Texas Spring 2018

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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1341 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed May 30, 2018 4:02 pm

Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: Umm, I don’t think that’s how to do that.

I think dhweather taught us that it goes something like this:

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!!!

:D


I know. :lol: I'm just bummed about what happened in Texas with this last tropical system the Gulf showed this far in advance.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1342 Postby Brent » Wed May 30, 2018 5:19 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: Umm, I don’t think that’s how to do that.

I think dhweather taught us that it goes something like this:

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!!!

:D


I know. :lol: I'm just bummed about what happened in Texas with this last tropical system the Gulf showed this far in advance.


Ikr

This alleged pattern change can't come soon enough
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1343 Postby Haris » Wed May 30, 2018 5:21 pm

ICON has a dying cluster of storms make it close to Austin Sunday..


You can often get these during NW flow events.

Keep an eye out . Just sayin'
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1344 Postby Ntxw » Wed May 30, 2018 7:23 pm

DFW actually has not hit 100 yet and actual temps (so far) this week have been a few degrees below the warmer guidance and well as some TV forecast. Likely due to vegetation still fairly lush along and east of I-35 corridor.



In other news...this thread will close tomorrow night and we transition to the summer thread
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1345 Postby Brent » Wed May 30, 2018 9:34 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW actually has not hit 100 yet and actual temps (so far) this week have been a few degrees below the warmer guidance and well as some TV forecast. Likely due to vegetation still fairly lush along and east of I-35 corridor.



In other news...this thread will close tomorrow night and we transition to the summer thread


yeah Euro has record highs nearly every day(except Sunday) but so far its been too warm... still too hot but could be worse.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1346 Postby bubba hotep » Wed May 30, 2018 10:11 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1347 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed May 30, 2018 10:41 pm

Haris wrote:ICON has a dying cluster of storms make it close to Austin Sunday..


You can often get these during NW flow events.

Keep an eye out . Just sayin'


Those NW flow decaying storms can be our saving grace sometimes. They can set up outflow boundaries for heating to work on, creating new storms the next day if you're in the right spot.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1348 Postby Brent » Thu May 31, 2018 12:16 am

bubba hotep wrote:Image


Hurricane into Northern Mexico at the same time on the 0z GFS :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1349 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu May 31, 2018 2:03 pm

Since we're still in a Spring month for a few hours longer, the local fox weather guy on Fox said that the average HIGH temperature for Austin on May 31st is 90 degrees, average LOW is 70 degrees. He said we'll zoom past the average high at lunch. I'm thinking, "DUHHHH."

I've gotten so used to 90s/100s with little rain, I have forgotten what average May weather is like. :cry:

Is the Summer thread on the forum yet?
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1350 Postby Brent » Thu May 31, 2018 3:02 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:Since we're still in a Spring month for a few hours longer, the local fox weather guy on Fox said that the average HIGH temperature for Austin on May 31st is 90 degrees, average LOW is 70 degrees. He said we'll zoom past the average high at lunch. I'm thinking, "DUHHHH."

I've gotten so used to 90s/100s with little rain, I have forgotten what average May weather is like. :cry:

Is the Summer thread on the forum yet?


Its down the page locked

Gfs and Euro both have a little rain for Dallas. Hope.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1351 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu May 31, 2018 3:13 pm

Looks like June comes in where May left off.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
213 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
An upper ridge will continue to control our local weather pattern,
which means more hot and dry. Some areas in the west today have
been enjoying some extended cloudcover as some moisture is trapped
beneath a strong temperature inversion. This is delaying the
heating along the Rio Grande but still feel that hitting high
temperatures above 100 degrees is still possible. Will be
forecasting a return of early morning cloudiness to most of the CWA
and then more sun and heat for Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
A wave moving across the Central and Northern Plains
will try to push a weak front or boundary south into our CWA on
Sunday. Will keep the small 20 percent chance of rain we currently
have in the forecast for mainly Sunday evening....could also be late
Sunday afternoon over the far NE section of the CWA. Should be
isolated at best. While we get less than 24 hours of a weak N or NE
wind, this boundary should quickly wash away by Monday and the hot
and dry will continue with more upper ridging establishing across the
desert southwest and West Texas. Our blended output was producing
a few areas of 20 pop mid week next week...have smoothed those out of
the forecast for now.


Meanwhile, this looks familiar. WOOOHOOOOO!! Keep those tropical storms east! We need to cherish our dryness!!! Keeps the mosquitoes at bay! Yes!!! Party!!! :D :37:

Image
Image
Image
Image

BRING ON THE HEAT AND DRY!!! It's been way too cold and wet a Spring!! Happy Texas Summer! :sun: :sun: :firedevil:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1352 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu May 31, 2018 3:35 pm

CPCs Monthly Drought Outlook, issued today. Time to hibernate.

Image
Latest Monthly Assessment - Widespread heavy rainfall, including the landfall of Subtropical Storm Alberto, brought substantial drought relief to the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS during the past month. As of May 29, no drought was indicated east of the Mississippi River on the U.S. Drought Monitor, except for a small region in western Illinois. Across the Plains and Midwest, hot weather reduced available soil moisture and generated some crop stress, but ample convection kept widespread degradation at bay, and even provided some drought relief to northeastern Colorado, Kansas, and the southern Plains. Drier conditions caused some drought expansion across northeastern Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the northern Plains.

During June, a continuation of enhanced ridging over the central U.S. is anticipated to maintain hot temperatures and subnormal rainfall across much of the central U.S., with the highest probabilities over the central and southern Plains. Given the widespread precipitation deficits already in place at the start of the period, this region is at an enhanced risk for flash drought conditions. Accordingly, this outlook depicts a large area of development over Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and northern Colorado. Expansion of drought conditions is also forecast across the middle Mississippi Valley due to the potential for continued heat and near- to below-normal rainfall, but confidence is reduced due to the potential for widespread mesoscale convective system (MCS) thunderstorm activity downstream of the central U.S. ridge. Short term convective rainfall over the northern Plains may bring some relief to ongoing drought across northern and eastern North Dakota, but above-normal temperatures may reduce the potential for more widespread relief. June is a climatologically dry time of year for much of the West, but slow expansion of drought across Oregon is favored due to increased chances for below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures.

No drought is currently indicated or forecast to develop across Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Adam Allgood

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1353 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu May 31, 2018 3:44 pm

Just reading through an old thread from 2010-2011, before I came on board. Wow. So interesting reading through the comments from that infamous year.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=95607&hilit=Texas+Summer+2011+Texas&start=520
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1354 Postby Haris » Thu May 31, 2018 5:32 pm

Truly hate the weather . I cant stop complaining , im sorry LOL... I need to get my anger out .

Problem is , it is HOT and DRY . Not just one of the two. And we are the only ones!

Atlanta and the E are enjoying rain and 80s... SMH
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1355 Postby Brent » Thu May 31, 2018 6:04 pm

Haris wrote:Truly hate the weather . I cant stop complaining , im sorry LOL... I need to get my anger out .

Problem is , it is HOT and DRY . Not just one of the two. And we are the only ones!

Atlanta and the E are enjoying rain and 80s... SMH


still can't believe how this month turned out... never thought hot and dry would be May's big story...

remember when it was cold in mid April? :(
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1356 Postby bubba hotep » Thu May 31, 2018 7:07 pm

18z GFS had the last run of May really go out with a Bang!
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1357 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 31, 2018 7:26 pm

Summer thread will open in a few hours and this thread will close.


Also a quick invite, don't forget to post your guess for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season! You only need to post X/X/X (number of named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes). You don't even have to know anything about the season to make a blind guess! All for fun and bragging rights if you get it right :D

Link to the Poll

Storm2k 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1358 Postby Brent » Thu May 31, 2018 7:30 pm

bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS had the last run of May really go out with a Bang!


you're telling me, that'd be something :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1359 Postby Haris » Thu May 31, 2018 7:52 pm

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS had the last run of May really go out with a Bang!


you're telling me, that'd be something :roflmao:




AUSTIN TX HURRICANE! LOCK IT IN!!!!
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#1360 Postby Brent » Thu May 31, 2018 10:28 pm

well there was only 1 100 degree day in NBC 5's 10 day

there was talk of 10 in a row last week... small victories as we close out the Spring thread!
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