Texas Spring 2018

[South Texas Storms]

As of now it seems like more of a heavy rain threat in north TX and a severe threat in central TX. I'm guessing based on today's data, SPC would have the Marginal Risk area in DFW with the Slight Risk area down across SA, Austin, CS, and Houston.

I have a question for you. The mets here in Houston are calling for 1-3” of rain across the area, but I don’t understand where they’re getting that from. The GFS is barely calling for anything across the area. I guess the Euro is different? I don’t have access to it.

Yeah the Euro and UKMET are both showing heavier totals, generally in the 1-2 inch range. Those solutions seem more reasonable based on the 500 mb pattern right now.

[bubba hotep]

DFW only made it to 87 today. Was that the last best chance to get to 90 before May? The ensembles show low 80s as being the warmest DFW gets over the next two weeks.

[Brent]

DFW only made it to 87 today. Was that the last best chance to get to 90 before May? The ensembles show low 80s as being the warmest DFW gets over the next two weeks.

I'm just amazed the cool snaps keep coming.... could be 4 days DFW barely gets to 70 starting Friday(the nights won't be nearly as cold as recent fronts but still)... I really hope we can keep a cooler pattern going into summer

[Cpv17]

Looks like the threat for severe weather this Friday and Saturday is decreasing. Looking like there won’t be enough sun out to destabilize the atmosphere. Not surprised by this. Still a few days out though.

[weatherdude1108]

SPC has almost the entire EWX forecast area in the 15% slight risk for Saturday, but they are questioning the amount of destabilization possibility based on predicted cloud cover and existing precip. I am perfectly fine with good old-fashioned rain making thunderstorms.

We need the moisture!




ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180751
SPC AC 180751

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper low that ejects across the southwestern US Thursday/Friday
will begin to slow and deamplify as it approaches the lower MS
Valley this weekend. Models have trended toward a slower solution
over the last few days along with weaker air-mass modification
across TX. Extensive clouds/precip due to strong low-level warm
advection should limit boundary-layer heating/buoyancy for potential
robust convection across much of the region. Even so, have opted to
maintain 15% severe probs across portions of TX for day4 as strong
deep-layer flow will overspread a modifying warm sector that should
be adequately buoyant for deep convection. However, if models
continue to trend toward weaker instability regime then severe probs
may be lowered in later outlooks.

Some severe threat could spread along the Gulf Coast toward FL by
early next week but predictability is necessarily low due to
deamplifying upper trough and likely weakly buoyant air mass across
this region.

[Haris]

The European and eps showed 2-4” of rain consistently for the last few days and now have backed off substantiallly. Eps show .5” now . Gfs shows barely anything measurable now . Forget svere weather , is rain even gonna happen ? It’s verh sad but still some days out and it can change . I just hate this dry year and spring and seeing the SE getting MORE RAINN againnn from this system . It gets me soo fumed. I just hate my emotional attachment to weather . Had to get my rant out LOL sorry . .

[rolldamntoad]

Hoping the severe threat around Austin stays at a minimum. I am heading down there Saturday morning from Dallas for a bachelor party, coming back Sunday. Rain, I can deal with, but if there's any chance of severe storms, my inner Dwight Schrute wannabe-safety-officer mode will take over.

[weatherdude1108]

This is encouraging!

[Haris]

This is encouraging!

Nah, I’m not at all trusting it . Especially how bad I got burned by the models for this weekend . LOL, the euro went from 3-4” down to .2” .

[Cpv17]

This is encouraging!

It’s nice to see, sure, but that’s a long ways out. Have to get it inside 3 days for me to be really excited about it. It’ll probably be gone in the 18z run.

[South Texas Storms]

The European and eps showed 2-4” of rain consistently for the last few days and now have backed off substantiallly. Eps show .5” now . Gfs shows barely anything measurable now . Forget svere weather , is rain even gonna happen ? It’s verh sad but still some days out and it can change . I just hate this dry year and spring and seeing the SE getting MORE RAINN againnn from this system . It gets me soo fumed. I just hate my emotional attachment to weather . Had to get my rant out LOL sorry . .

Yeah unfortunately the models have trended drier over the past few days for this weekend. Quite disappointing..

[weatherdude1108]

This is encouraging!

Nah, I’m not at all trusting it . Especially how bad I got burned by the models for this weekend . LOL, the euro went from 3-4” down to .2” .

Yeah, seems like the models like to hype a wet period, then "evaporate" it off.

[weatherdude1108]

This is encouraging!

It’s nice to see, sure, but that’s a long ways out. Have to get it inside 3 days for me to be really excited about it. It’ll probably be gone in the 18z run.

Yeah, I should know better than to trust the models that far out. Kind of like this past Winter when the models showed a crippling ice/snow storm in Texas in 384 hours, for how many times?

[weatherdude1108]

Just being wishful, keeping the faith.

[weatherdude1108]

The European and eps showed 2-4” of rain consistently for the last few days and now have backed off substantiallly. Eps show .5” now . Gfs shows barely anything measurable now . Forget svere weather , is rain even gonna happen ? It’s verh sad but still some days out and it can change . I just hate this dry year and spring and seeing the SE getting MORE RAINN againnn from this system . It gets me soo fumed. I just hate my emotional attachment to weather . Had to get my rant out LOL sorry . .

Yeah unfortunately the models have trended drier over the past few days for this weekend. Quite disappointing..

Where is the "Dislike This" button?

Hmmmm.

[South Texas Storms]

Latest long range models and ensembles continue to advertise a wet pattern developing by the end of this month and into May. Let's hope they verify. We need rain!

[weatherdude1108]

This little front that moved through this afternoon is only exacerbating the dryness. Let's hope the long-range models of more rain verify. Otherwise it will be a long, hot Summer (minus any tropical influences of course).

969
FXUS64 KEWX 181938
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
238 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed nearly zonal flow across the
southern part of the country with a trough moving onto the northwest
coast. At the surface, a cold front was stretched across our CWA from
Austin to Kerrville to Del Rio. Winds behind the front were from the
northeast bringing drier air. The front will have moved through the
area by the start of this period. There will be a slight chance for
showers across the southeastern part of our CWA this evening before
the dry air blankets the region. Tonight and Thursday will be dry as
a weak upper level ridge builds over the area. Thursday night an
upper level shortwave trough will move in from Mexico bringing a
chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
An upper level low will move across the Rockies Friday and into the
plains Saturday with a trough extending over Texas. This will bring a
surface frontal system through South Central Texas Saturday. Models
have trended drier across our CWA for Friday night and Saturday as
this system moves across. Better chances for thunderstorms look to be
Saturday with the frontal passage. Models are also trending toward
weaker storms, but some strong to severe storms are still possible.
Northerly winds will bring drier air behind the front Sunday and
Monday. Tuesday the low level flow will turn back to the southeast
bringing warmer, moister air.

[bubba hotep]

I would be stoked about the 2nd system on the GFS if we were still in the winter thread. Northern stream system kicks off a cold front as a cutoff plows into Texaa. That would be a big time winter storm in February.

For this weekend, it looks like the models are shifting the majority of the rain north of I20, which is disappointing for our southern friends. The svr wx setup isn't nearly as interesting as the last two Friday systems.

[opticsguy]

Question. The entire Midwest is under a snowpack that will last for weeks. This will result in cooler temperatures over the region as the areas around it warm up. Wouldn't this put a persistent UL low over the Great Lakes and keep us in a NW flow aloft during that time? And with NW flow we're cut off from persistent rains, but instead count on wait for MCSs to arrive overnight for our rain?

[WacoWx]

Saturday foresast discussion snippet:

A cold front will sweep across the region Saturday evening and
night, ending the rain from west to east. The NAM is significantly
faster than the other operational models, with the front pushing
through most of the region on Saturday afternoon, and this
solution may become reality as the ongoing rain cools the
continental air already in place, allowing for the cooler air to
seep south during the day. If this happens, any severe weather
concerns across Central Texas would be limited even further.

I have outdoor plans Saturday afternoon/evening in Dallas. How good has the NAM been performing on these events lately?