Texas Spring 2018

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Brent
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1301 Postby Brent » Sat May 26, 2018 12:14 am

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:yuck Rick Mitchell on NBC 5 "10 days of 100+ possible" :double:


2017 had 10 days altogether. Since 2013 there hasn't been 20+ at DFW in any given summer. That luck streak will come to an end.


yeah, been lucky since I moved here after summer 2014... had to happen eventually I guess...
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1302 Postby Ntxw » Sat May 26, 2018 7:14 am

I looked back at F6 data and I think a summer like 2009 is probably likely. The Pacific and Atlantic both above and below resembles it. It had a growing CP El Nino with low solar. It was not a cool summer, it was fairly hot with prodding heat waves June, July, and August. Might be a touch hotter this go round.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1303 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sat May 26, 2018 4:21 pm

Local news report of tornado(es) last night:

http://www.kxan.com/news/local/hill-cou ... 1199859539
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1304 Postby Brent » Sat May 26, 2018 6:02 pm

Ntxw wrote:I looked back at F6 data and I think a summer like 2009 is probably likely. The Pacific and Atlantic both above and below resembles it. It had a growing CP El Nino with low solar. It was not a cool summer, it was fairly hot with prodding heat waves June, July, and August. Might be a touch hotter this go round.


I could handle that as long as the winter is like that :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1305 Postby Rgv20 » Sat May 26, 2018 6:39 pm

Extended forecast for my area....Brutal! :x

Thursday and Friday 104 and Saturday 103.....

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1306 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat May 26, 2018 10:36 pm

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I looked back at F6 data and I think a summer like 2009 is probably likely. The Pacific and Atlantic both above and below resembles it. It had a growing CP El Nino with low solar. It was not a cool summer, it was fairly hot with prodding heat waves June, July, and August. Might be a touch hotter this go round.


I could handle that as long as the winter is like that :lol:


Speaking of winter... :D

@BigJoeBastardi: JAMSTEC with modoki enso look closest to 2014 with forecast for upcoming winter
Looks like a good idea, matches our analogs...
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1307 Postby Brent » Sat May 26, 2018 11:35 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I looked back at F6 data and I think a summer like 2009 is probably likely. The Pacific and Atlantic both above and below resembles it. It had a growing CP El Nino with low solar. It was not a cool summer, it was fairly hot with prodding heat waves June, July, and August. Might be a touch hotter this go round.


I could handle that as long as the winter is like that :lol:


Speaking of winter... :D

@BigJoeBastardi: JAMSTEC with modoki enso look closest to 2014 with forecast for upcoming winter
Looks like a good idea, matches our analogs...


I'm always up for winter talk... :lol:

14-15 my first winter here still the best one by a mile
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1308 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun May 27, 2018 2:17 am

Don't look at the 0z Euro if you don't like the heat. Yikes...
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1309 Postby TheProfessor » Sun May 27, 2018 2:19 am

This past winter was fun for me. But I'd still like to see more. I've had 2 below average and an average snowfall so far. We got 30.7" this year(though I missed a good 6" over winter and spring break) That's actually 4 inches above average. That still doesn't balance out the 19" and 12"ish I saw my first 2 years so I'm hoping for a 40" inch season. 42.3" would make it so I saw an average amount of snowfall in 4 years. Fingers crossed lol.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1310 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 27, 2018 8:39 am

500mb analysis showing intensifying ridge over the Chihuahuan desert into the southern plains. Alberto is spinning in the eastern gulf scouring all flow of surface moisture away from Texas. The following week the ridge will continue to intensify and peak next weekend. WPC qpf shows a big blank across Texas except far southeast Texas. Map below says it all as near record early season heatwave ensues.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1311 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 27, 2018 9:08 am

06z GFS was brutal for DFW... 0.00" of rain and plenty of 100s over the next two weeks
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1312 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun May 27, 2018 10:50 am

Ugh. So glad I am off to San Diego this coming weekend for vacation.

The only plus is the neighborhood pool will warm up nicely. But, it's only almost too hot even for the pool at some of the insane temps predicted.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1313 Postby Brent » Sun May 27, 2018 11:15 am

FWD had some optimism??? I don't really see it but hey... :lol:

The onslaught of several days of robust convection at the northern
terminus of the building ridge may ultimately help temper the push
of higher heights into the region during the middle and end of
next week. In fact, extended ensemble guidance has toned down high
temperature forecasts a bit Wednesday and into next weekend.
We`ll
continue to closely follow the ensemble means at this point, and
have knocked high temperatures down a smidge from the previous
forecast. Still, temperatures will be near the century mark
through this period, with daily heat indices climbing to 100-105
degrees (locally higher in places).

Interestingly, extended model guidance shows a front sliding into
Oklahoma, and even into parts of North Texas, sometime this
weekend. With climatology arguing against such an occurrence,
this may be wishful thinking, but something we`ll keep an eye on
nonetheless.

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1314 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 27, 2018 11:24 am

Sounds like that was based on a couple runs of the Euro and GFS lalaland. Its gone in the recent runs so wishful thinking most likely :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1315 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 27, 2018 11:27 am

In time though the 500mb pattern will retrograde as the MJO and tropical forcing in the Pacific moves east. That won't be till mid or late June for relief
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1316 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun May 27, 2018 11:37 am

Ntx: I remember you talking about the negative feedback loop that occurs with dry ground leading into the summer. I know here in houston lately we have been getting some showers, so that helps but C Tx and the rest of Texas, i dont think thats the case. Not much humidity will be pumped into the air with dry ground compared to if the ground was green and plush. Ridges are going to stick around a bit i think this summer.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1317 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 27, 2018 12:21 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ntx: I remember you talking about the negative feedback loop that occurs with dry ground leading into the summer. I know here in houston lately we have been getting some showers, so that helps but C Tx and the rest of Texas, i dont think thats the case. Not much humidity will be pumped into the air with dry ground compared to if the ground was green and plush. Ridges are going to stick around a bit i think this summer.


Yeah. It will be interesting once the 500mb ridge exits. If we are in the feedback loop you will still see 95-100 vs 90-95. May was warm without strong ridging.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1318 Postby Haris » Sun May 27, 2018 12:48 pm

Image
Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1319 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun May 27, 2018 1:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ntx: I remember you talking about the negative feedback loop that occurs with dry ground leading into the summer. I know here in houston lately we have been getting some showers, so that helps but C Tx and the rest of Texas, i dont think thats the case. Not much humidity will be pumped into the air with dry ground compared to if the ground was green and plush. Ridges are going to stick around a bit i think this summer.


Yeah. It will be interesting once the 500mb ridge exits. If we are in the feedback loop you will still see 95-100 vs 90-95. May was warm without strong ridging.



I was in San Saba a few weeks ago and surprisingly, the brush was pretty built up. Lots of high grass and bushes. Might help some.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1320 Postby Haris » Sun May 27, 2018 3:06 pm

Image

:sun: :sun: :sun: :sun:

Here is my forecast / Going CONSERVATIVE for next weekend as we are a week away but many models have 104-108
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