Texas Spring 2018

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1200
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Petrolia, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#261 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:48 am

It just doesn't want to warm up this morning. Made it down to 34 last night. Brisk NW wind today with it still only in the 40s. Ill take it while I can.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1063
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#262 Postby Haris » Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:20 pm

GFS back on board giving ATX 4.3” of rain over the next 7-10 days
3 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3443
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#263 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:27 pm

Looking interesting in the rainfall outlook!

6-10 Day Outlook
Image

8-14 Day Outlook
Image
3 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3443
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#264 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:09 pm

Encouraging EWX discussion.
:lightning: :rain:


000
FXUS64 KEWX 201958
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
258 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

No weather headlines through Wednesday as slightly cooler then
normal low temperatures occur with near normal afternoon highs and
dry, clear conditions.

Northwest mid-level flow overtop a strengthening surface high
pressure system will allow for tranquil conditions across much of
Texas next several days. Humidity has fallen again into the 20 and 30
percentiles this afternoon but winds are quite light due to the weak
pressure gradient. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
are ongoing across the far west Rio Grande Plains but conditions are
vastly improved from yesterday.

Expect the coolest morning of the week Wednesday as dry air and light
winds with clear sky allows for good radiational cooling.
Temperatures will rebound into the 70s and some spot low 80s in the
southwest tomorrow afternoon under the full early Spring insolation
as south winds return.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Confidence in an active and wet pattern continues to increase for
early next week that could persist into mid to late next week. A few
rounds of strong thunderstorms and pockets of heavy rainfall hazards
will need to be monitored for as we get closer to this time period.
Before then, above normal temperatures and dry conditions persist
through late week with only small chance of lighter and limited rain
coverage over the weekend.

Moisture and temperatures will be on the increase by late week as
south to southeast low-level wind fetch develops. A trough across the
west coast and departing eastern low-level ridge will allow for
PWATs to climb into the 1.1-1.3" range. Lows each morning will
increase by 5-8F degrees with lows Friday and Saturday only falling
into the low to mid 60s. Highs into the weekend will be above normal
in the 80s. Low clouds and patchy fog could return Saturday with mist
that morning along with isolated afternoon showers trapped
underneath a strong capping inversion. Due to the inversion strength,
have opted to place shower wording in official forecast vs.
thunderstorm wording at this time.

By late weekend and into early next week, a series of lower latitude
shortwave troughs pivoting across Mexico and the southern four-
corners region will interact with the increased available moisture.
In addition, a frontal boundary may be near the vicinity of south-
central Texas early next week. All combined, with the upper level
lift support and surface frontogenesis forcing possibilities,
multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms appear possible per
this pattern set-up. Mid and long-range global models suggest that
2-5 inches could occur next week over the course of several days as
PWATs increase further to near 1.5". Stay tuned through the late week
and weekend on this developing pattern that could help provide some
relief to the current drought conditions
3 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 33967
Age: 31
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#265 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:23 pm

12z Euro has a band of over 6 inches of rain near DFW next week :rain:
1 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2572
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#266 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:00 pm

The Euro seems locked in like at the end of February. The lakes in N & E Texas are mostly at full pool or above. The risk of significant flooding seems to be lurking.
1 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 33967
Age: 31
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#267 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:21 pm

bubba hotep wrote:The Euro seems locked in like at the end of February. The lakes in N & E Texas are mostly at full pool or above. The risk of significant flooding seems to be lurking.


I agree if the Pacific does get involved which seems like the idea it could be a lot like the end of February was. Multiple rounds of heavy rain. Hard to ignore how consistent the idea has been for several runs now
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2572
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#268 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:46 pm

3 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 33967
Age: 31
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#269 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:40 pm

0z GFS freaky close to the Euro around 6 inches of rain in Dallas, more than that to the east... a foot near Texarkana

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1654
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#270 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:21 am

Brent wrote:0z GFS freaky close to the Euro around 6 inches of rain in Dallas, more than that to the east... a foot near Texarkana

Image


That needs to shift or expand south and west. That’s just about the same area of the state that got hammered in late February. The 12z earlier had me getting 6” and now maybe 1.5” here in SE TX.
2 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1063
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#271 Postby Haris » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:37 am

I am seriously going to kill myself LOL if the 0z gfs solution verifies. 1" in atx and others N get 6"! WE NEED the rain. NTX is fine! Bring it to central tx :)
2 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1654
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#272 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:56 am

Haris wrote:I am seriously going to kill myself LOL if the 0z gfs solution verifies. 1" in atx and others N get 6"! WE NEED the rain. NTX is fine! Bring it to central tx :)


Totally agree with you 100%. The rich get richer so it seems lol
2 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 33967
Age: 31
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#273 Postby Brent » Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:18 am

Haris wrote:I am seriously going to kill myself LOL if the 0z gfs solution verifies. 1" in atx and others N get 6"! WE NEED the rain. NTX is fine! Bring it to central tx :)


:roflmao:

Though I agree Dallas doesn't need THAT much rain again
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3724
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: Eastern Dallas County, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#274 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:49 am

What day does the rainfall appear to be arriving? I'm trying to write a schedule for next week and rainfall can double my business... Would be nice to get prepared ahead of time.
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be used as such. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

Click here to join us in Storm2k.org's official (and operational!) chatroom!

Rules for the Storm2k.org chatroom

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18817
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#275 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:35 am

somethingfunny wrote:What day does the rainfall appear to be arriving? I'm trying to write a schedule for next week and rainfall can double my business... Would be nice to get prepared ahead of time.


Next Tue, Wed, and Thu.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17180
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#276 Postby Ntxw » Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:43 am

wxman57 wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:What day does the rainfall appear to be arriving? I'm trying to write a schedule for next week and rainfall can double my business... Would be nice to get prepared ahead of time.


Next Tue, Wed, and Thu.


Rain chances everyday from Sun-Thurs. Heaviest period likely during days wxman57 listed above.

We have now strung together several days of -SOI, today being another. The Pacific help is real. WWB is only going to amp up the linkage. Flooding is a real probability in various areas of the state. Most prone is the north/northeast Texas given the rainfall already in Feb.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17180
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#277 Postby Ntxw » Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:53 am

The one difference from Feb is we will have to watch for localized severe weather especially early in the period given it is now late March. 2015 was the most active tornado year in NTX yet you wouldn't be able to name a major outbreak for the area.
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2572
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#278 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Mar 21, 2018 8:09 am

Ntxw wrote:The one difference from Feb is we will have to watch for localized severe weather especially early in the period given it is now late March. 2015 was the most active tornado year in NTX yet you wouldn't be able to name a major outbreak for the area.


From Dr. V this morning:

Image
1 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
hriverajr
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 724
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:16 am

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#279 Postby hriverajr » Wed Mar 21, 2018 8:24 am

Wxman57
Its already gotten hot here pft. :)
1 likes   

aggiecutter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1621
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
Location: Texarkana

Re: Texas Spring 2018

#280 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Mar 21, 2018 8:49 am

Brent wrote:0z GFS freaky close to the Euro around 6 inches of rain in Dallas, more than that to the east... a foot near Texarkana

Image


We are already 9"+ for the year. We received 14.25" over a five day period a couple weeks ago.
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests