Texas Summer 2018

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ForexTidbits
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#381 Postby ForexTidbits » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:17 pm

Travis Herzog ABC 13

See full post in link below:
https://www.facebook.com/ABC13TravisHerzog/

9PM TUESDAY UPDATE:

The weather pattern is shifting tonight, and that impact is that we will likely be in the direct path of more rain tomorrow morning when you wake up.

First, my heart goes out to our friends in the Golden Triangle. They too were devastated by Harvey’s flood, and after 6-13” of rain these last two days from Beaumont to Bridge City, we got word today that some homes have again taken on water with numerous streets and summer schools closed now and tomorrow.

Meanwhile in Houston, you can see from this estimated rainfall map that we’ve picked up far less rain in the 1-3” range. The intense training storm band aimed at Beaumont today partially protected us from getting anything worse coming at us from the Gulf.

That rain band has now weakened, which has opened the door for new rain bands to form and blow intense downpours back toward the Texas coastline. It’s looking like we’ll have a wetter morning commute tomorrow in Houston than what we had today. I just hope the rain continues to come down at a manageable rate and we don’t get one of those intense rain bands aimed at us tomorrow. We will be in the direct path of very strong Gulf winds called a “low level jet,” and this will increase the odds that we get more rain than we have in days past.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#382 Postby ForexTidbits » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:31 pm

Flash flood event unfolding across metro Corpus Christi this evening with several high water rescues in progress from vehicles. Dangerous flash flooding will be possible as SE low level flow increases on eastern flank of mid level low focusing extended training of intense rains

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#383 Postby ForexTidbits » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:33 pm

Significant Flash flooding is possible and possible flash flood emergency is being discussed

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#384 Postby Nederlander » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:37 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I’m not impressed with this system so far. It’s been a dud for me. There’s just not much deep convection associated with it.

Depends on where you’re at bud. I’d be glad to send some your way. I had a five gallon bucket sitting outside and it was overflowing. Many homes in Port Arthur and surrounding areas are flooded again (not finished from Harvey).. sorry you’re not impressed
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#385 Postby jasons » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:38 pm

Lightning strikes now showing-up offshore SE of Corpus. This is going to get really bad for them.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#386 Postby ForexTidbits » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:47 pm

jasons wrote:Lightning strikes now showing-up offshore SE of Corpus. This is going to get really bad for them.


3-4 inches in an hour. :fishing:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#387 Postby ForexTidbits » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:51 pm

Several roads are flooded throughout the city and high water rescues are taking place. One report of motorists stranded on the roof of their vehicles.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#388 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:52 pm

Nederlander wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:I’m not impressed with this system so far. It’s been a dud for me. There’s just not much deep convection associated with it.

Depends on where you’re at bud. I’d be glad to send some your way. I had a five gallon bucket sitting outside and it was overflowing. Many homes in Port Arthur and surrounding areas are flooded again (not finished from Harvey).. sorry you’re not impressed

That area was never forecasted to see those totals. You guys were on the fringe of the heavier totals with a sharp gradient just to the west. Like I mentioned earlier there are two areas of heavier rain. One in your area and one towards Corpus and the WPC had the heavier totals around Matagorda which is pretty much exactly in between the two areas that are getting it now, so that’s why I’m calling it a bust so far. Just goes to show you once again that the models can get the amount of rain correct (or close to it), but they struggle with placement. Meanwhile, in my area (where the heaviest totals were forecasted) we’ve gotten about 2-3” so far. Nice rain, but I was expecting more. We’ve gotten 3” so far and there isn’t even any water in our ditches which goes to show you how dry it was around here. Hoping to get a couple more inches before it’s all done.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#389 Postby ForexTidbits » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:56 pm

20 Unit Streamflow values showing dangerous flash flooding on going in Corpus Christi.

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#390 Postby lrak » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:17 pm

It's been nothing like I've seen before. Tropical, sub-tropical what the hect is this thing? It almost looks like a tropical storm making landfall a few days back via visible satellite. Strange!

Corpus hasn't seen this much rain in a while especially the west side. We've always had to rely on morning showers and due to subsidence after the so called "warm front pushed through around 12pm" if no rain then no rain. Death ridge! ACK :cry:
Last edited by lrak on Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#391 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:19 pm

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#392 Postby lrak » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:25 pm

bubba hotep wrote:1-min scans setup for overnight Texas rain event.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-14-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

Image


Man I wish this was the weekend. That looks crazy.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#393 Postby lrak » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:29 pm

Big BOOM just now. Hope I can sleep :D
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#394 Postby jasons » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:56 pm

Irak, I hope you are OK down there buddy. It's no fun when it gets past the "of crap, my house could actually flood" part. Really thinking about my friends and relatives to the east and west of me tonight.

OK, regarding those of us in the Houston area,

That eastern band over the Gulf really saved us today. It's terrible for the Golden triangle area (and now Corpus but for other reasons), but it cutoff inflow and kept us in a dry moat of subsidence all day. There are really a few concerns to monitor overnight however:

* The convection out of over the Gulf is gone. It's wide open again for bands to form near the coast and move inland.

* The LLJ may get established over SE Texas tonight, setting-up a training band(s) beneath it.

* As the low/circulation has pivoted a bit to the W/SW today, it will change the orientation of the bands as they move onshore to stretch a little more SE to NW, instead of SSW to NNW. Basically, it will determine training patterns for any bands that setup. This small detail will become very important where any bands intersect the LLJ, as it will draw-out a lot of moisture in isolated locations, potentially like an open fire hydrant.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#395 Postby Steve » Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:21 am

Nice job by the ECMWF and NAM depicting a low centered over S TX kind of out of nowhere from a few days out. I checked it early today and the 1009 was at the surface. What I think might have happened was that the mid level energy drifted toward the NW Gulf while the surface trough formed a closed low once inland. Probably 6 or 7 different posts pointed out that it didn’t make sense. But there it is. Lots of rain threats still for coastal Texas throughout today. We will have to see if the low spins out, moves off W or SW or if the energy just goes south. Y’all be safe.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#396 Postby ForexTidbits » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:22 am

Travis Herzog ABC 13

See full post in link below:
https://www.facebook.com/ABC13TravisHerzog/

7AM WEDNESDAY UPDATE:

Today it's looking like our turn to get heavier rain than we've had all week. We've been the fortunate ones so far along the Texas Gulf coast. The large stationary band of rain that's been aimed at Beaumont the past two days helped shield us from all the flooding rains observed in the Golden Triangle and Corpus Christi.

That band is now gone, which means the Gulf is open for business today.

We're still in good shape as of this writing, but another Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 7PM for part of our region.

Everything I'm seeing today points toward numerous slow-moving, heavy storms possible for our region off-and-on thru Thursday morning. These will dump a quick 1-2" in most spots, but isolated regions could pick up 4-6". If those higher accumulations fall over any of our creeks or bayous, they'll fill up quickly with water like South Mayde Creek did yesterday when nearly 5" fell on the west side of Houston.

Again, if we can make it to Thursday afternoon with no major issues, then we can breathe a collective sigh of relief. That's when the drier air will arrive and push out the tropical moisture.

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#397 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:10 am

Poor Corpus ... looks like y'all are getting pounded again with heavy rain. Hope Irak and cctxhurricanewatcher are doing alright. Thinking of you guys.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#398 Postby lrak » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:24 am

Thanks everyone for the concern we seem to be handling most of it since it's been consistent "medium I guess" in the amount coming down which allows for decent run off into the creeks and ditches. I sure hope it continues that way.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#399 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:25 am

McAllen to Harlingen has been hit very hard in S Texas. Water rescues from homes underway in Weslaco which has been hit particularly hard.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#400 Postby lrak » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:26 am

Wow didn't know that and I should of kept my mouth shut because it is really coming down now.
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