STORM2K

Yeah I am right there. Going back up now btw.

If that sucker wasn't hanging out just behind the outflow boundary, I'd already be most of the way there probably.

No storms here, just ended up with some steady rain.

It looks like the airport picked up 1/4" of rain but might pick up some more with some new storms firing.

I picked up almost a half inch of rain from a cell that came through around 7:30pm. Very nice!

No severe but a half-inch here.

nice soaking rain and no severe weather... can't beat that

5% tornado centered on the metroplex again for tomorrow... looks like the focus will be more north than today

An increase in low-level hodograph curvature by
late afternoon to the evening suggests a tornado threat will be
possible as storms that form in North TX

Tornado



That is an ugly Hail hatched area, no thanks!

Looks about the same risk as yesterday only centered in northeast areas.

DFW picked up a little more than half inch so far.

Ntxw wrote:Looks about the same risk as yesterday only centered in northeast areas.

DFW picked up a little more than half inch so far.

How do the prospects of wet weather look? I am seeing a clear wet signal ? How about you guys ?

Hi-res models appear to have some possible supercells around DFW late this afternoon and early evening

Brent wrote:Hi-res models appear to have some possible supercells around DFW late this afternoon and early evening

HRRR appears to track a couple of cells across the area but the 12z 3k NAM shows basically nothing.

SPC picked a weird day to be ~30 minutes late with the Convective Outlook.

SPC update:

But given some hindered heating through early afternoon and the
early timing of the aforementioned southern-stream impulse, the
likelihood and extent of deep convective development later today
remains questionable, particularly given that areas such as
north-central Texas may be influenced by subsidence aloft during
peak heating. Accordingly, the overall scenario seemingly remains
largely conditional, with the notion that any sustained
surface-rooted development could evolve into supercells capable of
very large hail and some tornado risk in the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and favorable hodographs
for large diameter (potentially significant 2+ inch) hail.

HRRR has been very consistent this morning showing multiple cells tracking across N. Texas. However, I'm not seeing much support for this scenario from the other CAMs.

12z Texas Tech is also a no go for storms across N. Texas today. As far as large scale, the Euro doesn't really produce anything across N. Texas. It looks like this will most likely just be a muggy afternoon for the area.

ETA: Clouds are starting to thin across N. Texas and the dryline is still well to our west. Might not be out of the woods after all, it looks like the potential is there for some very nasty hail with any cells that do fire.

bubba hotep wrote:12z Texas Tech is also a no go for storms across N. Texas today. As far as large scale, the Euro doesn't really produce anything across N. Texas. It looks like this will most likely just be a muggy afternoon for the area.

ETA: Clouds are starting to thin across N. Texas and the dryline is still well to our west. Might not be out of the woods after all, it looks like the potential is there for some very nasty hail with any cells that do fire.

The HRRR and RGEM are showing the storms, but without the support of the NAM and now the WRF suite as well (storms depicted on 0z, but not 12z), chances seem less than 50-50 that this event will play out. Really seems like an all-or-none type of event today.

cheezyWXguy wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:12z Texas Tech is also a no go for storms across N. Texas today. As far as large scale, the Euro doesn't really produce anything across N. Texas. It looks like this will most likely just be a muggy afternoon for the area.

ETA: Clouds are starting to thin across N. Texas and the dryline is still well to our west. Might not be out of the woods after all, it looks like the potential is there for some very nasty hail with any cells that do fire.

The HRRR and RGEM are showing the storms, but without the support of the NAM and now the WRF suite as well (storms depicted on 0z, but not 12z), chances seem less than 50-50 that this event will play out. Really seems like an all-or-none type of event today.

The NCAR ensembles really helped with days like this over the last couple of years but they stopped running them.