SPC Enhanced Risk, 2/24, TX/AR/MS/MO/TN/KY

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SPC Enhanced Risk, 2/24, TX/AR/MS/MO/TN/KY

#1 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:44 pm

SPC AC 231728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTS TO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the southern
Plains Saturday morning and shift northeastward towards the Ohio
Valley through Saturday night. Several of these storms will likely
be severe, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being the primary
threat. A few instances of large hail will be possible as well.

...Synopsis...
Within a cyclonic-flow regime across the western US, a robust
shortwave trough will eject northeast across the central Plains,
while acquiring a negative tilt as it approaches the upper Midwest.
In response, mid-level heights will fall over much of the Plains and
Mississippi Valley through the day. The surface pattern will feature
a deepening low lifting north from the Mississippi Valley towards
the upper Great Lakes. Trailing to its south, a cold front will
accelerate eastward towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, while
the preceding warm sector advances northward from the Mid-South to
portions of southern Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

...Arklatex to the Ohio Valley...
As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues northeast towards
the upper Midwest, a strong low-level jet is forecast to organize
across the Arklatex through the mid-day hours, before strengthening
and translating northeast towards the Ohio Valley through the
overnight hours. In conjunction with this evolution, the surface
warm sector (characterized by dew points in the lower/mid 60s along
its northern fringes) will stream northward, reaching areas from
southeastern Missouri to southern Indiana through the period. South
of the warm front, despite little/modest low-level heating and
related buoyancy, favorably moist low levels should support upwards
of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across parts of the Mid-South by afternoon,
with values decreasing to 200-400 J/kg across the Ohio Valley.

Countering these lower values of buoyancy, a strong kinematic
profile will evolve across much of the region, especially from
northern Arkansas to the lower Ohio Valley. Within this region,
925-850mb flow around 60-70 kt will contribute to sizable values of
storm-relative helicity through the evening hours. In turn, as a
narrow band of convection organizes from the Arklatex to the Ozarks
through the day, shear profiles should encourage several bowing/LEWP
structures, with embedded supercells possible. Furthermore, forecast
soundings and high-res guidance depict a considerable component of
low-level shear perpendicular to several bowing segments, enhancing
the potential for tornadoes -- a few of which could be strong --
during the afternoon and evening hours. These cells will then race
towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the evening and
overnight. Moist adiabatic low-level profiles, while not conducive
for high values of buoyancy, may still prove favorable for a few
swaths of damaging winds (with an attendant line-embedded tornado
threat), as any low-level rotating elements will enhance upward
vertical motion and convective intensity.

Outside of the main band of convection, although forcing for ascent
will not be particularly strong earlier in the day, an isolated
discrete supercell or two may form across the Mid-South within
warm/moist low-level confluence Saturday afternoon. Favorable
storm-relative helicity and effective shear would support a
conditional damaging wind and tornado threat during this time frame
as well.

..Picca.. 02/23/2018




Frack, Frack, Doubldy Frack and Feldergarb!!!
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Re: SPC Enhanced Risk, 2/24, TX/AR/MS/MO/TN/KY

#2 Postby RL3AO » Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:29 pm

And of course what usually happens is the most widespread threat gets overlooked.

Image
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Re: SPC Enhanced Risk, 2/24, TX/AR/MS/MO/TN/KY

#3 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:17 pm

980
WWUS54 KOHX 250313
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
913 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

TNC125-147-250330-
/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180225T0330Z/
Montgomery TN-Robertson TN-
913 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN ROBERTSON COUNTIES...

At 911 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Guthrie, or 10 miles northeast of Clarksville, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Montgomery and northwestern Robertson Counties,
including the following locations: Cedar Hill and Adams.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3644 8721 3664 8732 3665 8697 3650 8696
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 237DEG 47KT 3665 8720

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: SPC Enhanced Risk, 2/24, TX/AR/MS/MO/TN/KY

#4 Postby tolakram » Sun Feb 25, 2018 8:15 am

We has a single clap of thunder all night. A lot of rain, fortunately no severe.
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