Moderator: S2k Moderators
Haris wrote:So does this seemed lock ? Any chance this heads E to Louisiana and misses us . (The wave)
Ntxw wrote:12z gfs gave up on the cat5 in the gulf and more in line with Euro, this is what I was expecting. This is a good thing as more moisture will spread into Texas further inland as well. Again flow from Bud this is almost a lock for widespread tropical rains.
Also this scenario keeps the faucet on after the fact, rather than shutting it off.
It is very hard to get a hurricane in the Gulf when there is a big Hurricane off the Mexican West coast, like what the GFS was trying intensity wise
Haris wrote:Ntxw wrote:12z gfs gave up on the cat5 in the gulf and more in line with Euro, this is what I was expecting. This is a good thing as more moisture will spread into Texas further inland as well. Again flow from Bud this is almost a lock for widespread tropical rains.
Also this scenario keeps the faucet on after the fact, rather than shutting it off.
It is very hard to get a hurricane in the Gulf when there is a big Hurricane off the Mexican West coast, like what the GFS was trying intensity wise
Yep. But whats up with the GEFS . They show Lousiana and Alabama getting water logged and we get nothing. They are totally different from GFS op. They want a cyclone apparently still
gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro would appear to bring less rainfall to Texas this run with the low-level sheared vorticity tracking into Mexico but not sure looking at TT site, does anybody have some rainfall maps for this 12Z Euro run?
Ntxw wrote:You guys are focusing too much on the gulf entity and where it goes run to run. The larger scale pattern is favorable for widespread rainfall regardless
The National Hurricane Center is indicating that the feature currently in the SW Caribbean Sea has a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with the eastern extension of the monsoon trough over the extreme SW Caribbean Sea overnight and this morning. Satellite images shows a mid level circulation has likely resulted from the ongoing thunderstorms, but at this time no well defined low level circulation has developed and interaction with the landmasses of central America over the next few days should keep any development chances low.
Late this week into this weekend this system will move into the southern and eventually the western Gulf of Mexico. Overall development chances look to remain on the low side in agreement with most of the current global model forecasts which maintain the feature as a tropical wave axis. A broad weak and ill defined low pressure system could form along some portion of the wave axis this weekend, but it is unclear at this point where this might happen if it were to happen at all.
Regardless of any sort of tropical development, a large plume of deep tropical moisture currently over the western Caribbean Sea will be directed into the central and NW Gulf of Mexico this weekend and likely toward the TX coast at some point during the weekend. Rain chances will likely be increasing as early as Saturday and continue to remain high into early next week. Additionally seas and winds will be building across the offshore waters starting late Friday and into the weekend with the general unsettled pattern likely to be in place.
It is still too early to begin to talk about rainfall totals, but various models are forecasting a fairly significant stream of moisture aimed at the TX coast for much of the weekend.
Forecasts will continue to change over the next several days as this feature becomes better resolved by model guidance. Maintain a close watch on forecasts from trusted sources.
JDawg512 wrote:Welcome back Porta, glad to see that your still around and well. Hope that you will be posting regularly again.
Ntxw wrote:In 2011 this coming week period, DFW (and the rest of Texas) embarked on the beginnings of the Great Heat Wave of '11. From the 13th to the 19th the airport hit 100 or more 7 days in a row peaking at 104.
This year we will have chances of rain and average to slightly below.
...it could be worse
Ntxw wrote:12z gfs gave up on the cat5 in the gulf and more in line with Euro, this is what I was expecting. This is a good thing as more moisture will spread into Texas further inland as well. Again flow from Bud this is almost a lock for widespread tropical rains.
Also this scenario keeps the faucet on after the fact, rather than shutting it off.
It is very hard to get a hurricane in the Gulf when there is a big Hurricane off the Mexican West coast, like what the GFS was trying intensity wise
