Texas Summer 2018

[Ralph's Weather]

We are getting our first showers of this event. Was hoping that it would be an all week event but looks like we could see 1-3" today so I cannot complain. Maybe it will be enough to revive some of my yard, at least the Bermuda. I think most of my St Augustine is gone for good though. I hate my super sandy soil as it dries out so easily.

[bubba hotep]

New MPD out from WPC



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0625
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1038 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Areas affected...Central and North Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101437Z - 101907Z

Summary...Areas of rain with embedded clusters of thunderstorm may
persist into the early afternoon across parts of Central and North
Texas. Any thunderstorm clusters should move slowly, and could
therefore produce localized heavy rainfall and possibly some flash
flooding. Rain rates to around 2 in/hr will be possible.

Discussion...A complex mesoscale pattern is in place across Texas
this morning. Persistent convection late overnight has led to at
least one prominent MCV (near KMNZ at 14Z), and several weak cold
pools and mesoscale high pressures (near the Llano Uplift and the
southeast side of DFW metro area). GOES-16 water vapor imagery and
derived motion winds also implied a weak mid-upper level
circulation and vorticity maximum in West Texas. Convection was
back-building to the west and northwest, into moist 850-700mb
inflow as sampled by a variety of radar VWPs from KFWS, to KDYX,
to KSJT. This back-building was producing new convection in a
region of reduced deep layer mean wind speeds and Corfidi vectors.
Therefore, slow storm motions appear likely, in addition to some
chaotic storm motions given the complexity to the flow patterns at
multiple layers of the troposphere due to earlier convection. This
should provide a favorable environment for at least brief stalling
of convective clusters and storm mergers, which may enhance
locally heavy rainfall.

Hi-res models do not appear to have a great handle on the
situation. Many try to make the convective clusters too outflow
dominant, and appear to be too quick to dissipate convection.
While gradual diminishing of intensity and coverage of convection
is possible (given we are very near the typical diurnal convective
minimum), radar and satellite trends suggest some areas of
convection should be sustained for at least a couple more hours.
GOES-16 IR satellite shows two areas of cooling cloud tops, one
closer to San Angelo, and the other near the south side of the DFW
metro area. Given the density of cloud cover, it is also likely
that hi-res models and the RAP model are recovering instability
too quickly around 18Z in this region. Current analysis has MLCAPE
around 500 j/kg in much of the area, which should be enough to
sustain convection. However, the reflectivity profiles in
convective clusters may be weighted more toward the lower portion
of the storms (sub-melting layer), which could increase rainfall
efficiency given the high precipitable water values (near 2
inches).

The lack of a strong focusing mechanism may lead to meandering
storm clusters and more isolated flooding potential. However,
given the number of convective foci in the region and the overall
environment, there does appear to be some chance of flash flooding
into the early afternoon.

Lamers

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

[Ntxw]

Picked up a little over 1" from 2 rounds of scattered showers this morning east of the airport. They do drop a lot of rain if you get under one.

We are likely to hold this kind of pattern for several more days. Temps continue to look below normal until late in the period. No 100s.

[BrokenGlass]

Picked up a little over 1" from 2 rounds of scattered showers this morning east of the airport. They do drop a lot of rain if you get under one.

We are likely to hold this kind of pattern for several more days. Temps continue to look below normal until late in the period. No 100s.

I’m no expert, but this seems like it would be really good bike riding weather.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Tireman4]

So....humm....Early Fall perhaps? You and Srain are our Long Range Guys....

[TheProfessor]

ah lovely rain this morning.

[Ducreauxs]

So....humm....Early Fall perhaps? You and Srain are our Long Range Guys....

Shhh don't jinx it! Haha

[rwfromkansas]

Finally raining pretty steady! Got almost .50, the most rain in months.

[TarrantWx]

Finally raining pretty steady! Got almost .50, the most rain in months.

I think you must be pretty close to me. This is exactly what we needed after missing out on all of the popcorn storms lately.

[rwfromkansas]

Finally raining pretty steady! Got almost .50, the most rain in months.

I think you must be pretty close to me. This is exactly what we needed after missing out on all of the popcorn storms lately.

Yeah, North Fort Worth around Basswood and 35 by Presidio.

[TarrantWx]

Finally raining pretty steady! Got almost .50, the most rain in months.

I think you must be pretty close to me. This is exactly what we needed after missing out on all of the popcorn storms lately.

Yeah, North Fort Worth around Basswood and 35 by Presidio.

I'm near Heritage Trace and 35 around Alliance Town Square

[Ntxw]

So....humm....Early Fall perhaps? You and Srain are our Long Range Guys....

Perhaps! I don't see any signs of heat domes. Euro has another trof week 2. CFSv2 keeps a general weakness over us in Sept and Oct. Jamstec back July was typical Nino climo with below normal Southern US in the Fall. The August forecast for that model hasn't come yet.

[Ntxw]

75F at the airport currently. Average high is 97F. It was 110F on this day back in 1936.

Of note, the lowest high temp on this day is 80F. So can do it if it does not warm much more.

[Yukon Cornelius]

75F at the airport currently. Average high is 97F. It was 110F on this day back in 1936.

Of note, the lowest high temp on this day is 80F. So can do it if it does not warm much more.

96 up here.

[lrak]

Will the blob in the BOC move towards Texas and give S. Tx a little relief?

[Haris]

Yesterday’s storms in Dallas were EPIC ! 1.4” near Addison

[Brent]

Still only 79 at DFW almost unheard of for August

[South Texas Storms]

Will the blob in the BOC move towards Texas and give S. Tx a little relief?

Yep, that disturbance is forecast to lift northwestward and help to enhance rain chances across south and central TX this weekend.

[lrak]

Will the blob in the BOC move towards Texas and give S. Tx a little relief?

Yep, that disturbance is forecast to lift northwestward and help to enhance rain chances across south and central TX this weekend.

Yay! Thank you Sir! Hopefully SURF it's been flat for ages.

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see unsettled weather across our Region in the longer range. Inspecting the afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 as well as the MJO Outlooks, there are increasing indications that a full latitude trough develops as the MJO heads toward the Indian Ocean that is favorable for tropical development in the Atlantic Basin. Conditions across the Atlantic has been hostile, but changes are brewing as likely the last surge of African Dust arrives Sunday into Tuesday. Climatology tells us that mid August is when SAL Outbreaks decline as we move closer to Fall.

While our tropical season for Texas has about 5 to 6 weeks remaining, climatology wise, we are heading toward peak season and as any responsible weather forecaster will tell you...it only take one to make for a very bad Season. Last year we had 10 Hurricanes and 3 Major Hurricanes develop around this time and ended about 7 weeks or so later. Always keep one eye on the Tropics as we near Peak Season as things can flip quickly.

Hopefully those that have escape the rain will get their chance soon enough. I see an area of disturbed weather heading our way just East of Tampico in the Western Gulf. That feature combined with the trough/closed upper low over Texas should increase our heavy rainfall chances tomorrow.