Texas Spring 2018

[weatherdude1108]

The Day 4-8 Convective Outlook issued by the SPC mentions first that heavy rain may become a concern with isolated severe storms in Texas and OK. Wonder if the CPC will be issuing anything later about heavy rain as it gets closer.


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210739
SPC AC 210739

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models have come into much better agreement for the D4-D8 period,
depicting an upper trough amplifying across the West and slowly
progressing across the southern Plains.

On Sunday/D5, a warm front will lift north across OK and into KS as
low pressure forms over the central High Plains. Indications are
that a leading shortwave trough will move across TX and OK
relatively early in the day, which may induce midday storm formation
in a warm advection regime from central OK into southwest MO. Thus,
while a dryline will exist across southwest KS into western OK,
additional diurnal development is uncertain. Conditionally, a few
severe storms cannot be ruled out given potentially 1000-1500 J/kg
MUCAPE beneath 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow.

For Monday/D6, the upper flow across the Plains will become a bit
more meridional as the trough digs southward into northern Mexico. A
strengthening speed max aloft will emerge across the southern high
Plains late on Monday, with winds aloft roughly parallel to the
dryline which itself will be quasi-stationary. Areas of storms are
likely across much of west-central TX and OK, and a few could be
strong or severe with wind or hail. Instability looks to be marginal
for severe weather, but will also depend on how much early day
convection there is. Thus, will maintain a predictability too low
for Monday.

The same pattern will persist into Tuesday/D7, shifting east OK and
TX. By this time, heavy rain may become a concern, along with
isolated severe storms.

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

[Haris]

The 12z gfs is scary as in no rainfall in Austin! And we need rain! Are any meteorologists on here agreeing w/ that solution or is this pattern favorable for significant rainfall in ATX too? The cmc brings 2-3” state wide but it’s the cmc

[Brent]

The 12z gfs is scary as in no rainfall in Austin! And we need rain! Are any meteorologists on here agreeing w/ that solution or is this pattern favorable for significant rainfall in ATX too? The cmc brings 2-3” state wide but it’s the cmc

Honestly I wouldn't get too caught up in the specifics of the models right now even up here I've been cautious despite some of the extreme solutions

Most of this is still 5-7 days out so I'm sure things will change

[Haris]

The 12z gfs is scary as in no rainfall in Austin! And we need rain! Are any meteorologists on here agreeing w/ that solution or is this pattern favorable for significant rainfall in ATX too? The cmc brings 2-3” state wide but it’s the cmc

Honestly I wouldn't get too caught up in the specifics of the models right now even up here I've been cautious despite some of the extreme solutions

Most of this is still 5-7 days out so I'm sure things will change

Very true! And just look at the latest 12z euro! Precip wayyy further S

[Brent]

The 12z gfs is scary as in no rainfall in Austin! And we need rain! Are any meteorologists on here agreeing w/ that solution or is this pattern favorable for significant rainfall in ATX too? The cmc brings 2-3” state wide but it’s the cmc

Honestly I wouldn't get too caught up in the specifics of the models right now even up here I've been cautious despite some of the extreme solutions

Most of this is still 5-7 days out so I'm sure things will change

Very true! And just look at the latest 12z euro! Precip wayyy further S

yup heavy rain to the coast on the Euro

The broader message is likely widespread heavy rain chances over several days, the specifics come later...

[Ralph's Weather]

I had some frost this morning with a low around 35. 8 years ago we had the finale of the amazing 09/10 winter with widespread 2" and some spots over 6".

[Yukon Cornelius]

I had some frost this morning with a low around 35. 8 years ago we had the finale of the amazing 09/10 winter with widespread 2" and some spots over 6".

Yall beat us this morning. Got to 38 here with patchy, light frost. The old guy I help work his land still says to not plant a garden yet...

[Cpv17]

Woohoo!! The 18z GFS has me getting a whopping .50” of an inch over the next couple weeks.

[Haris]

Woohoo!! The 18z GFS has me getting a whopping .50” of an inch over the next couple weeks.

expect model volatility to continue. Overall, I expect centralm north and E texas getting 2-4"

[Ntxw]

And so it begins. Suspect flood watches may come sometime later

[South Texas Storms]

Looking forward to the upcoming wet weather pattern! Hope it reaches areas that have missed out on the heaviest rains so far this year.

[Ntxw]

From the CPC

[Ntxw]

Besides the rain, the WPAC may yield a recurving system to help dump some cooler air around Easter. These things like to happen when El Nino tries to come on

[Cerlin]

Besides the rain, the WPAC may yield a recurving system to help dump some cooler air around Easter. These things like to happen when El Nino tries to come on

How cool would it be? Low 50s as a high or some freezing temperatures?

[bubba hotep]

Besides the rain, the WPAC may yield a recurving system to help dump some cooler air around Easter. These things like to happen when El Nino tries to come on

The ensembles are showing some very cold air up in Canada and signs of a return to -NAO. Could be a perfect storm with the right recurve and transition.

[Haris]

12z gfs is back to being horrible and not giving anything much for the S half of the state . Hopefully it’s a fluke

[Yukon Cornelius]

Besides the rain, the WPAC may yield a recurving system to help dump some cooler air around Easter. These things like to happen when El Nino tries to come on

The ensembles are showing some very cold air up in Canada and signs of a return to -NAO. Could be a perfect storm with the right recurve and transition.

Don’t plant those gardens yet!

[bubba hotep]

12z gfs is back to being horrible and not giving anything much for the S half of the state . Hopefully it’s a fluke

Like Brent said above, "hold the course" and trust the ensembles. They have been pretty steady around 2" for the Austin area.

[Brent]

12z Euro looks much better for Austin

[bubba hotep]

Besides the rain, the WPAC may yield a recurving system to help dump some cooler air around Easter. These things like to happen when El Nino tries to come on

The ensembles are showing some very cold air up in Canada and signs of a return to -NAO. Could be a perfect storm with the right recurve and transition.

Don’t plant those gardens yet!

The 12z GEFS has multiple members showing winter weather for various parts of Texas in the longer range.