Texas Summer 2018

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Brent
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#781 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:01 pm

106 at DFW, record today is 110 from the infamous 1980(the all time July high)

Record tomorrow is 107 which could be threatened and the 105 on Friday looks to be a goner for sure
Last edited by Brent on Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#782 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:01 pm

Enjoying storms in Florida at a convention. Hot, but it rains so the day ends in the 80s. Comfy.

Dreading coming home tomorrow.

Also, I have heard talk El Niño is looking less likely. Anybody see the latest forecast?

I hope not. We need it...
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#783 Postby Haris » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:03 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Enjoying storms in Florida at a convention. Hot, but it rains so the day ends in the 80s. Comfy.

Dreading coming home tomorrow.

Also, I have heard talk El Niño is looking less likely. Anybody see the latest forecast?

I hope not. We need it...



Yeah its looking less likely at least as far as a mod nino is concerned. and looks delayed. weak one in winter still looks very possible however.

if it doesnt happen , esp after this very dry year, im going into long term depression
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#784 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:17 pm

108 today. :crying:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#785 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:18 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:NBC 5 just went 107 Thursday and 108 Friday yikes :eek:

Where's all the heat people? Anyone?


I'm here, just enjoying the nice warmth. I think I'll keep it nice and warm through next winter...


:uarrow: This crazy old coot... :lol: doesn't he know tricks are for kids? :lol: :lol:


We all love ya' wxman57, but UGH. :roll: :grrr: :sun:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#786 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:22 pm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml

12 July 2018
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to about 65% during fall, and to about 70% during winter 2018-19.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#787 Postby FunNestlé » Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:21 pm

I wouldn't mind if El Nino failed, as I actually prefer warmer, drier conditions during winter, spring and fall. Heavy rains are best for summer, as that is when they are actually needed.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#788 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:42 am

Hasn't this actually been a fairly wet year so far? I mean like yeah it's hot this week and it's terrible but a week ago it was raining every day (in July!!!). I'm not really ready to start complaining yet.

If it rains again this month I'll consider this to be a better July than usual. I'm not sure if this is a "new normal" thing or "always been normal" thing but either way I'm just used to it here at this point.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#789 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:34 am

000
FXUS64 KEWX 190844
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
344 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Hot and dry conditions continue through the short term. High
temperatures today near or a degree warmer than yesterday. Many
sites in LLano County and isolated locations in Burnet County reached
105 to 107 degrees yesterday. Based on expected temperatures today
near or slightly warmer than these values we have elected to issue
an Excessive Heat Warning for this afternoon and early evening for
both Llano and Burnet Counties. We have also issued a Heat Advisory
for Williamson and Travis Counties, where temperatures of around 102
to 104 degrees are expected. Elsewhere across South Central Texas,
some other isolated locations could reach Advisory criteria. Again,
temperatures on Friday reaching or a degree warmer than today. The
Heat Advisory could potentially be expanded in coverage on Friday.

However, it should be stressed that it will be very hot everywhere
today, through the weekend, and into Monday. Heat safety messaging
does NOT just apply to those counties in a Warning or Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
A strong mid and upper level ridge is forecast to expand through
New Mexico and into West Central Texas Friday through the weekend.
NAEFS and GEFS data indicate H5 ridge heights at maximum heights
over the 30 year climo record for this time of year and H85 and H7
temperatures at or near max temps.
Temperatures will warm further
across South Central Texas over the weekend, likely peaking Sunday
and Monday. Highs will range from 100-104 degrees across the Hill
Country, 102-106 degrees along and east the I-35 corridor and 105-110
along the Rio Grande.
Record highs will likely be set at least
Sunday and Monday, but potentially Friday ad Saturday as well. Heat
Advisories will likely be needed for most of the region during the
weekend and Monday. Excessive Heat Warnings are likely for Llano and
Burnet and potentially needed for the I-35 corridor
and Rio Grande.

ECMWF has trended toward the GFS with ridge backing farther off to
the west Tuesday and Wednesday.
This should allow for cooler
temperatures, but still hot, and potentially low chances for
isolated convection on the northerly flow.


&&
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#790 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:56 am

somethingfunny wrote:Hasn't this actually been a fairly wet year so far? I mean like yeah it's hot this week and it's terrible but a week ago it was raining every day (in July!!!). I'm not really ready to start complaining yet.

If it rains again this month I'll consider this to be a better July than usual. I'm not sure if this is a "new normal" thing or "always been normal" thing but either way I'm just used to it here at this point.


The rain was too localized and did not remedy the drought (most of the metroplex is in severe drought). DFW is running 2" or so below normal. Most of rainfall was from Feb. Overall it has been a hot summer, hottest since 2012 so far. Summers since then have been fairly mild and pleasant relatively speaking for NTX. It is no 2011 but not 2013-2017 either.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#791 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:07 am

FYI if DFW can hit 110 within the next few days that will get into the top 10 hottest temperatures on record.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#792 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:38 am

Joe Bastardi

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@BigJoeBastardi
2h2 hours ago
More
Hold on Texas.. A week of torrid heat but I think cooling comes after that. Fry pan Olympics rest of summer with record challenging heat west, 75% of the nation at or below normal rest of summer tho. I wonder what will get the headlines
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#793 Postby BrokenGlass » Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:51 am

aggiecutter wrote:Joe Bastardi

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@BigJoeBastardi
2h2 hours ago
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Hold on Texas.. A week of torrid heat but I think cooling comes after that. Fry pan Olympics rest of summer with record challenging heat west, 75% of the nation at or below normal rest of summer tho. I wonder what will get the headlines

I hope he’s right. Enjoy his AGW trolling.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#794 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:59 am

Early look at the CPC thinking for winter!

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#795 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:53 am

My brother sent me a tweet he found about Lubbock’s all-time warmest low temperature. I verified it with the NWS. The dewpoint was only 48, which usually means it drops lower than 81 (?). Insane! Wow. The low is what you count on to cool off. :double:

Image
Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#796 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:11 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Early look at the CPC thinking for winter!

Image


CPC must be banking on late Fall El Nino to issue these maps. The EC on temps means nothing, but I do enjoy the greenage thru Winter :wink:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#797 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:59 pm

3 PM temp in Wichita Falls - 111. This is getting out of hand.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#798 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:17 pm

I continue to see changes in the Hemispheric Pattern as we head toward late July into August. The Afternoon Update CPC Day 8-14 Outlook suggest a very deep longwave trough becoming established East of the Rockies with temperatures cooling and rain chances increase. It is also noteworthy that a very impressive wet phase of the MJO suggesting rising air allowing thunderstorms to develop across the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic Basin in conjunction with the strongest Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave we've seen so far this year arrives as July end and August begins.

After a mix of weather doldrums and some rainy periods in early July, the pattern ahead suggest a much more active period may well be lurking. Water temperatures in the Gulf are very warm and can easily support tropical troubles, if they form. It's time to turn our attention toward the Gulf and Western Caribbean as well as for any Mesoscale Convective System that splash into the Gulf from the mainland and fester as Alicia did some 35 years ago. #ItOnlyTakesOne
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#799 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:28 pm

Meanwhile,

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
314 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

TXZ173-192-201100-
/O.NEW.KEWX.EH.W.0002.180720T1900Z-180721T0100Z/
/O.CON.KEWX.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180720T0100Z/
Williamson-Travis-
Including the cities of Georgetown and Austin
314 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM CDT
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued an
Excessive Heat Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM CDT
Friday.

* TEMPERATURE...Afternoon and early evening temperatures ranging
from 102 to 104 degrees increasing to 105 Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Very hot temperatures will increase the risk of heat
related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you must work or spend time outside.
Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing, drink plenty of
water, and take frequent breaks, preferably in an air conditioned
area. When possible reschedule strenuous activities during the
morning or mid evening hours. Be sure to check on persons with
health problems and the elderly, as they are the most susceptible
to heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded
location. Heat stroke is an emergency...call 9 1 1.

Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during
hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a
matter of minutes. Look before you lock!

An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of
dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot
temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous
situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of
fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...
and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

$$


Image
Last edited by weatherdude1108 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#800 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:36 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:3 PM temp in Wichita Falls - 111. This is getting out of hand.


I remember one summer in June in the mid-90s, I was in Lubbock for summer school. It got up to 114 (a record high for that time) in Lubbock. They had laid fresh asphalt down a day or two prior on the roads I was commuting on. The roads were literally oozing up tar, getting all over the cars traveling on it. I had to use about a entire can of Bug & Tar Remover to get the tar off of the side of my car. It was a MESS! I actually saw the tar oozing out of the road in places.
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