STORM2K

It just doesn't want to warm up this morning. Made it down to 34 last night. Brisk NW wind today with it still only in the 40s. Ill take it while I can.

GFS back on board giving ATX 4.3” of rain over the next 7-10 days

Looking interesting in the rainfall outlook!

6-10 Day Outlook


8-14 Day Outlook

Encouraging EWX discussion.



000
FXUS64 KEWX 201958
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
258 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

No weather headlines through Wednesday as slightly cooler then
normal low temperatures occur with near normal afternoon highs and
dry, clear conditions.

Northwest mid-level flow overtop a strengthening surface high
pressure system will allow for tranquil conditions across much of
Texas next several days. Humidity has fallen again into the 20 and 30
percentiles this afternoon but winds are quite light due to the weak
pressure gradient. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
are ongoing across the far west Rio Grande Plains but conditions are
vastly improved from yesterday.

Expect the coolest morning of the week Wednesday as dry air and light
winds with clear sky allows for good radiational cooling.
Temperatures will rebound into the 70s and some spot low 80s in the
southwest tomorrow afternoon under the full early Spring insolation
as south winds return.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Confidence in an active and wet pattern continues to increase for
early next week that could persist into mid to late next week. A few
rounds of strong thunderstorms and pockets of heavy rainfall hazards
will need to be monitored for as we get closer to this time period.
Before then, above normal temperatures and dry conditions persist
through late week with only small chance of lighter and limited rain
coverage over the weekend.

Moisture and temperatures will be on the increase by late week as
south to southeast low-level wind fetch develops. A trough across the
west coast and departing eastern low-level ridge will allow for
PWATs to climb into the 1.1-1.3" range. Lows each morning will
increase by 5-8F degrees with lows Friday and Saturday only falling
into the low to mid 60s. Highs into the weekend will be above normal
in the 80s. Low clouds and patchy fog could return Saturday with mist
that morning along with isolated afternoon showers trapped
underneath a strong capping inversion. Due to the inversion strength,
have opted to place shower wording in official forecast vs.
thunderstorm wording at this time.

By late weekend and into early next week, a series of lower latitude
shortwave troughs pivoting across Mexico and the southern four-
corners region will interact with the increased available moisture.
In addition, a frontal boundary may be near the vicinity of south-
central Texas early next week. All combined, with the upper level
lift support and surface frontogenesis forcing possibilities,
multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms appear possible per
this pattern set-up. Mid and long-range global models suggest that
2-5 inches could occur next week over the course of several days as
PWATs increase further to near 1.5". Stay tuned through the late week
and weekend on this developing pattern that could help provide some
relief to the current drought conditions

12z Euro has a band of over 6 inches of rain near DFW next week

The Euro seems locked in like at the end of February. The lakes in N & E Texas are mostly at full pool or above. The risk of significant flooding seems to be lurking.

bubba hotep wrote:The Euro seems locked in like at the end of February. The lakes in N & E Texas are mostly at full pool or above. The risk of significant flooding seems to be lurking.

I agree if the Pacific does get involved which seems like the idea it could be a lot like the end of February was. Multiple rounds of heavy rain. Hard to ignore how consistent the idea has been for several runs now

I love this GIF


 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/976286926167683072

0z GFS freaky close to the Euro around 6 inches of rain in Dallas, more than that to the east... a foot near Texarkana

Brent wrote:0z GFS freaky close to the Euro around 6 inches of rain in Dallas, more than that to the east... a foot near Texarkana

That needs to shift or expand south and west. That’s just about the same area of the state that got hammered in late February. The 12z earlier had me getting 6” and now maybe 1.5” here in SE TX.

I am seriously going to kill myself LOL if the 0z gfs solution verifies. 1" in atx and others N get 6"! WE NEED the rain. NTX is fine! Bring it to central tx

Haris wrote:I am seriously going to kill myself LOL if the 0z gfs solution verifies. 1" in atx and others N get 6"! WE NEED the rain. NTX is fine! Bring it to central tx

Totally agree with you 100%. The rich get richer so it seems lol

Haris wrote:I am seriously going to kill myself LOL if the 0z gfs solution verifies. 1" in atx and others N get 6"! WE NEED the rain. NTX is fine! Bring it to central tx

Though I agree Dallas doesn't need THAT much rain again

What day does the rainfall appear to be arriving? I'm trying to write a schedule for next week and rainfall can double my business... Would be nice to get prepared ahead of time.

somethingfunny wrote:What day does the rainfall appear to be arriving? I'm trying to write a schedule for next week and rainfall can double my business... Would be nice to get prepared ahead of time.

Next Tue, Wed, and Thu.

wxman57 wrote:

somethingfunny wrote:What day does the rainfall appear to be arriving? I'm trying to write a schedule for next week and rainfall can double my business... Would be nice to get prepared ahead of time.

Next Tue, Wed, and Thu.

Rain chances everyday from Sun-Thurs. Heaviest period likely during days wxman57 listed above.

We have now strung together several days of -SOI, today being another. The Pacific help is real. WWB is only going to amp up the linkage. Flooding is a real probability in various areas of the state. Most prone is the north/northeast Texas given the rainfall already in Feb.

The one difference from Feb is we will have to watch for localized severe weather especially early in the period given it is now late March. 2015 was the most active tornado year in NTX yet you wouldn't be able to name a major outbreak for the area.

Ntxw wrote:The one difference from Feb is we will have to watch for localized severe weather especially early in the period given it is now late March. 2015 was the most active tornado year in NTX yet you wouldn't be able to name a major outbreak for the area.

From Dr. V this morning:

Wxman57
Its already gotten hot here pft.

Brent wrote:0z GFS freaky close to the Euro around 6 inches of rain in Dallas, more than that to the east... a foot near Texarkana

We are already 9"+ for the year. We received 14.25" over a five day period a couple weeks ago.