MODERATE RISK - TX-OK-KS-MO - May, 2nd

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Bunkertor
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MODERATE RISK - TX-OK-KS-MO - May, 2nd

#1 Postby Bunkertor » Wed May 02, 2018 2:23 pm

SPC AC 021630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST
OK...SOUTHERN TO NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and
central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon
into tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, large to very large hail,
and several tornadoes are anticipated, especially from
western/central Oklahoma across southern to eastern KS and northern
to central MO.

...Synopsis...
A complex overall forecast with significant severe potential for all
hazards evident across a large swath of the central/southern Great
Plains this afternoon and evening. As such, have expanded Enhanced
and Moderate risks with this update.

...KS/MO...
The surface front is stalling from southwest KS to southern IA. A
lead mid-upper speed max will eject northeast from NM/far west TX to
central KS by this evening. This speed max will interact with the
front and warm sector starting by early afternoon in southwest KS,
where convective initiation is expected. Surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s, beneath mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km,
will combine with daytime heating to support MLCAPE of 2500-3500
J/kg along and south of the stalled front. Effective bulk shear
around 50 kt will be sufficient for supercells, though low-level
shear/hodograph curvature will not be particularly large for most of
the afternoon. The expectation is for initial supercells with very
large hail to grow upscale into clusters and potentially bowing
segments through the afternoon and evening while surging northeast
along the front, with an increasing threat for widespread damaging
winds by late afternoon, persisting into the evening across MO. The
tornado threat is uncertain given the expected messy convective
modes and relatively weak low-level shear through most of the
afternoon. However, towards 00Z, increasing low-level shear in
conjunction with the strongly unstable air mass may support
semi-discrete tornadic supercells just ahead of/southeast of the
emerging clusters/bows, where a couple strong tornadoes are
possible.

...Western/central OK...
A strongly unstable warm sector is expected into western OK this
afternoon, with upper 60s surface dew points beneath very steep
mid-level lapse rates. The dryline will mix east of the thicker high
cloud band in west TX as surface temperatures warm into the mid 90s.
Convergence along the dryline should strengthen beneath the
mid-level speed max ejecting towards KS. This scenario should
support discrete supercell development at least as far south as the
Red River near the southwest OK/northwest TX border. MLCAPE of
3000-4000 J/kg and 50-60 kt effective shear will support at least
very large hail. Forecast wind profiles will have some weakness near
700 mb this afternoon, though low-level shear will increase and
become more favorable for tornadic supercells in the evening. The
main uncertainty is whether discrete storm mode will persist into
this time frame with most CAMs suggesting it will not. While this
volatile setup has some potential to yield long-track supercells
with a few strong tornadoes, will only expand but not upgrade
probabilities with this outlook.

...West to central and north TX...
Guidance appears to be trending faster with convection forming near
the Permian Basin this evening along the retreating portion of the
dryline. Very large hail will be the main initial threat with these
storms given a highly favorable CAPE/shear combination. Upscale
growth into clusters with both severe wind gusts and large hail will
be possible tonight, with this activity eventually weakening
overnight.

...Southern IA to northern/central IL...
Clusters of strong to severe storms will probably develop this
afternoon along the stalling to slow-moving cold front. While the
overall intensity/coverage is not anticipated to be as large as
farther southwest, all hazards appear possible with clusters/bows
and a few embedded supercells. The late evening/overnight portion of
the MO MCS may also affect parts of central IL with a wind threat as
well.

..Grams/Wendt/Marsh.. 05/02/2018
Last edited by Bunkertor on Wed May 02, 2018 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MODERATE RISK - Ohio Valley Areas - May, 2nd

#2 Postby Bunkertor » Wed May 02, 2018 2:24 pm

Early kick off :eek:

024
WFUS53 KDDC 021905
TORDDC
KSC047-057-097-021930-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0005.180502T1905Z-180502T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
205 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 205 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH
TORNADOES AND EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WERE LOCATED 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINDHORST, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
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Re: MODERATE RISK - TX-OK-KS-MO - May, 2nd

#3 Postby Bunkertor » Wed May 02, 2018 3:11 pm

Seems, there are discussions in the SPC. 20z is 10 minutes due
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