Texas Summer 2018

[weatherdude1108]

CPC now has a 4 day stretch for potentially heavy rainfall across much of the state.

I will miss out on this. Bummer. I'll be in Michigan all next week. But I can check it remotely from my outdoor camera.

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting model developments, mainly with the ECWMF.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
258 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
were developing mostly east of the I-35 corridor and south of the
I-10 corridor east of San Antonio. These storms were moving northwest
at about 25 mph and producing occasional lightning. Also similar to
yesterday, 20+ degree dewpoint depressions and a slight inverted V
sounding situation in the lowest 150 mb could result in some gusty
winds of over 40 mph as these cells collapse. We did see some minor
wind damage due to a microburst yesterday near San Antonio, and that
chance exists again today due to very similar conditions. TTU-WRF and
HRRR outcomes show the majority, if not all of this coverage
diminishing by 00Z.

Another day of very similar conditions is expected tomorrow with late
morning to early afternoon CI, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, and the potential for gusty winds and some brief
heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The bulk of the very moist tropical air mass will begin arriving in
the eastern CWA Sunday which will begin the multi-day chances for
precip. While the overall forecast details have not changed
substantially, some model changes have been noted that stand out.

For instance, the 12Z ECMWF deterministic model is producing
significantly more QPF than in previous runs, with upwards of 12
inches possible over both the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Plains.
This is obviously a considerable increase in QPF generation through
the upcoming week. This is largely due to its depiction of stalling
the parent upper low over the CWA and bringing round after round of
slow moving areas of heavy rainfall. However, the validity of this
outcome is highly in question, mostly due to the fact that both the
GFS and Canadian are only producing about a quarter of the QPF thus
making it inconsistent with other model depictions. Also, the ECMWF
doesn`t even agree with itself, as a standard deviation in PoP
potential is 14+ when comparing the individual ECMWF ensemble
members. This is likely due to disagreement in individual members on
resolving coherent lifting mechanisms. Thus, with better model
consistency in the MEN/GFS and further confidence in the lower values
with the Canadian being in fairly close agreement, opted to keep the
forecast QPF at what was advertised with the previous forecast.

However, if the ECMWF overall synoptic set up turns out to be
correct, at the very least, the possibility for PoPs may linger
further into the week. Possibly as long as Friday. If this indeed
does occur, isolated amounts may be need to be adjusted higher than
the 5-7 inches currently advertised. More detail will be available
as this event begins to enter the short term model domain.

[TheProfessor]

Wow, the 12z EPS is all kinds of bad for DFW. Would definitely suck to miss out.

[starsfan65]

Wow, the 12z EPS is all kinds of bad for DFW. Would definitely suck to miss out.

How are we going to miss out of the rain?

[TheProfessor]

Wow, the 12z EPS is all kinds of bad for DFW. Would definitely suck to miss out.

How are we going to miss out of the rain?

So what I think is happening in some of these model runs is that the ridge stays stronger over north Texas and keeps the rain to our south, east, and west and we miss out on most of the rain. If we want to maximize our rain totals we need the ridge at just the right place.

[starsfan65]

Wow, the 12z EPS is all kinds of bad for DFW. Would definitely suck to miss out.

How are we going to miss out of the rain?

So what I think is happening in some of these model runs is that the ridge stays stronger over north Texas and keeps the rain to our south, east, and west and we miss out on most of the rain. If we want to maximize our rain totals we need the ridge at just the right place.

i hope we get some rain from this!!

[Brent]

How are we going to miss out of the rain?

So what I think is happening in some of these model runs is that the ridge stays stronger over north Texas and keeps the rain to our south, east, and west and we miss out on most of the rain. If we want to maximize our rain totals we need the ridge at just the right place.

i hope we get some rain from this!!

be something if we don't get much after all the talk... lol

it looks like the GFS is now the wetter model in DFW

[TheProfessor]

Yeah the GFS keeps opportunities for rain through out the week and gives DFW a nice soaking. We actually kind of miss out on the first part of the storm like the Euro. Now if I were being greedy I'd hope for the heavy rain on Sunday night into Monday like some of the models have shown while also having good rain through out the week. But I'd 100% take the 18z GFS's offer. It spreads the wealth fairly well minus parts of Southwest Texas.

[Ntxw]

Nothing has changed my thoughts about rain. I mentioned earlier in the month that the flow would change with the re-curving of Bud. You will be disappointed if you focus again too much on the gulf entity. It's a tropical air mass and not so much a cyclone. The humid air will overspread the state and there will multiple days of opportunity for rain, for many. They will be efficient rain makers with high pwats. If you ignore all of that and look at the bigger picture the trough in the SW (weakness) continues beyond whatever comes in from the gulf. Texas will be under continued flow of moist air and some lift for the rest of June.

[hriverajr]

GET THE KAYAKS!

I'll fight the Euro if that happens and DFW gets shutout lol

you all don't need the rain as much as we do in the south and west :p

[starsfan65]

GET THE KAYAKS!

I'll fight the Euro if that happens and DFW gets shutout lol

you all don't need the rain as much as we do in the south and west :p

We need the rain too!!

[TheProfessor]

We could all use the rain. There aren't many places in Texas that aren't at least abnormally dry and CPC expects those areas to go into drought as well.

[Brent]

We could all use the rain. There aren't many places in Texas that aren't at least abnormally dry and CPC expects those areas to go into drought as well.

DFW Is even in a moderate drought after all the rain we had in the winter... funny how things change so fast around here

[Ntxw]

We could all use the rain. There aren't many places in Texas that aren't at least abnormally dry and CPC expects those areas to go into drought as well.

DFW Is even in a moderate drought after all the rain we had in the winter... funny how things change so fast around here

Crazy given we are slightly above average for the year so far. Vegetation is also green. Sounds like a climatological drought since April and May were below normal rainfall and being two wetter months of the year. Feast or famine around here.

Be crazy if a tropical downpour dropped 2-3" quickly at DFW this week and we rise right back up.

[Brent]

We could all use the rain. There aren't many places in Texas that aren't at least abnormally dry and CPC expects those areas to go into drought as well.

DFW Is even in a moderate drought after all the rain we had in the winter... funny how things change so fast around here

Crazy given we are slightly above average for the year so far. Vegetation is also green. Sounds like a climatological drought since April and May were below normal rainfall and being two wetter months of the year. Feast or famine around here.

Be crazy if a tropical downpour dropped 2-3" quickly at DFW this week and we rise right back up.

yeah have to admit I was pretty shocked to see the drought monitor on the news tonight... wasn't expecting that... heck last week it rained quite a bit at least in some areas.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro doesn't look good for the northern half of the state. Builds the ridge in from the northeast and keeps the heavy rain mainly along and south of IH-10. Gotta hope the other models don't trend towards that and it's just an off run from the Euro.

[TheProfessor]

I counted about 38 ensemble members that showed less an inch of rain for DFW in the 0z. Not gonna take it to the bank as the Euro seems to be much drier than any of the other models right now, but if those 38 members and the main run end up correct, then I want to formally start a petition to banish the ECMWF to the Shadow Realm.

[weatherdude1108]

The 2 to 3 inch totals are confined from Austin south to San Antonio in this graphic. I'm loving the extended forecast for the next week though, as it looks at this time.


Tropical moisture will move into Texas this weekend bringing a good chance for an extended rain event Sunday through Wednesday. Rainfall accumulations will average 2-3 inches with isolated totals reaching 5-7 inches. Localized flooding could be possible within the higher amounts.


An increase in tropical moisture will then lead to a much better chance of rainfall for the upcoming weekend and especially during the early to middle portions of next week. Locally heavy downpours are possible given the tropical nature of the airmass, but at this time it is difficult to pinpoint which locations will see the heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be above normal across south central Texas until the weekend when clouds and rain will keep readings at or below normal.

[Ntxw]

Highs in the 80s heading into the Solstice is well below normal. Averages are running about the low 90s and rising.

In 1980 we were all 100-115F

[CaptinCrunch]

My lawn is looking like crap, even watering every 3 days isn't enough to keep the ground even slightly moist, plus my water bill this coming round is going to be stupid. So I pray for a weeks long rain be it whatever as long as my yard get a good soaking, and I need to cut the hay that I have left in the back just to cut down on the fire risk....lol