STORM2K

Euro Ensemble is showing a large trough returning to the western U.S. in about 2 weeks. Hopefully that leads to a wet weather pattern across a large part of the state for the second half of the month.

That system in about 8-10 days (that bubba posted about above) also could bring some decent rain chances to parts of the state.

That system in 7-10 days has me intrigued for a number of reasons. Maybe a small shot at 1962 redux?

SOI is running positive since Feb 22nd with some lag effects accounting for the dry period here and to come. The second half of the month we may see more negative values, but not a given yet.

Ralph's Weather wrote:This is the 4 year anniversary of a major sleet thunderstorm which dropped a couple inches of sleet in a two hour period along with lots of wind and lightning. I was living north of Lindale at the time. We had sleet drifts over 6 inches deep and lake effect snow the next morning with temps in the teens.

I saw you share this on your facebook page and I just came to the realization sometimes the world isn't that big after all, even here in Texas. I am pretty sure I work with your wife in Palestine lol

Also, what a drastically different start to March compared to four years ago!

Spring is here ! The dreaded crickets are singing their song!

EnnisTx wrote:Spring is here ! The dreaded crickets are singing their song!

And the mockingbirds, which sing almost constantly day and night.

The 0z GFS brings the first 90s in 4 short months I've seen on the DFW meteogram

Next Saturday GFS/Euro both into the 80s(short-lived though)

Looks like 2 freezes in the mid 20s are on deck for this next week up here.

In large part, compared to past two years the trees are not budding out as much. Frost threats this week and freezes outside the urban cores

There are no imminent signal for early spring heat waves yet.

SOI positive again and has been since Feb 22nd..with the lag we are probably entering a rather dry period. Doesn't mean no rain or storms but the Pacific linkage will wane for a time. Large scale multi inch rains coverage seems like a low risk first half of the month.

I agree with the 1st half of the month being drier with the pattern shifting somewhat towards the early winter pattern. There are a number of systems coming down from the NW and it would only take one digging a bit more than currently modeled to pull some decent rain back towards I35. Also, that means that we will probably see the colder surface air bleed farther back west than currently modeled, so maybe a freeze or two at DFW. After that things could get active again with the Euro dropping a big system in the NW with a plume of deep moisture originating out in the Pacific south of Hawaii. That could be our next big rain event, depending on how things go.

Ntxw wrote:In large part, compared to past two years the trees are not budding out as much. Frost threats this week and freezes outside the urban cores

There are no imminent signal for early spring heat waves yet.

Up here none of the mesquites or pecan trees have even tried putting on leaf buds yet. Also, none of my livestock have even started losing winter coats yet. All of the coyotes I’ve come across within the week is still sporting a strong winter coat with no signs of shedding it yet.

We are definitely in a quiet period. As I expected our area of Texas is on the very back edge with these Pacific fronts only bringing glancing thin lines or the lines build east of I-35. This next front is no exception. I guess the good news for many (though not for myself) is this year's SXSW and Rodeo will have pleasant weather for the most part. Of course pleasant weather in my eyes is rain and storms. Maybe the last half of my favorite month of the year will be more accomodating.

ravyrn wrote:

Ralph's Weather wrote:This is the 4 year anniversary of a major sleet thunderstorm which dropped a couple inches of sleet in a two hour period along with lots of wind and lightning. I was living north of Lindale at the time. We had sleet drifts over 6 inches deep and lake effect snow the next morning with temps in the teens.

I saw you share this on your facebook page and I just came to the realization sometimes the world isn't that big after all, even here in Texas. I am pretty sure I work with your wife in Palestine lol

Also, what a drastically different start to March compared to four years ago!

Awesome

Both the Euro EPS and GEFS are showing a return of the Western Trough in the long range and are now both starting to show individual members with big rain events as we move into the 2nd half of March (DFW speaking). Enjoy the next 7 - 10 days of coolish spring wx because it looks like a return to wet weather is just around the corner. Also, remember that as we move into the wetter spring months that it takes more to build positive anomalies and that even avg is pretty wet.

Well at least I got the backyard mowed Saturday, Sunday was pretty much rain free, only had a drop or 2 fall in southern Tarrant Co.

Cold front is through DFW and that should make for an awesome afternoon/evening as drier air finally filters in.

bubba hotep wrote:Cold front is through DFW and that should make for an awesome afternoon/evening as drier air finally filters in.

Really brisk out there and you can definitely feel the change

3 yrs ago today...

Mid to upper 70s around here but the front and associated storms are on my doorstep. I am looking forwards to a few cooler days and some frosty mornings. Maybe we can sneak in a freeze this week.

bubba hotep wrote:3 yrs ago today...

Last time Dallas saw more than a dusting. My first winter here and I had unrealistic expectations after that