Texas Spring 2018

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1281 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 25, 2018 7:52 am

Meanwhile FW has acknowledged the now well advertised heat wave coming

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1282 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri May 25, 2018 8:05 am

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Brent wrote:0z GFS has an all-time record high for Dallas on Sunday June 3rd

115 degrees :eek: 3 days 110+ and no end in sight to the 100s the entire run and zero rain

It is way too early for this...

and I wonder when I will stop even looking at the models.


I had so many March and April weekends ruined with almost freezing cold and rain, I'll take this. I guess it's sweet revenge for those of us on Team heat Miser?


While I would guess the reference above is just some good natured kidding, I’m going to put my moderator hat on and note that the mention of 2008 and 2011 kind of heat is a serious matter. If such a long stretch of weather were to occur here again in Texas, it’s a potentially real multibillion dollar weather disaster that could impact millions of people for weeks.

Hopefully, the heat isn’t as extreme or locked into place as talked about above. If that were to happen - and the hope here is that it will not - such prolonged record heat has dire consequences even in a state like Texas.

For starters, it can bring crippling drought and disaster to Texas ranchers and farmers, loss of crops, little hay production, distress and death to cattle (thousands died in 2011), rising cattle feed prices, etc. Ultimately, that can mean higher prices at the grocery store.

Lake levels fall rapidly, game and fish populations get stressed and suffer higher mortality, grass and other vegetation dies, gazillions of trees can die (over 300 million died in 2011), huge wildfires can burn (some 4 million acres burned and more than 2,900 homes were destroyed in the wildfires of 2011), and people, especially those with little or no AC suffer and some die (46 Texans were reported to have died of heat related causes in 2011).

Add in infrastructure problems that can develop, enormous energy consumption, and high utility bills (that some people have difficulty in paying) and there are no winners in such heat waves.

Unless you’re in the air conditioning business, I suppose.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1283 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri May 25, 2018 8:10 am

Texas Snowman wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Brent wrote:0z GFS has an all-time record high for Dallas on Sunday June 3rd

115 degrees :eek: 3 days 110+ and no end in sight to the 100s the entire run and zero rain

It is way too early for this...

and I wonder when I will stop even looking at the models.


I had so many March and April weekends ruined with almost freezing cold and rain, I'll take this. I guess it's sweet revenge for those of us on Team heat Miser?


While I would guess the reference above is just some good natured kidding, I’m going to put my moderator hat on and note that the mention of 2008 and 2011 kind of heat is a serious matter. If such weather were to occur here in Texas over the foreseeable future, it’s a real multibillion weather disaster that would impact millions of people for weeks.

Hopefully, the heat isn’t as extreme or locked into place as talked about above. If that were to happen - and the hope here is that it will not - such prolonged record heat has dire consequences even in a state like Texas.

For starters, it can bring crippling drought and disaster to Texas ranchers and farmers, loss of crops, little hay production, distress and death to cattle (thousands died in 2011), rising cattle feed prices, etc. Ultimately, that can mean higher prices at the grocery store.

Lake levels fall rapidly, game and fish populations get stressed and suffer higher mortality, grass and other vegetation dies, gazillions of trees can die (over 300 million died in 2011), huge wildfires can burn (some 4 million acres burned and more than 2,900 homes were destroyed in the wildfires of 2011), and people, especially those with little or no AC suffer and some die (46 Texans were reported to have died of heat related causes in 2011).

Add in infrastructure problems that can develop, enormous energy consumption, and high utility bills (that some people have difficulty in paying) and there are no winners in such heat waves.

Unless you’re in the air conditioning business, I suppose.

2011 was a literal nighmare for those of us in the agriculture and livestock industry. Most in this area are still feeling the effects of it, financially, cattle weight, soil conditions and ground water pH. All contributed to the prolonged heat and drought.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1284 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 25, 2018 8:12 am

Heat is the deadliest weather phenomenon. More than floods, tornadoes, cold, hail. lightning etc. It is also the most straining on the power grid, I suspect ERCOT will be asking most residents to bring down some power use during peak demands. It's a little early to be comparing it to 2011 and 2008. Those years had feedback 500mb ridging. It wasn't the strongest ridges, it was just persistent and hovered over Texas due to the drought feedback.

This is a sprawling, large 500mb heat ridge. Meaning it is short but intense and not entirely of feedback but because of larger scale forcing. It will shift and move, degrade if and when the 500mb pattern changes.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1285 Postby JDawg512 » Fri May 25, 2018 11:43 am

Ntxw wrote:Heat is the deadliest weather phenomenon. More than floods, tornadoes, cold, hail. lightning etc. It is also the most straining on the power grid, I suspect ERCOT will be asking most residents to bring down some power use during peak demands. It's a little early to be comparing it to 2011 and 2008. Those years had feedback 500mb ridging. It wasn't the strongest ridges, it was just persistent and hovered over Texas due to the drought feedback.

This is a sprawling, large 500mb heat ridge. Meaning it is short but intense and not entirely of feedback but because of larger scale forcing. It will shift and move, degrade if and when the 500mb pattern changes.


And yet this 500mb heat ridge may bring record breaking temps higher than at this time in 2011, that in itself will exacerbate an already established drought feedback loop which has persisted for months over a large area of the state. With a tropical system developing and making landfall east of Texas, whatever moisture we have in the atmosphere will be sucked away being on the west subsiding side which will only aid in heating us up. I think for the sake of preparation in the event of.. (though we all agree do not want to happen) a long, very hot and very dry summer. Officials here in Austin have already come out to alert the public to be ready for a severe fire season, Austin water is reminding everyone to check irrigation and stay water wise. There are definetly differences between now and 2011 or 2008, but we've been spoiled with some wet years, especially a very wet 2015 which brought too much rain. We knew a brutal year was just a matter of time, that time has arrived.

I hope we end summer on a wet note, if I could get that darn import part for my Rain Machine, I'd create a 2007 summer for all of Texas. For now there isn't anything significant or concrete on the horizon. That can and hopefully will change but at least for the next 3 weeks, we are looking at hot and dry. Well I guess I'll prepare for my deep slumber. My senses will alert me of rain and I'll wake up but I guess this will be my last post in the Spring Thread. I hope everyone has a great and safe Memorial Day weekend.
Last edited by JDawg512 on Fri May 25, 2018 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1286 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri May 25, 2018 11:44 am

Thunderstorms along the Red River near Denison. Lot of lightning, thunder, and heavy rain.

I like it!
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1287 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri May 25, 2018 11:56 am

JDawg512 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Heat is the deadliest weather phenomenon. More than floods, tornadoes, cold, hail. lightning etc. It is also the most straining on the power grid, I suspect ERCOT will be asking most residents to bring down some power use during peak demands. It's a little early to be comparing it to 2011 and 2008. Those years had feedback 500mb ridging. It wasn't the strongest ridges, it was just persistent and hovered over Texas due to the drought feedback.

This is a sprawling, large 500mb heat ridge. Meaning it is short but intense and not entirely of feedback but because of larger scale forcing. It will shift and move, degrade if and when the 500mb pattern changes.


And yet this 500mb heat ridge may bring record breaking temps higher than at this time in 2011, that in itself will exacerbate an already established drought feedback loop which has persisted for months over a large area of the state. With a tropical system developing and making landfall east of Texas, whatever moisture we have in the atmosphere will be sucked away being on the west subsiding side which will only aid in heating us up. I think for the sake of preparation in the event of.. (though we all agree do not want to happen) a long, very hot and very dry summer. Officials here in Austin have already come out to alert the public to be ready for a severe fire season, Austin water is reminding everyone to check irrigation and stay water wise. There are definetly differences between now and 2011 or 2008, but we've been spoiled with some wet years, especially a very wet 2015 which brought too much rain. We knew a brutal year was just a matter of time, that time has arrived.

I hope we end summer on a wet note, if I could get that darn import part for my Rain Machine, I'd create a 2007 summer for all of Texas. For now there isn't anything significant or concrete on the horizon. That can and hopefully will change but at least for the next 3 weeks, we are looking at hot and dry. Well I guess I'll prepare for my deep slumber. My senses will alert me of rain and I'll wake up but I guess this will be my last post in the Spring Thread. I hope everyone has a great and safe Memorial Day weekend.


Great writeup! Wish I could disagree. Depressing. You did bring up 2007. That was a great Summer! I can't recall exactly, but didn't that wet pattern establish itself in early June? It was hot and dry before that, but a complex of storms in Oklahoma created a boundary which moved south.

I think I remember them talking about it on the news. Basically, the boundary created low pressure, which parked itself over central Texas most of the Summer, creating lots of rain and flooding.

I don't think we hit 100 until August of that year. Even in 2015, it was late July before we hit 100. So, I guess we need to look to Oklahoma for relief! ;) Storms would have to overcome a stubborn ridge. You have a great Memorial Day weekend too!
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1288 Postby Brent » Fri May 25, 2018 12:30 pm

Rain is moving into DFW. This is not a drill. :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1289 Postby TarrantWx » Fri May 25, 2018 12:57 pm

Brent wrote:Rain is moving into DFW. This is not a drill. :lol:


The East side of DFW, like normal... :roll:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1290 Postby WeatherNewbie » Fri May 25, 2018 1:00 pm

no rain in north richardson right now, but the outflow winds are quite impressive.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1291 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 25, 2018 1:09 pm

TarrantWx wrote:
Brent wrote:Rain is moving into DFW. This is not a drill. :lol:


The East side of DFW, like normal... :roll:


There may be some additional development to the WNW this evening. NW flow aloft on the northeastern flank of the building High Pressure dome before it settles in and quashes everything :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1292 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri May 25, 2018 1:33 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TarrantWx wrote:
Brent wrote:Rain is moving into DFW. This is not a drill. :lol:


The East side of DFW, like normal... :roll:


There may be some additional development to the WNW this evening. NW flow aloft on the northeastern flank of the building High Pressure dome before it settles in and quashes everything :lol:


Then, Arkansas and Missouri will be on the NW flow of the NE flank. :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1293 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri May 25, 2018 2:16 pm

Cooled down 15 degrees. Nice. No rain though in north FW though. All east.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1294 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri May 25, 2018 3:34 pm

The EWX verifies that we need to move to the Summer 2018 thread. :wink:

In the short term, I'm in Williamson County. Maybe I'll get relief this evening, maybe not(?), based on this discussion. Last time for relief for a while in any case, as we all have engrained in us already.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 251929
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
229 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
All is fairly quiet across South-Central Texas at the present hour
with just some fair weather cumulus clouds around the region. Showers
and isolated storms have remained well east of the CWA and think the
bulk or if not all of the activity will remain out of the CWA this
afternoon. Have left the mention of isolated thunder with a 10 PoP
through the afternoon hours for the eastern counties. The focus then
shifts to a complex of storms northeast of Dallas that continues to
slide to the southeast.
This main complex will remain well to our
northeast and am not expecting any direct impacts from it.
Otherwise, tonight will be warm with lows in the 70s for much of the
CWA with upper 60s possible for the Hill Country. Have a rain-free
forecast for the remainder of the short-term forecast as the upper
ridge continues to amplify and move closer to our area from the west.
Highs tomorrow will be quite warm, especially for the western CWA
where highs above 100 are expected. Middle to upper 90s can be
expected for the eastern counties. Lows tomorrow night will be very
similar to tonight. However, the past few runs of the
HRRR develops some storms along the western
end of the outflow boundary west of Fort Worth around 4 PM. The
northwest flow aloft pattern we are in would eventually bring any
storms in this area south to near Williamson County this evening.
Have kept PoPs below 15 percent for now, but did include a mention of
isolated thunderstorms for Williamson County in the 00z-03z time
frame. Latest visible satellite imagery does show from agitated cu
in the area the HRRR develops convection and this increased
confidence slightly to warrant a mention of the iso thunder. The
forecast will likely be updated closer to 00z to either increase or
decrease PoPs depending on how the potential storms evolve. If a
storm does develop and make it to the CWA, it could be strong.


&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The long-term forecast will remain dominated by the upper level
ridge. Hot and dry weather can be expected with highs in the upper
90s to 104 degree range each day with the higher values in the
southwestern CWA. The GFS has come more into an agreement with the
ECMWF for our area as south/southeast winds in the lower levels of
the atmosphere keep temperatures from getting too out of hand.
Otherwise, no rain is expected in the long-term under the ridge, Welcome
to Summer 2018.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1295 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri May 25, 2018 3:49 pm

HRRR puts it in my area at 9pm(?). Looks like a supercell.

Image
Image

Texas Tech model puts a complex here around 2 or 3am tonight. We'll see. Something to talk about in any case, instead of the same ole same ole.
Image
Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1296 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri May 25, 2018 8:53 pm

Tornado Warning
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
845 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

TXC411-260200-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180526T0200Z/
San Saba TX-
845 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN SAN SABA COUNTY...

At 844 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Richland Springs, moving south at 20 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

The tornado will be near...
Richland Springs around 850 PM CDT.
Algerita and Sloan around 900 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Harkeyville, Spring Creek and Locker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1297 Postby Cerlin » Fri May 25, 2018 9:12 pm

I’m hearing reports of multiple tornadoes being reported in San Saba County by the sheriff. Take it with a grain of salt but thankfully it’s a sparsely populated region.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1298 Postby Haris » Fri May 25, 2018 9:35 pm

MARSHA HARTY FROM SAN SABA FD HAS REPORTED AN INJURY . HRRR and WRF was right!

MASON CO UNDER A NADO WARNING UNTIL 945PM ***
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1299 Postby Brent » Fri May 25, 2018 10:20 pm

yuck Rick Mitchell on NBC 5 "10 days of 100+ possible" :double:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1300 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 25, 2018 10:32 pm

Brent wrote:yuck Rick Mitchell on NBC 5 "10 days of 100+ possible" :double:


2017 had 10 days altogether. Since 2013 there hasn't been 20+ at DFW in any given summer. That luck streak will come to an end.
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