Texas Summer 2018

[utpmg]

It's SPRINKLING, SERIOUSLY!!

Yeah, it started raining on UT campus about 20 minutes ago. And looks like the low temp will be 85 at Mabry. Weird stuff.

[tolakram]

Til the next one? Causes/Solutions anyone???

Get rid of the Rocky Mountains. That way, the jet stream can maintain a more zonal mean position, allowing high pressure to elongate and settle north that it allows Texas summer rainfall. Just like it is on every other continent in the world.

I think the discussion was the extreme heat in numerous locations at the moment, not the normal Texas hot summer.

[FunNestlé]

I think the discussion was the extreme heat in numerous locations at the moment, not the normal Texas hot summer.

Nope, it's definitely about this "normal" Texas hot summer, which is actually abnormal.

[Portastorm]

I think the discussion was the extreme heat in numerous locations at the moment, not the normal Texas hot summer.

Nope, it's definitely about this "normal" Texas hot summer, which is actually abnormal.

It's all a matter of perspective. While it may be abnormal compared to the "norms" ... it is somewhat normal compared to the last 20 years where we have seen increasing numbers of 100-degree-plus days in Texas. Victor Murphy, an excellent climate scientist who works for the NWS office out of Fort Worth, has been tweeting a bunch of data supporting this over the last few weeks.

[FunNestlé]

It's all a matter of perspective. While it may be abnormal compared to the "norms" ... it is somewhat normal compared to the last 20 years where we have seen increasing numbers of 100-degree-plus days in Texas. Victor Murphy, an excellent climate scientist who works for the NWS office out of Fort Worth, has been tweeting a bunch of data supporting this over the last few weeks.

Precisely. This abnormality manifests in multiple ways, not only with temperatures relative to the long-time average, but also through deviance regardin what Texas should be experiencing given its latitude and continental position.

[weatherdude1108]

I went out for a jog this morning, and noticed when I stepped out, it felt really warm, like abnormally warm(??).

I checked my weather station, and sure enough, it was 84 degrees! I confirmed it with the closest NWS office to my location.

I don't ever remember it being that warm at this time of day, since I moved here in 2006.

It looks like they got rain afterwards, which got their low temperature down. Thank goodness! I don't think Mabry or Bergstrom were as lucky.

Any MAXIMUM LOW temperatures being broken??

[Portastorm]

weatherdude, the record maximum low for today is 86, set in 1906. Granted that is for KATT (Camp Mabry). But this is also the warmest minimum temperature at the airport in 20 years.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

weatherdude, the record maximum low for today is 86, set in 1906. Granted that is for KATT (Camp Mabry). But this is also the warmest minimum temperature at the airport in 20 years.

Thanks Portastorm. This is going to sound weird, but I'm somewhat relieved that 86 was set in 1906, right before the start of the industrial revolution and widespread pavement and asphalt were around.

Whatever, too hot in any case! Plus, people didn't have AC in 1906!

[Haris]

I got a heavy rain shower this morning dropped .07"

[Haris]

My recap of Yesterday

[aggiecutter]

This heat wave has become unbearable:

Current conditions at
Texarkana, Texarkana Regional-Webb Field (KTXK)
Lat: 33.46°NLon: 93.99°WElev: 387ft.

Partly Cloudy

88°F

31°C

Humidity 40%
Wind Speed Vrbl 7 mph
Barometer 30.05 in (1017.1 mb)
Dewpoint 61°F (16°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 88°F (31°C)
Last update 24 Jul 12:53 pm CDT

[weatherdude1108]

My recap of Yesterday

Pre-frontal compressional warming it seems. Makes sense.

[weatherdude1108]

This heat wave has become unbearable:

Current conditions at
Texarkana, Texarkana Regional-Webb Field (KTXK)
Lat: 33.46°NLon: 93.99°WElev: 387ft.

Partly Cloudy

88°F

31°C

Humidity 40%
Wind Speed Vrbl 7 mph
Barometer 30.05 in (1017.1 mb)
Dewpoint 61°F (16°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 88°F (31°C)
Last update 24 Jul 12:53 pm CDT

[CaptinCrunch]

Today will end the 11 day streek of 100+ across most of NTX. But have no fear, it will crank up again starting tomorrow through Sunday with highs @ or around 101

[weatherdude1108]

[srainhoutx]

Very interesting pattern via the 12Z ECMWF if you're looking for a pleasant change in our Regional Weather. I continue to see a favorable pattern for rainfall and cooling temperatures compared to "normal" as July ends and August begins.

[aggiecutter]

[weatherdude1108]

Fingers crossed!

000
FXUS64 KEWX 242006
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
306 PM CDT Tue Jul 24 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Higher dewpoints have pooled in some areas along and east of
Interstate 35 bringing some high heat index values. Had to expand
the Heat Advisory to some zones along and east of I-35 for this
reason. The advisory will expire at 8 PM tonight along with the
original few counties near San Antonio also under an advisory.

A weak front has pushed through most if not all of the forecast
area. The north winds are usually refreshing, but not today as hot
air from the north continues its grip on South Central Texas.
Actually have higher heat index values than we have seen the past few
days when we had record heat. There were a few showers that
developed this morning but they dissipated rather quickly. High res
models still show some possible development well to the SE this
afternoon and evening...then the SW Rio Grande area overnight. For
this reason will be keeping in some low pop.

The upper ridge will slowly move farther west over the next few
days, and that should keep our temperatures and heat index values
below heat advisory criteria as better mixing and lower daytime
dewpoints work their way back into the forecast. Temps will still
be hovering around 100 most areas...so still above normal. No
measurable chance of rain on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
As the upper low parks itself over Southern California
by the end of the week, our area will keep dry with a return of the
typical S and SE wind. Hot temps expected but nothing that looks
extreme at this point. There are some shifts in the upper pattern
that takes place late in the weekend which brings a small promise of
rain chances early next week. The ridge amplifies out
west...deepening a Central Plains and Midwest trough. Models show a
cold front moving south into Texas Mon-Wed. For this reason have
included some Slight to Chance pop early next week.

[FunNestlé]

And after that trough dives south, it splits off and gets enveloped in the tropics, causing the ridge to finally lift north out of Texas ... as it should be in a real summer pattern.

[weatherdude1108]

796
FXUS64 KEWX 251108
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
The upper level ridge retreats further westward today which will help
keep temperatures a bit cooler and below heat advisory criteria.
Dewpoints will also be lower due to better mixing, keeping heat
indices tempered, as well. Temperatures will still be well above
normal, however, with highs today ranging from the upper 90s to low
100s across the region. Winds will shift back to the south and
southeast by late Wednesday evening. Thursday will be quite similar
to Wednesday, with the only difference being perhaps a degree or two
warmer in the afternoon.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The upper level high will essentially park itself over the
southwestern US for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
This will keep the forecast for south central Texas wash, rinse,
repeat through Sunday afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 90s
to the low 100s (so still well above seasonal normals), partly
cloudy skies, south/southeasterly winds, and no rain chances.

By Sunday afternoon, the upper level ridge across the western CONUS
amplifies, which will deepen a trough across the central plains and
potentially help drive a cold front through the region by late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. This will help usher in some cooler
temperatures and rain chances. Currently have only 20 to 40 percent
PoPs in the grids due to the fact that we are still 6 days out, but
both the GFS and Euro show this feature at this time.