STORM2K

April is running about -4F at DFW and apt to go lower after this weekend. Let's hope that spills into May.

The EWX talks about shortwaves moving through the upper level northwesterly flow mid-week next week. Do these disturbances within a northwest flow typically cause the development of storms in west Texas, that move through the state overnight as a squall line/MCS we sometimes get in the Spring/early Summer?

I've always liked MCSs. Don't know why. I just remember them growing up as a kid, being awakened in the middle of the night by lots of thunder and lightning and winds, which is one of the weather events that spurred my curiosity in weather. MCSs can cover such a large area of real estate, and put down an inch or so of rain easily.

667
FXUS64 KEWX 191923
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
223 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)... A weak upper level
shortwave will move into Texas tonight bringing a chance for
thunderstorms to the Rio Grande Plains after midnight. The feature
will move across to the east Friday and spread a slight chance for
thunderstorms as far east as Kerrville and Hondo. An upper level low
will move into the Southern Plains Friday night and bring a frontal
system across Texas. A warm front will move across our CWA from west
to east followed by a cold front Saturday. This system will bring
chances for thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday night with
the best chances during the afternoon Saturday over the eastern half
of the CWA. Models have continued to trend drier with this system
and rain amounts should be moderate. There is still a slight chance
that some storms could be strong to severe and produce large hail and
strong winds, but this is also looking less likely.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)...
Starting Sunday an upper level ridge will build over the Southern
Plains. This will bring dry weather and warming temperatures through
Tuesday. A series of shortwaves will move through the upper level
northwesterly flow during the middle of the week producing slight to
low end chance POPs. The strongest of these will be Thursday and rain
chances will spread across most of the CWA.

Wishcasting?

weatherdude1108 wrote:Wishcasting?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_52.png

The EURO EPS also supports that kind of solution. The models are in pretty good agreement that another big cutoff will roll out of the SW towards the end of the month.

It’s been a while since I’ve seen 100% chance of rain on the forecast.

Progressively dry persistence forecast, but at least the temps will be cooler than normal to offset the evaporation somewhat.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
249 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
A cloudy day continues for most of South-Central Texas with cool
conditions and winds out of the east. Temperatures are currently in
the 60s for much of the area which is well below normal for this time
of the year. Still continuing to see some light radar returns across
the southern half of the CWA this afternoon, but these are being
measured around 15 kft and drier air below that is likely evaporating
much if not all of the precip before it reaches the ground. Think
most of the evening and early portion of the tonight forecast will
remain dry outside of some possible sprinkles.

A large upper level low will continue to push east into the Central
Plains which will bring most of the deep forcing for ascent well
north of our area. High-res models show some possible shower activity
underneath a weak capping inversion for late tonight and into
tomorrow morning. By the late morning hours a dryline will be moving
through our western counties and we could see a bit higher coverage
of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. By
mid-day the dryline is expected to be just west of the Highway 281
corridor and the best chances for thunderstorms will be east of this
area. Forecast soundings show about 750-1000 K/kg of CAPE with ample
shear and with these parameters could not rule out a strong to
marginally severe storm, especially in our northern counties in
the closest proximity to the upper low. The activity is expected to
shift east in the evening hours and there remains the possibility of
a broken line of showers and thunderstorms along the associated cold
front Saturday night. Highs tomorrow will top out in the middle 70s
east of the dryline and up into the middle 80s west of the dryline.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Sunday will be quite nice across the area with mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Northerly flow will
continue into Monday keeping temperatures persistent for the start of
the work week. A progressive pattern is shaping up with the GFS and
ECMWF both showing a cold front arriving for Wednesday. The ECMWF
is much wetter than the GFS, but with the way these things have been
going with higher PoPs in the extended and lowering as we get
time progresses, will cap PoPs at 20 percent. Another front is
possible on Friday and this should be a dry front. With the passages
of a few fronts over the next 7 days, temperatures will remain in the
70s and 80s with lows primarily in the 50s. This should be at or just
below normal for this time of year.

I'm in Lancaster for there weekend. We'll see what happens here.

Another coolish day for April on tap. DFW is now running -4.2F below normal for the month with several more below normal days on tap about a week or so more to go. It has been a long, long time since a month has been significantly (my personal metric is 3F or more as significant deviation) departure from normal.

I’m in Blanco TX today, fine mists and heavy condensation, with some occasional rain drizzles, and a cool temperature of 59°. Feels great!

Ntxw wrote:Another coolish day for April on tap. DFW is now running -4.2F below normal for the month with several more below normal days on tap about a week or so more to go. It has been a long, long time since a month has been significantly (my personal metric is 3F or more as significant deviation) departure from normal.

Oh no..... Global Cooling!

Ntxw wrote:Another coolish day for April on tap. DFW is now running -4.2F below normal for the month with several more below normal days on tap about a week or so more to go. It has been a long, long time since a month has been significantly (my personal metric is 3F or more as significant deviation) departure from normal.

No forecast highs above 80 at DFW through next Friday. I think April is locked in.

HRRR is showing a 2nd round of storms moving into DFW around 00z, those would pose some minimal svr wx threat.

I decided to save up all of this spring's heat for next Fall/Winter.

wxman57 wrote:I decided to save up all of this spring's heat for next Fall/Winter.

wxman57 wrote:I decided to save up all of this spring's heat for next Fall/Winter.

I think we need a Temperature Appropriation Committee headed by Portastorm, Ntwx, and Brent to fight this injustice. At least a compromise giving you a blazing month of scorching heat, from July 15 to August 15 only to leave Fall/Winter alone.

wxman57 wrote:I decided to save up all of this spring's heat for next Fall/Winter.

I smell a troll

bubba hotep wrote:HRRR is showing a 2nd round of storms moving into DFW around 00z, those would pose some minimal svr wx threat.

SPC with an upgrade for DFW, looks like it is mainly for hail. These morning storms could leave behind some boundaries but the low level flow and minimal CAPE should keep the tornado threat low.

Possibility of a wet pattern beginning toward the end of the month and first part of May. Probably will bring severe weather with it too, but not sure about that part. I’m just assuming that because of the time of the year. Anyone care to share their thoughts and elaborate on this? I’d love to hear more about this potential.

Most of the decent soaking rain today has been east of the 35 corridor. Pretty dissatisfied with the forecast, hopefully another chance of measurable rainfall this evening.

Some decent looking storms look to be on a direct path towards Fort Worth