Texas Spring 2018

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gboudx
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#161 Postby gboudx » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:36 pm

I'm in north Austin this week. What beautiful weather here. Almost makes up for the hideous looking traffic on 183.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#162 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:59 pm

Models still offering a glimpse of hope for snow this month.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#163 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:50 pm

Brent wrote:just looking at the models I think Dallas is more likely to hit 90 than have snow...

but maybe I'm wrong :lol: But after our luck this winter I ain't holding my breath


What will be the max temp this summer? 105? 110? Higher? That is more likely than snow at this point. However, I'll hold out hope until mid-April lol
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#164 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:32 am

bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:just looking at the models I think Dallas is more likely to hit 90 than have snow...

but maybe I'm wrong :lol: But after our luck this winter I ain't holding my breath


What will be the max temp this summer? 105? 110? Higher? That is more likely than snow at this point. However, I'll hold out hope until mid-April lol


sorry I'm still bitter it didn't really snow here... :lol: :P
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#165 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:15 am

Well the next 7 days ish is 70s and 80s. Lows 50s and 60s with a tad cooler end of period. So at least for that stretch no snow likely. Still looking for some sig rain. That gets us to the end of March.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#166 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:18 am

In other news the sun is running 12 days with no spots. Over half (54% of the days so far) in 2018 have been spotless. We are nearing the solar min like 2008-2010.

What does that all mean? Means rooting for a weak/moderate El Nino to start summer or fall. There is arguably no other better ENSO pairing. Golden ticket for snow. 1963-64, 2009-10 are such years

The best would be for El Nino to read between 1C to 1.5C
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#167 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:20 am

Looks like some low end svr wx threats across DFW this weekend, certainly enough to keep things interesting. It doesn't look like a widespread rain event but you can never throw out the chance of storms building into a MCS off the dryline. The interesting thing about Saturday is that the dryline will be retreating back west across DFW during the day vs. mixing in from the west.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#168 Postby Portastorm » Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:36 am

gboudx wrote:I'm in north Austin this week. What beautiful weather here. Almost makes up for the hideous looking traffic on 183.


Dude ... glad you're here. But my advice to you is to stay away from central Austin. It's SXSW time. Hundreds of thousands of guests.

And I see you're enjoying our lovely traffic. We used to always say "well, at least we're not Dallas or Houston." Now it's the other way around! LOL.

Weather here has been great this week. Today should be very nice.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#169 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:49 pm

Good news everyone! I will be volunteering at the Fort Worth NWS this Summer for their student volunteer program! :D
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#170 Postby Portastorm » Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:50 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Good news everyone! I will be volunteering at the Fort Worth NWS this Summer for their student volunteer program! :D


That is awesome news! Congratulations. :D

Of course, we'll be expecting to benefit now from having an "inside source" at the NWS.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#171 Postby gboudx » Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:00 pm

Portastorm wrote:
gboudx wrote:I'm in north Austin this week. What beautiful weather here. Almost makes up for the hideous looking traffic on 183.


Dude ... glad you're here. But my advice to you is to stay away from central Austin. It's SXSW time. Hundreds of thousands of guests.

And I see you're enjoying our lovely traffic. We used to always say "well, at least we're not Dallas or Houston." Now it's the other way around! LOL.

Weather here has been great this week. Today should be very nice.


I'm going nowhere near the SXSW scene. This is actually my first time spending any time at all in Austin. I've only driven through, or around on way to Bastrop or SA. The traffic is bad, but in this area(Arboretum) I've noticed the drivers are a lot more courteous than I'm used to in the Dallas area. Drivers will actually let you in traffic rather than try and cut you off. And drivers here use those things on your cars than indicate which way you will be turning. I forget what those are called. I've heard a lot less car horns as well.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#172 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:38 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Good news everyone! I will be volunteering at the Fort Worth NWS this Summer for their student volunteer program! :D


Congrats! The more connections you can make before graduation, the better off you will be. I did a summer internship at the company I'm working at now.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#173 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:34 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Good news everyone! I will be volunteering at the Fort Worth NWS this Summer for their student volunteer program! :D


Congrats! The more connections you can make before graduation, the better off you will be. I did a summer internship at the company I'm working at now.

Great news Professor. Keep us updated this summer. It has been a joy seeing your progress over the years starting with all the posts while in class in high school. Keep it up!!
Warm one on tap for today approaching the record of 88 . Probably will fall just short. Good, I don't like running the a/c in March. Only a minor cool down next week and I have a feeling March will be well above normal when it is all said and done. Ho hum.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#174 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:42 am

Maybe a big Texas rain maker on tap? The Euro has a big western trough and PWAT values across Texas are approaching 3 STD above normal.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#175 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:45 am

The ECMWF Weeklies suggests some chilly air returns around March 27th, +/- a day or two.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#176 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:36 pm

The 12z Euro looks a lot like the 12z 12K NAM with areas north of I20 and east of I35 picking up some decent storms this weekend.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#177 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:45 pm

I agree signal is increasing for a late month cold snap. WWB in the central Pacific is boosting odds of an El Nino to try and get going.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/974654748958904321




Image

Made a post how below the ocean surface we are very close to 2009 right now in the ENSO thread. In years that El Nino tries to come on, April tends to be cool/wet
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#178 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:21 pm

March 2009 has been a pretty decent analog up to this point in the month.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#179 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:55 pm

About 20% of the Euro EPS members and the control get some winter wx into Texas over the next two weeks :roll:
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Re: Texas Spring 2018

#180 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:59 pm

Multiple chances for storms across DFW this weekend, coverage looks to be highest in the NE portions but we all know how models struggle with convection placement and timing;

Image

Image

SPC is most interested in Sunday:

Image
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