Texas Spring 2018

[Cpv17]

The Euro looks interesting especially in SE TX from the tropics... very slow moving storm

GFS on the flip side has 4 days 100+ in DFW starting Friday through the entire holiday weekend

Yeah the 12z Euro earlier looked interesting and now the 0z looks even more interesting.

[Brent]

The Euro looks interesting especially in SE TX from the tropics... very slow moving storm

GFS on the flip side has 4 days 100+ in DFW starting Friday through the entire holiday weekend

Yeah the 12z Euro earlier looked interesting and now the 0z looks even more interesting.

Rain gets well inland this run.. even to the 35 corridor

[Cpv17]

The Euro looks interesting especially in SE TX from the tropics... very slow moving storm

GFS on the flip side has 4 days 100+ in DFW starting Friday through the entire holiday weekend

Yeah the 12z Euro earlier looked interesting and now the 0z looks even more interesting.

Rain gets well inland this run.. even to the 35 corridor

Kinda weird how it has so much rain on the western side of the circulation, but I’ll sure the heck take it lol

[Brent]

Yeah the 12z Euro earlier looked interesting and now the 0z looks even more interesting.

Rain gets well inland this run.. even to the 35 corridor

Kinda weird how it has so much rain on the western side of the circulation, but I’ll sure the heck take it lol

Not sure I buy it yet(climo probably supports more east) but I would definitely prefer the Euro to the GFS

GFS 100's in DFW, Euro low/mid 80s

[Cpv17]

Rain gets well inland this run.. even to the 35 corridor

Kinda weird how it has so much rain on the western side of the circulation, but I’ll sure the heck take it lol

Not sure I buy it yet(climo probably supports more east) but I would definitely prefer the Euro to the GFS

GFS 100's in DFW, Euro low/mid 80s

Yes, definitely the Euro over the GFS the 100’s can come in July and August, not late May.

[weatherdude1108]

Yesterday's twister was an EF1 according to the NWS. Did not expect that.

http://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-blo ... 1189961004

http://www.kxan.com/news/local/williams ... 1189416891

[CaptinCrunch]

The rain Sunday morning was very much needed, I got .65 in the gauge and it was a soaking rain, not heavy or fast. As for this coming holiday weekend I don't see 100+ for DFW, mid 90's at best.

[Brent]

Euro went east with the tropics and is much hotter for next weekend DFW is close to 100 several days starting Memorial Day

[Haris]

Shouldn’t complain too much but I’m not too satisfied. It’s only rained 2 days in month (though decent ) and I’m not liking the dry end . And then summer

But I’m looking forward to an El Niño winter

[weatherdude1108]

We should be getting over an inch per week on average in May, but very thankful for the 1.5 inches I got yesterday. Just wish I didn't have to go another month or so to see more.

It's like we are starting over every time it rains. 4 inches rain, 4 weeks dry; 3 inches rain, 5 weeks dry; flash flooding, 3 months drought;, etc.

It doesn't feel like it was when I was little. Granted I didn't pay that much attention to the weather when I was little, but I was aware of how it felt and when it rained. It seemed like the dry periods/droughts were fewer and farther between, with more wetness and cooler temps. Now the wet periods are fewer and farther between the dry spells/droughts, and the temps are hotter.

Don't want to go into an urban development/background state/Sunspot cycles thing here. Just some observations of living here since the 70s.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 212001
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
301 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Early afternoon surface observations show a remnant cold front was
located roughly along a GTU-SAT-DRT line. Elsewhere, some developing
convection is noted across the coastal plains into the Highway 77
corridor. The remnant boundary along with an axis of increased
moisture and daytime heating is aiding in the development of this
convection.

The above mentioned boundary will weaken and become ill-defined
through the evening hours as we expect a return of south to
southeasterly winds across all areas. The hi-res models generally
favor the coastal plains for convection this evening and we have gone
with the higher rain chances across this region. Most activity across
the coastal plains is expected to decrease by late evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Farther west along the Rio Grande, we will
hold on to a low chance for showers and storms through tonight to
account for any activity that develops over the higher terrain of
Mexico, then moves eastward toward the Rio Grande plains. No
significant change in the large scale pattern is expected on Tuesday
and we will mention low chances for rainfall along the Rio Grande and
coastal plains. Temperatures should manage to warm slightly on
Tuesday, with most areas in the 90s except mid to upper 80s in the
Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The forecast for the remainder of the forecast period will largely
be dominated by a strengthening subtropical ridge axis to our west.
We will certainly keep an eye on what develops in the Gulf of Mexico,
but for now any activity is currently not anticipated to have an
impact on our forecast. Most areas are expected to remain warm and
dry as the ridge strengthens. The exception could be over the coastal
plains, where slightly higher moisture levels will be found. Also,
we can`t completely rule out an isolated storm or two across western
Val Verde county. For either of the above locations, rain chances
will remain very low. Above normal temperatures are expected into
early next week, with widespread highs in the 90s and lows in the
70s.

[Brent]

Shouldn’t complain too much but I’m not too satisfied. It’s only rained 2 days in month (though decent ) and I’m not liking the dry end . And then summer

But I’m looking forward to an El Niño winter

I really hope this winter really delivers... Still bitter about the last one here

[Cpv17]

I missed out on the heavier rains, but we’ve had a couple of rounds of light to moderate rains since last night. .95” so far

[Brent]

I wish I hadn't looked at the GFS meteogram now Let's just move to the summer thread already

[weatherdude1108]

I say we skip the Summer thread and go straight to the Fall thread.

[South Texas Storms]

Ugh, the weather forecast for next week is awful. Hot and dry with 100s looking likely. Way too early for that crap.

[Brent]

Ugh, the weather forecast for next week is awful. Hot and dry with 100s looking likely. Way too early for that crap.

the end of the Euro had 109 in DFW... the good news is, the LR heat has so far failed to verify. Let's hope that continues.

The GFS peaks at 104 next Tuesday with 6 days near or 100+ starting Saturday

[Haris]

Ugh, the weather forecast for next week is awful. Hot and dry with 100s looking likely. Way too early for that crap.

I wish I could have Florida weather .they saw 5” last week and another 5 “ this week . . Our weather sucks

[weatherdude1108]

Ugh, the weather forecast for next week is awful. Hot and dry with 100s looking likely. Way too early for that crap.

I wish I could have Florida weather .they saw 5” last week and another 5 “ this week . . Our weather sucks

A ray of hope from the EWX aviation discussion. These sea breeze related showers/thundershowers are always iffy this far inland though. More times than not, we get the rainless outflow "tropical breeze" leftovers after they dissipate east/southeast of town.

It is fun when they manage to come through. Can create heavy downpours if you're in the right place at the right time.

610
FXUS64 KEWX 221749
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1249 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PERIOD...
Isolated TSRA has been observed on radar west of the I-35 corridor at
TAF issuance and expect development to continue through the afternoon
hours. Similar to yesterday, the question will be if this activity
can migrate far enough west to impact the I-35 terminals. Storm
motion is currently north-northwest so best opportunity will be at
KAUS unless more development occurs south of San Antonio. Thus,
included VCTS at KAUS but left out mention at KSAT/KSSF/KDRT.
Amendments may be needed at KAUS if confidence in impacts increases.

After 00Z, this activity should decrease, and another round of
overnight MVFR/IFR CIGs is expected to develop persisting through the
mid morning hours.

[aggiecutter]

2.5" of rain late this afternoon.

[Brent]

the GFS is starting to get funny now... 112 in Dallas at day 10(June 1st btw)

The Euro lost all the 100s for now