STORM2K

Mesoscale Discussion 0108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CST Mon Mar 05 2018

Areas affected...CENTRAL AND EAST TX INTO LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051731Z - 052000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is likely to develop across parts
of central and east Texas eastward into Louisiana. Hail and strong
wind gusts will be the primary threat. Weather watch issuance
appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
through the Arklatex extending southwestward into northeast and
central Texas. Convection is developing along the front. Surface
winds ahead of the front are veered to the southwest with dewpoints
in the mid 60s F. This is contributing to a pocket of moderate
instability with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
range according to the RAP. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport
shows some veering of the winds with height with 0-6 km shear
estimated near 40 kt. Although deep-layer shear likely weakens with
southwestward extend along the front, the shear environment should
be enough to support a marginal severe threat this afternoon. Hail
will be possible with the stronger updrafts. A few strong wind gusts
will be possible as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen over
the next few hours.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0108.html

Got a quick quarter inch with rain still falling here.

81ºF here right now. What an amazing day to have the windows open!

1900hurricane wrote:81ºF here right now. What an amazing day to have the windows open!

The cold front should be knocking on your door right now. Looks like it's approaching Bryan. Temps drop about 10 degrees behind the front. There's also a narrow band of storms just north of Bryan along the leading edge of the front.

It will have been disappointing that yet another severe -NAO does not deliver much to Texas. It only fortifies my stance that the -NAO is not a great indicator for cold/snow in Texas as much as the -EPO. It's hard when you get Siberian air pedaling backwards through Europe, North Atlantic to finally reach North America (east to west flow). So much moderation. The easier path is from Siberia through the Arctic/Alaska and into Canada/US. No Ocean to modify. This is one of the most severe -NAO episodes for the time of year (close to 1962). The -NAO I think works if it's a block that originates from the Pacific side that hops over the top into the NAO region vs one that retrogrades from the other side of the pond for our region.

With that rant, chilly mornings the next couple of days. I agree with Bubba's post above 500mb pattern will shift the second half of March into big trough in the west with lower pressures in the tropical Pacific. Linkage may yield a rather wet multi-inch rain pattern possible.

To help solidify a more active (rainy potential) second half of the month, hovmollers shows westerly winds (WWB) jump-starting again west of the dateline. Two fronts here, of course one is the link to the rainfall patterns when WWBs progress near and past the dateline is important. The other being the next WWB if true in fruition may help push the very large warm pool collecting below the surface from the past WWB towards El Nino.

wxman57 wrote:

1900hurricane wrote:81ºF here right now. What an amazing day to have the windows open!

The cold front should be knocking on your door right now. Looks like it's approaching Bryan. Temps drop about 10 degrees behind the front. There's also a narrow band of storms just north of Bryan along the leading edge of the front.

Yep, can verify that the front has just now arrived here. That narrow band of storms just behind the front looks like it's trying to backbuild a little bit, so hopefully I can pick up a little rain, even if it's only a tenth of an inch or less. Unlike quite a few people, February finished about an inch below the normal monthly rainfall at CLL.

Not a drop here that I saw. I'm back in Austin now. Possibly a sprinkle or three(?). Got windy.

Look out in Fayette County - mean looking cell headed that way.

I watched the early stages of storm formation as the front was moving through Austin. Saw the clouds begin to tower up but no rain here at the Rain Cave. A storm associated with the clouds that I watched initiated south of ABIA. Another storm popped up just south of there and is now severe over southern Bastrop County.

The models are kind of giving up on the MJO but the constructed analogs favor a more progressive evolution into 4/5/6. That would also favor a wetter 2nd half of March for most of Texas.

A chilly morning indeed at the homestead, it was 37 with a heavy frost on rooftops and cars. felt good to put the trusty leather coat on for work this morning.

33 here this morning. A few spots in E TX managed a freeze.

A cool upper 50s across Houston this morning. Low 70s now. Pretty dry - 25 dewpoint. Measured .42" of rain before midnight. Might have received more since midnight but I didn't check yet. I don't see any really cold air here for the next couple of weeks. Nothing really warm, either. Fairly seasonal. Maybe a bit more above-normal than normal, particularly for the lows.

00z 3k NAM gets DFW down to 35F. Maybe we can sneak in a freeze with a bit of a low bust?

Looks like a rather strong early March cold front arrives Sunday leading to well below normal temperatures across our Region. Spring Breakers may find chilly weather across the Coastal Beaches next week.

Made it down to 28-29 this morning. Feel nice with as warm as the lows have been lately.

At this point getting excited about freezes is a little silly, trees are starting to bloom as well as some of the flowers. we've all had our share of cold this winter, no need to be excited about setting the trees and plants back now.

EnnisTx wrote:At this point getting excited about freezes is a little silly, trees are starting to bloom as well as some of the flowers. we've all had our share of cold this winter, no need to be excited about setting the trees and plants back now.

Not up this way yet, but as with every other year, I'm sure they'll be ok..

Only got down to about 56 in southwest Houston this morning. GFS 2m temps from 06Z indicated a low near 46 at IAH, but the temperature bottomed-out at 54 there. Generally temps a bit below normal over the next 10 days. Not much precip. Maybe near 80 on Saturday.