadoes and hailstorms but still... there could be something...

[Ntxw]

Niagara Falls has more humid weather, if Haris intercepts a heat wave it may be even worse

hope not though cause it can get quite uncomfortable at that point

Brent can attest to this since he lived many summers in Alabama, Texas heat waves are brutal. Even a humid climate is nothing compared..at least there you can get rain when it gets too warm. In Texas it can be hot, and humid and no rain for weeks on end. It is truly hell and I will take the humid climates all day.

[Brent]

Niagara Falls has more humid weather, if Haris intercepts a heat wave it may be even worse

hope not though cause it can get quite uncomfortable at that point

Brent can attest to this since he lived many summers in Alabama, Texas heat waves are brutal. Even a humid climate is nothing compared..at least there you can get rain when it gets too warm. In Texas it can be hot, and humid and no rain for weeks on end. It is truly hell and I will take the humid climates all day.

indeed... At least in Alabama we had usually weekly or sometimes even daily rain to look forward to

This just sucks

[aggiecutter]

Another .50" of rain late this afternoon.

[Haris]

We're visiting my sister n' law in Michigan in Mid June for a week. That trip can't get here soon enough!

I’m going to niagra falls in 2 weeks . Same here , can’t wait to get a brief heat relief . Only going for 3 days though

Three days of heat relief is better than zero days. I've always wanted to visit Niagra Falls. Awesome! I've seen lots of pics and videos. Maybe you could share some with us when you get back, if you want? Then we can all live vicariously through your photos -- dreaming of water and cooler temperatures.

Lol sure! Yeah hopefully I get tolerable weather there. I heard it always "rains" there in the sense , the water from when the falls hit the ground splashes back up a little . I dont know how to exactly describe it hahaa

[Brent]

I’m going to niagra falls in 2 weeks . Same here , can’t wait to get a brief heat relief . Only going for 3 days though

Three days of heat relief is better than zero days. I've always wanted to visit Niagra Falls. Awesome! I've seen lots of pics and videos. Maybe you could share some with us when you get back, if you want? Then we can all live vicariously through your photos -- dreaming of water and cooler temperatures.

Lol sure! Yeah hopefully I get tolerable weather there. I heard it always "rains" there in the sense , the water from when the falls hit the ground splashes back up a little . I dont know how to exactly describe it hahaa

hopefully there's no heat wave... last June I went to NYC and it hit 100 before Dallas did.

The snow when I went in February was much better.

[Haris]

Three days of heat relief is better than zero days. I've always wanted to visit Niagra Falls. Awesome! I've seen lots of pics and videos. Maybe you could share some with us when you get back, if you want? Then we can all live vicariously through your photos -- dreaming of water and cooler temperatures.

Lol sure! Yeah hopefully I get tolerable weather there. I heard it always "rains" there in the sense , the water from when the falls hit the ground splashes back up a little . I dont know how to exactly describe it hahaa

hopefully there's no heat wave... last June I went to NYC and it hit 100 before Dallas did.

The snow when I went in February was much better.

I still love how we both got a snowstorm in the middle of the most ANTI snow weather pattern there. It was in the 70s the following week. 50 the day right after the snow! JUST plain ole luck!

[Ntxw]

Beginning tomorrow the NWS is forecasting 95F and up. 97ish for a good stretch all of next week. Could inch out 100 in there, especially west of I-35. May is guaranteed a top 10 warmest.

While being this hot in May is not unseen, this is more typical of mid and late June.

[Ntxw]

To note if we don't hit 100 next week, both GFS and Euro sends a stronger 500mb ridge (590dm+) over the southern plains with warmer 850s, so might be as hot if not hotter week 2 to begin June.

[weatherdude1108]

What is the saying? Misery loves company? I'm always peering into the future for relief. I did that quite a bit in 2011. I was losing hope back then, but the rains eventually came back in October 2011. That is five months away. I'm hoping we don't have to wait that long for good, soaking rains. But climatology is against the rain-misers after mid-June, or this weekend in this case. Hmmm.


The Memorial Day Weekend will by hot and dry across South Central Texas under the influence of a ridge of high pressure. Highs will creep up into the upper 90s to triple digits over the weekend across many locations. Rain chances will be well east of Texas, across the Deep South and Florida with a tropical disturbance moving into that region.



The Memorial Day Weekend will by hot and dry across South Central Texas under the influence of a ridge of high pressure. Highs will creep up into the upper 90s to triple digits over the weekend across many locations.





[b][i]000
FXUS64 KEWX 240833
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
333 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
The Subtropical Ridge continues to build over western Texas today
and then expands a little to the east on Friday. Similar to the last
few days, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected
east of I-35 today where deeper moisture resides with heating and
lifting from the seabreeze. With the expansion of the Ridge, the
showers and thunderstorms will stay east of Highway 77 on Friday.
Cannot rule out isolated showers and thunderstorms coming off the
Serranias del Burro each evening. A couple of hi-res models show
isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Edwards Plateau Friday
afternoon. For now, will go with 10 POPs and no mention for that area
as a capping inversion should hold. Slightly above normal
temperatures continue with a warming trend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The Subtropical Ridge shifts to the east across Texas with the axis
generally from northern Mexico to over our area during the Memorial
Day weekend into early next week, then strengthens (500 MB heights
around 5930M) middle to late next week. Moisture levels decrease
somewhat along with increasing subsidence from the Subtropical Ridge
and a capping inversion from warming mid level temperatures. As a
result, rain is not expected. Daytime mixing with warming mid level
temperatures (850 MB warming to 23C east to 29C west) and drying
soils enable a significant warmup resulting in high temperatures
around 10 degrees above normal. By the weekend, highs around 100 to
103 are expected along the Rio Grande, then spreading to the I-37
corridor from San Antonio south by Memorial Day. These highs will
continue all of next week with ensemble guidance indicating a
potential for even hotter temperatures. Good mixing with drier air
aloft will keep maximum afternoon heat index values below 105. Being
that the daytime temperatures will be the hottest so far this year,
those participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend
should drink plenty of water and take breaks in a shaded or air
condition area. Should the system in the Gulf of Mexico develop
into a tropical or subtropical low (NHC has increased chances to 70
percent as of last evening), any impact on South Central Texas would
be to enhance the heating and drying.

[bubba hotep]

Ugh... What a fail this May has been for DFW and models look ugly to start June.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Beginning tomorrow the NWS is forecasting 95F and up. 97ish for a good stretch all of next week. Could inch out 100 in there, especially west of I-35. May is guaranteed a top 10 warmest.

While being this hot in May is not unseen, this is more typical of mid and late June.

I got a weather notification yesterday from one of locals Mets that stated a July pattern would be setting up and any relief looks slight at best. the dreaded time of the year looks to be here.

[weatherdude1108]

Might as well shut down this thread, and put the Summer thread on auto-pilot.