Texas Summer 2018

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Moisture in place, daytime heating.... dont worry, there will be rain. Plenty to go around.

[weatherdude1108]

We already got a two minute downpour just before 5pm today.

[WeatherP1]

Great teaching moment on the current model inconsistencies from one of my most admired meteorologists, Steve McCauley. Well worth a 5 minute read about model runs and rainfall totals this far out.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 3833155903

To summarize, there are not many data collection sites where the tropical airmass is currently located (gulf and bay of Campeche). If we do not know what that atmosphere is doing now, the models cannot accuratl predict what it will do in the future. We know it will rain across Texas the next 5 days, but accurately predicting how much and where this far out is not currently possible.
This is also true in winter. It can be fun and frustrating watching each model run flip flop showing snow then warmth the next model run. We have very few data obeservation points or aircraft readings over the North Pacific Ocean. Until a balloon sounding can be done over the CONUS, I try not to focus much on each model run.

I used to get frustrated following each model run flip and blame the model for being incorrect more than 3 days out. Now I try to rememember the above from Steve. Look more at the upper air pattern and wait until 24 hours out to forecast precip type or amount. I’ve heard a few other wise members here teach a similar forecast method. Sorry about the long post, just my $0.02 on model runs and our Texas weather.

[TheProfessor]

Euro ensembles still look fairly decent. There are some bad ones, but then there are some heavy hitters. I'd advise our south Texas posters to not look st Euro Ensemble #8 unless you own an ark.

[bubba hotep]

Last two Euro runs would be some serious flooding for NE Mexico and any shifts north would put far South Texas in a bad spot.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty big northward shift so far on the 12z guidance. 12K NAM has 12 - 15" or rain for the Corpus area, that is up from 2" on the 06z.

[Haris]

Pretty big northward shift so far on the 12z guidance. 12K NAM has 12 - 15" or rain for the Corpus area, that is up from 2" on the 06z.

GFS

[Ntxw]

Carlotta remnants when she pushes north out of the EPAC will probably throw a wrench into things, and add more confusion.

[Cpv17]

Carlotta remnants when she pushes north out of the EPAC will probably throw a wrench into things, and add more confusion.

Complex setup.

[Ntxw]

Carlotta remnants when she pushes north out of the EPAC will probably throw a wrench into things, and add more confusion.

Complex setup.

There is a lot of PWATs out there. This is why you just got to have patience and let things play out, no need to fuss over runs of models. There is multiple opportunities for rainfall from different ways. Generally the highway from the deep tropics is open.

Next week we'll see a lot of bubbling summer showers across the state. Some will get lots where storms move slow, it may be streaky. In South Texas, coverage of them will just be higher

[Cpv17]

Carlotta remnants when she pushes north out of the EPAC will probably throw a wrench into things, and add more confusion.

Complex setup.

There is a lot of PWATs out there. This is why you just got to have patience and let things play out, no need to fuss over runs of models. There is multiple opportunities for rainfall from different ways. Generally the highway from the deep tropics is open.

Next week we'll see a lot of bubbling summer showers across the state. Some will get lots where storms move slow, it may be streaky. In South Texas, coverage of them will just be higher

I’m not sold on south TX seeing the highest totals.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensembles have come in more aggressive with Rainfall Totals and the chances for a potential tropical low pressure area for the Western GOM just offshore of NE Mexico/South Texas.

[jaguars_22]

Do they show heavy rain for central tx coast?? If it was in Brownsville wouldn’t north of there get most rain...

[Haris]

Carlotta remnants when she pushes north out of the EPAC will probably throw a wrench into things, and add more confusion.

Complex setup.

There is a lot of PWATs out there. This is why you just got to have patience and let things play out, no need to fuss over runs of models. There is multiple opportunities for rainfall from different ways. Generally the highway from the deep tropics is open.

Next week we'll see a lot of bubbling summer showers across the state. Some will get lots where storms move slow, it may be streaky. In South Texas, coverage of them will just be higher

Euro is an outlier ! EPS trended wetter for CTX and NTX like GFs

[Ntxw]

I’m not sold on south TX seeing the highest totals.

I generally don't trust the global guidance in this kind of situation for qpf. We'll have to wait for the higher resolutions short term guidance for more details. If you've lived in the southeast in the summer you'll have an idea of what I'm talking about.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Send it more West. W TX is hurting worse than anyone.

[Brent]

I’m not sold on south TX seeing the highest totals.

I generally don't trust the global guidance in this kind of situation for qpf. We'll have to wait for the higher resolutions short term guidance for more details. If you've lived in the southeast in the summer you'll have an idea of what I'm talking about.

Yeah kind of like one part of town gets flooding while the other part doesnt get a drop

[davidiowx]

Send it more West. W TX is hurting worse than anyone.

At least they are getting some relief today. And hopefully it continues as the moisture keeps pouring in from the pacific storms

[Ntxw]

It's mid month and DFW hasn't hit 100 yet . It's been hot consistently but nothing we haven't seen in June. Lets try to keep that no 100 streak alive.

Central TX has hit 100 already though. Austin and San Antonio have a few times.

[bubba hotep]

Lock up the 18z GFS, 2-4" for DFW.