Texas Spring 2018

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1321 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun May 27, 2018 4:10 pm

In memory of the tornado outbreak in 1997. EWX shared it.
https://youtu.be/PhjFiiff69o
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1322 Postby Brent » Sun May 27, 2018 10:23 pm

hmmm well NBC 5 went back to find a big early June heat wave and had to go back to 1911(10 straight days 100+)

But then July was cooler and very wet...

We can hope :lol:

GFS/Euro still have temps near 110 next weekend for Dallas. The GFS then has a front, the Euro stays with extreme heat
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1323 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 28, 2018 10:59 am

Euro EPS has 9 straight days of 100s for DFW! Ugly :(
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1324 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon May 28, 2018 2:05 pm

A part of one entence stuck out to me of the EWX discussion. Probably teasing again.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Little change in the weather pattern through Tuesday will lead to a
continuation of hot and dry conditions for south central Texas. With
the subtropical ridge axis building in from northeast Mexico into
Texas, look for another round of highs in the mid 90s to near 105
today and Tuesday. Overnight lows will largely remain in the 70s,
except for some upper 60s in the Hill Country. Record high
temperatures are not expected to be broken today.

However, we will be very close to record highs on Tuesday at Austin
Mabry (99 in 1927), Austin Bergstrom (98 in 1951) and Del Rio (104 in
1927). The record high of 102 set in 1927 at San Antonio appears
safe.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
High pressure in the mid and upper levels continues to strengthen
through the remainder of this week. We see no opportunity for
rainfall in this pattern, but are taking note of the transition to
northwest flow aloft on Sunday.
Temperatures will continue to warm
through the period, with the warmest days expected to occur Friday,
Saturday and possibly into Sunday. The low-level thermal ridge begins
to strengthen across northern and central Texas late this week and we
expect at least 105 degrees along the Rio Grande with upper 90s to
near 100 elsewhere. The medium range models do show a cold front
moving into north Texas on Sunday, but it is unclear if this boundary
will make it into central Texas. Given the time of year and the
strength of the ridge axis to our west, we will keep the forecast
warm and dry on Sunday.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1325 Postby Haris » Mon May 28, 2018 2:33 pm

loving this weather! I hope we see this continue through fall and a nice 80F -90F winter ! 100s= awesomeness! Let the heat and sun bake !!! WOOHOO


8-) 8-) :wink:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1326 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 28, 2018 2:43 pm

After being mostly positive most of May, the SOI will see some extended negative values the coming days to a few weeks. Couple that with moving WWB and MJO, I am optimistic mid to late June there may be some relief coming

There are forces at play for a golden Nino event second half of this year. Fingers crossed

Image

I would not be shocked if July was cooler and wetter than normal, similar to 2014
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1327 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon May 28, 2018 7:44 pm

Ntxw wrote:After being mostly positive most of May, the SOI will see some extended negative values the coming days to a few weeks. Couple that with moving WWB and MJO, I am optimistic mid to late June there may be some relief coming

There are forces at play for a golden Nino event second half of this year. Fingers crossed

http://i64.tinypic.com/vphnae.png

I would not be shocked if July was cooler and wetter than normal, similar to 2014


I remember July 2014. Lots of thundershowers and 80s temps. Please God!
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1328 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon May 28, 2018 7:45 pm

Haris wrote:loving this weather! I hope we see this continue through fall and a nice 80F -90F winter ! 100s= awesomeness! Let the heat and sun bake !!! WOOHOO


8-) 8-) :wink:


:uarrow: :lol:

Love it
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1329 Postby Haris » Mon May 28, 2018 10:15 pm

Yeah , while its ugly currently and while it will remain like that for another few weeks , we will see rain sometime . It aint gone forever. And the 2nd half of summer should be better too IMO ... Hang in there group!
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1330 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue May 29, 2018 8:43 am

Cruel irony with June fronts and compressional warming. Insult to injury. :roll:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
330 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The ridge will continue to slowly strengthen through Saturday with
temperatures remaining in that upper 90s to 105 degree range.
Luckily, low-level winds will remain out a south-southeast direction
which will really prevent highs from getting much higher.
Should see
some better afternoon mixing Thursday through Saturday with
afternoon dewpoints getting into the upper 50s to middle 60s. This
will prevent heat index values from getting to heat advisory
criteria.

Models show a strong trough axis passing through the Ohio Valley
Saturday night with a corresponding weakness in the upper level
ridge. The GFS/ECMWF both show a weak frontal boundary approaching
the CWA Sunday afternoon. One might think a front in June would be a
welcome change, but slow moving fronts that stall around the area in
summer lead to a process called compressional warming where warmer
air compresses and pools ahead of the cold front.
The ECMWF warms
things up above 100 degrees for much of the CWA ahead of the front.
The temperature forecast Sunday will be dependent on when and if the
cold front approaches the area. Some relief could be possible in the
evening hours as the front could bring some isolated to scattered
showers and storms
, but the overall chances of this is too low to
mention in the forecast at this time. Sunday should be our hottest
day of the forecast period with highs a degree or two lower on
Monday.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1331 Postby bubba hotep » Tue May 29, 2018 8:46 am

Euro Weeklies were ugly for Texas but I've noticed that over the past 6 months or so they have been reluctant to give into pattern switches. The Control run has basically no rain the entire run but back in April it mostly missed this June pattern flip.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1332 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue May 29, 2018 10:41 am

Ntxw wrote:After being mostly positive most of May, the SOI will see some extended negative values the coming days to a few weeks. Couple that with moving WWB and MJO, I am optimistic mid to late June there may be some relief coming

There are forces at play for a golden Nino event second half of this year. Fingers crossed


I would not be shocked if July was cooler and wetter than normal, similar to 2014

I sure am waiting impatiently for the wet pattern to unfold. Thankfully we are in the early stages of an El Nino and not a La Nina. Rain will come.

Heck, even in 2015 we had the driest 3 month stretch in history around here for early Fall and we still managed the wettest year overall in history.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1333 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 29, 2018 10:56 am

Haris wrote:loving this weather! I hope we see this continue through fall and a nice 80F -90F winter ! 100s= awesomeness! Let the heat and sun bake !!! WOOHOO

8-) 8-) :wink:


I like this guy! :firedevil:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1334 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue May 29, 2018 1:26 pm

Headed in the right direction?

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1335 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue May 29, 2018 3:06 pm

Ridge expected to retrograde to the west later in the second week of June 6-12th, according to the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means, per the CPC. Wish it would happen sooner. It was too uncomfortable to walk outside at 9am this morning imo.

For Wednesday June 06 - Tuesday June 12: The GFS and ECMWF ensemble means maintain the anomalous upper-level ridge (500-hpa heights above 588-dm), centered over the southern Great Plains and western Gulf Coast, through early Week-2. The 0Z and 6Z GFS ensemble means indicate a retrogression of the anomalous upper-level ridge to the western U.S. later in Week-2. A slight to moderate risk of excessive heat (heat index values above 105 degrees F or the 90th percentile) are posted for the south-central U.S., to the east of the 100th meridian that are typically more humid. Based on the expected retrogression to the longwave pattern, the excessive heat hazard is discontinued beyond day 10. The most likely area for much above-normal temperatures is expected to shift from the south-central to the western U.S. during Week-2.

The dynamical models are favoring above-normal precipitation during Week-2 across the Southwest. Given the time of year and lack of low-level moisture, any rainfall amounts are likely to be minor. However, lightning associated with dry thunderstorms pose a wildfire danger, especially due to the ongoing drought conditions.

The US Drought Monitor, valid on May 22, indicates that the coverage of severe to exceptional drought has again increased slightly this week, from 16.71 percent last week to 16.84 percent. Parts of the Southwest improved from D4 to D3 drought, while conditions in the Oklahoma panhandle and northern Texas continue to degrade.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.php
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1336 Postby Haris » Tue May 29, 2018 3:48 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:Ridge expected to retrograde to the west later in the second week of June 6-12th, according to the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means, per the CPC. Wish it would happen sooner. It was too uncomfortable to walk outside at 9am this morning imo.

For Wednesday June 06 - Tuesday June 12: The GFS and ECMWF ensemble means maintain the anomalous upper-level ridge (500-hpa heights above 588-dm), centered over the southern Great Plains and western Gulf Coast, through early Week-2. The 0Z and 6Z GFS ensemble means indicate a retrogression of the anomalous upper-level ridge to the western U.S. later in Week-2. A slight to moderate risk of excessive heat (heat index values above 105 degrees F or the 90th percentile) are posted for the south-central U.S., to the east of the 100th meridian that are typically more humid. Based on the expected retrogression to the longwave pattern, the excessive heat hazard is discontinued beyond day 10. The most likely area for much above-normal temperatures is expected to shift from the south-central to the western U.S. during Week-2.

The dynamical models are favoring above-normal precipitation during Week-2 across the Southwest. Given the time of year and lack of low-level moisture, any rainfall amounts are likely to be minor. However, lightning associated with dry thunderstorms pose a wildfire danger, especially due to the ongoing drought conditions.

The US Drought Monitor, valid on May 22, indicates that the coverage of severe to exceptional drought has again increased slightly this week, from 16.71 percent last week to 16.84 percent. Parts of the Southwest improved from D4 to D3 drought, while conditions in the Oklahoma panhandle and northern Texas continue to degrade.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.php



Your a real weather enthusiast! Love it! And yes , the latest EPS trending WETTER !!

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1337 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed May 30, 2018 8:20 am

Haris wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:Ridge expected to retrograde to the west later in the second week of June 6-12th, according to the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means, per the CPC. Wish it would happen sooner. It was too uncomfortable to walk outside at 9am this morning imo.

For Wednesday June 06 - Tuesday June 12: The GFS and ECMWF ensemble means maintain the anomalous upper-level ridge (500-hpa heights above 588-dm), centered over the southern Great Plains and western Gulf Coast, through early Week-2. The 0Z and 6Z GFS ensemble means indicate a retrogression of the anomalous upper-level ridge to the western U.S. later in Week-2. A slight to moderate risk of excessive heat (heat index values above 105 degrees F or the 90th percentile) are posted for the south-central U.S., to the east of the 100th meridian that are typically more humid. Based on the expected retrogression to the longwave pattern, the excessive heat hazard is discontinued beyond day 10. The most likely area for much above-normal temperatures is expected to shift from the south-central to the western U.S. during Week-2.

The dynamical models are favoring above-normal precipitation during Week-2 across the Southwest. Given the time of year and lack of low-level moisture, any rainfall amounts are likely to be minor. However, lightning associated with dry thunderstorms pose a wildfire danger, especially due to the ongoing drought conditions.

The US Drought Monitor, valid on May 22, indicates that the coverage of severe to exceptional drought has again increased slightly this week, from 16.71 percent last week to 16.84 percent. Parts of the Southwest improved from D4 to D3 drought, while conditions in the Oklahoma panhandle and northern Texas continue to degrade.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.php



Your a real weather enthusiast! Love it! And yes , the latest EPS trending WETTER !!

Image


Haha. Cool! You too! My friends, family, and colleagues periodically ask me about the forecast/weather. Have a reputation just from being interested in it.lol I have a minor in atmospheric science, but that was a long time ago. Also, got asked by a couple people if I would be interested in teaching some preschoolers at a church camp for about an hour about the weather sometime in June. I didn't say yes. I wouldn't know what to say to preschoolers about weather!lol

This is a high pressure system and drought. This is a thunderstorm. This is the adiabatic lapse rate as it relates to temperatures of similar pressures of an air parcel as it expands and cools, or compresses and warms due to molecular friction, blah blah blah.
lol Anyway.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1338 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed May 30, 2018 8:22 am

It is an overall depressing discussion, but they're talking about a front Sunday and possible compressional warming, as it relates to physics. They've been pretty dull lately, but I'm geeking out on this one since it's a slightly more interesting read. :cheesy:

000
FXUS64 KEWX 300825
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
325 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Early morning water vapor imagery shows a trough of low pressure
across SW Arizona which is well depicted in both the GFS and ECMWF.
This feature will move up and over the upper level ridge centered
across Mexico through the day today into tomorrow. While it won`t
bring any precipitation to Central Texas it will strengthen the
pressure gradient, increasing the winds a bit, which will also help
drive up the relative humidity. This in turn will drive up afternoon
heat index values along the Rio Grande River under mostly sunny
skies. Heat index values of 108-110 will be possible during the
afternoon hours across the Rio Grande, while heat indexes along the
I-35 corridor range from 103-105. In both global models the ridge
axis is centered right over Central Texas through the middle and into
the end of the work week as the ridge builds northeast into Texas,
maintaining the hot and dry weather we have seen the last several
days. Afternoon highs will continue to run a good 10 degrees above
normal with mild nights.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The main forecast question for the long term is how a weak front will
impact our weather late Sunday. A large upper trough moves across the
Plains on Saturday which will help to dampen the ridge slightly. It
will also help a weak front approach South Central Texas. Depicted in
both the GFS and ECMWF the front makes its way into the area Sunday
afternoon. While both models are in agreement that the front will be
in the vicinity and possibly producing some isolated showers and
thunderstorms there are two important notes to consider. The first is
that fronts making it all the way through Central Texas is a rarity
come June through August. In the last 5 summers less than 5 fronts
have made it through in June. The second is an issue of compressional
warming verses relief. You might read cold front and get excited that
temperatures will cool behind it. Highs may be one or two degrees
lower on Monday, but the real issue may be ahead of the front Sunday
afternoon. Compressional warming occurs when air is pooled ahead of
a boundary and because of the compression warms (think physics and
how pressure and temperature are related).
This means that
temperature could actually increase right ahead of the front on
Sunday causing the near 100 degree heat to get even warmer. It looks
like Saturday and Sunday will be the warmest days of the forecast
period with the likelihood of SAT hitting 100 increasing while ATT
and AUS will flirt with 100 degree temperatures. The front and its
slight chance of isolated showers and storms for the Hill Country and
Austin Metro are the only decent shot at rain we will see through the
next 7 days.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1339 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed May 30, 2018 1:35 pm

Another Cat. 5 in the Gulf. :roll:

Image
Image
Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1340 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed May 30, 2018 3:48 pm

:uarrow: Umm, I don’t think that’s how to do that.

I think dhweather taught us that it goes something like this:

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!!!

:D
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