Texas Spring 2018

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1808
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#821 Postby Haris » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:05 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:-SOI and WWB near the dateline will set up a significant precip event. Money question is where?


Also, the base state is starting to shift to a more favorable orientation. Then add in the MJO possibly ampping back up in P7/8 and everything appears to becoming together for widespread Texas rains.


Severe weather consequence ? Outbreak type situation ? Just curious or more flooding potential ? Too early I guess
0 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#822 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:18 pm

Haris wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:-SOI and WWB near the dateline will set up a significant precip event. Money question is where?


Also, the base state is starting to shift to a more favorable orientation. Then add in the MJO possibly ampping back up in P7/8 and everything appears to becoming together for widespread Texas rains.


Severe weather consequence ? Outbreak type situation ? Just curious or more flooding potential ? Too early I guess


I would say both severe weather and flooding rains could be a possibility. It’s hard for heavy rains not to come with severe weather in late April and early May.
1 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#823 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:32 pm

This looks good, but I’ve seen this before just recently and nothing much came out of it.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1808
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#824 Postby Haris » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:45 pm

Cpv17 wrote:This looks good, but I’ve seen this before just recently and nothing much came out of it.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... cp.new.gif


Image
3 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4172
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#825 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:02 pm

:uarrow:
I read the little write-up by the CPC for the May 2nd to May 8th time frame. They mentioned the heavy rain, then an enhanced severe weather threat. Of course it is late April/Early May, the heart of severe weather season, which I am guessing is why they put that caveat. However, it was not included in the graphic by CPC, because the SPCs 4-8 day outlook didn't have a graphic highlighting a risk area. I'll take heavy rain over severe. Although heavy rain by itself can be severe.

For Wednesday May 02 - Tuesday May 08: The high wind hazard predicted for the central and southern High Plains region on day 7 (May 1) continues into day 8 (May 2).

As noted in the 3-7 day section, increasingly moist return flow from surface high pressure moving off the Southeast coast is expected to prime the atmosphere across the Central and east-central CONUS for widespread rain and thunderstorm activity from May 2-4. A slight risk of heavy rain is predicted over the Lower Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, May 2-4. A significant subset of this region is covered by a moderate risk of heavy rain for the same period. The broad 3-day event is due primarily to timing differences and inherent uncertainties between the ECMWF and GFS ensemble means. Non-hazardous rainfall is expected to extend farther north into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes region. The risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorm activity is likely to be enhanced, especially over the Lower Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, as a result of the expected confluence of various mid-level and surface weather features (such as an approaching 500-hPa trough, a dryline and associated elevated mixed layer, several baroclinic zones, increased wind shear, and increased instability).
2 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#826 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:07 pm

The recent forecasts (early month) was not backed by the Pacific, thus bust level was possible. That is usually the case when you rely on just the gulf and Atlantic in TX. This upcoming event should be backed by the big Ocean so bust is less a factor region wise. The rise in AAM (mountain torque) is noteworthy and we will be in for a period, very nino-esque type pattern.
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5416
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#827 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:58 pm

The WRF-ARW2, RGEM and Texas Tech WRF are much more aggressive with precipitation totals across DFW than the NAMs & GFS.
0 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#828 Postby wxman57 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:23 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I decided to save up all of this spring's heat for next Fall/Winter.

I think we need a Temperature Appropriation Committee headed by Portastorm, Ntwx, and Brent to fight this injustice. At least a compromise giving you a blazing month of scorching heat, from July 15 to August 15 only to leave Fall/Winter alone. :D


You guys made a deal with the devil last fall, and the bill is coming due next fall/winter. :firedevil:
2 likes   

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3505
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#829 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I decided to save up all of this spring's heat for next Fall/Winter.

I think we need a Temperature Appropriation Committee headed by Portastorm, Ntwx, and Brent to fight this injustice. At least a compromise giving you a blazing month of scorching heat, from July 15 to August 15 only to leave Fall/Winter alone. :D


You guys made a deal with the devil last fall, and the bill is coming due next fall/winter. :firedevil:


Hey, Could you save just a touch of that heat for Spring in the OV next year. I don't want to spend another large part of Apil with sub 50 temps and multiple days with snow falling again.
1 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3505
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#830 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:44 pm

Also big time flood threat on the 18z GFS. If type 2 soundings do occur that would likely be the biggest risk next week.
1 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1808
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#831 Postby Haris » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:47 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Also big time flood threat on the 18z GFS. If type 2 soundings do occur that would likely be the biggest risk next week.



THE 18Z GFS is crazy!!! It has the LOW STOP in Mexico and sends waves of rain FOR DAYS AND DAYS!!! Dropping 3-7" of rain across the entire state! AMAZING!
Last edited by Haris on Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3505
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#832 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:48 pm

Haris wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Also big time flood threat on the 18z GFS. If type 2 soundings do occur that would likely be the biggest risk next week.



THE 18Z GFS IS ON DRUGS LOL!!! It has the LOW STOP in Mexico and sends waves of rain FOR DAYS AND DAYS!!! Dropping 3-7" of rain across the entire state! AMAZING! LOL


Not amazing when you're trying to fly in on Thursday :(
0 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5416
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#833 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I decided to save up all of this spring's heat for next Fall/Winter.

I think we need a Temperature Appropriation Committee headed by Portastorm, Ntwx, and Brent to fight this injustice. At least a compromise giving you a blazing month of scorching heat, from July 15 to August 15 only to leave Fall/Winter alone. :D


You guys made a deal with the devil last fall, and the bill is coming due next fall/winter. :firedevil:


Is it too early to start a winter thread so we can lock in these predictions?

I'm going with a block buster winter based on emerging Nino, declining solar, continued step down from super nino temp spike, etc.
3 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#834 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:29 pm

I am on a similar bandwagon. I like the outside signals (solar, enso, mid latitudes) to be working in a general direction of 2009
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1808
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#835 Postby Haris » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:41 pm

Ntxw wrote:I am on a similar bandwagon. I like the outside signals (solar, enso, mid latitudes) to be working in a general direction of 2009


Im forecasting another snowy Austin winter. LOCKING IT IN ! :)
5 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#836 Postby Brent » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:43 pm

Haris wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I am on a similar bandwagon. I like the outside signals (solar, enso, mid latitudes) to be working in a general direction of 2009


Im forecasting another snowy Austin winter. LOCKING IT IN ! :)


As long as DFW breaks its streak I'm fine with that :P
2 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1808
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#837 Postby Haris » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:44 pm

0z nam 3k and ttu wrf show fairly numerous showers and storms over Austin tom evening. Worth nothing.
2 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#838 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 12:25 am

CMC is onboard although I’d like to see some more rain in the panhandle and west TX where they need it.

Image
3 likes   

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1736
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#839 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:23 am

It sure is discouraging when the local Mets go on and on about the beneficial rainfall for last night and today and so far not a drop and spotty drizzle today so far. Also, where has our severe weather been?
0 likes   
#neversummer

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#840 Postby Ntxw » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:29 am

SOI today is -15. For 7 days in a row now has been negative, the longest streak since Feb. 850mb U-winds in the equatorial Pacific is yielding westerlies to become a sig WWB. Regardless of what day to day model runs show, confidence in a significant flooding type rain event is increasing in the weeks ahead.

It is not happening in a vaccuum. Models have been toying with an EPAC system. Even if it does not materialize it does show the moistening up to our tropical linkage source region.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K



Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: South Texas Storms and 32 guests