Texas Summer 2018

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1261 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:26 pm

Haris wrote:
Ntxw wrote:It's been raining lightly all morning at the airport.

The record "lowest" high temp for today is 79F at DFW from 1906 (the infamous first of two summers with no 100s). Also the daily record rainfall is 3.57" also from 1906.



https://preview.ibb.co/kB02t9/4_F31122_A_9_EF4_48_C4_9913_94_F0230_F5_B58.gif


I saw that. Somebody locally is going to get A LOT of rain.

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1262 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:34 pm

Disco from WPC

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0633
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Areas affected...North Texas including DFW Metro Area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111809Z - 120000Z

Summary...Heavy rain bands and a few thunderstorms were beginning
to redevelop across North Texas, from Dallas-Fort Worth metro area
southwest to near Stephenville around 1 PM CDT. This storms should
persist through the afternoon, and could lead to locally heavy
rainfall. Given that some areas on the west and southwest side of
DFW metro area have received heavy rain in recent days, additional
heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding.

Discussion...GOES-16 satellite imagery clearly showed a relatively
strong MCV persisting over north Texas, centered at the moment
near KLUD (Decatur). This was sufficiently altering the wind field
to its west to produce an enhanced zone of convergence stretching
from near the MCV over the DFW metro area, southwest to near KSEP
and KMKN. This convergence zone should persist through the
afternoon hours and some recent clearing on visible satellite just
to the southeast suggests that the developing convective bands may
have access to increasingly unstable inflow. Overall, the ongoing
mesoscale setup favors increasingly organized convective bands
with potential for localized swaths of heavy rainfall in the
aforementioned area. The 12Z HREF and experimental HRRRE both
focus a small area of around 30 percent probability of exceeding
3hr FFG right in the DFW metro area. This is likely due to the
hi-res model agreement on a focused area of heavy rainfall, as
well as reduced FFG due to heavy rain in the same area in the past
couple days. The KFWS dual pol estimates show the highest rainfall
through this morning from Granbury to Fort Worth, and between
Cleburne and Hillsboro. Although heavy rainfall and localized
flash flooding will be possible over the entire outlined area,
flash flooding would tend to be favored in those two areas. GPS-PW
observations were just over 2 inches, as was the 12Z FWD sounding,
so the environment should support heavy rain rates and efficient
rainfall production.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1263 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:29 pm

Only 73 at DFW lowest high record today is 79 in 1906

Also the all time August high of 112 lol
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1264 Postby aggiecutter » Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:56 pm

JB and I were right: Summer Cancel:

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1265 Postby Haris » Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:26 pm

Flood advisory in Austin, 1.5" and counting .

Where yall at??
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1266 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:57 pm

It's raining moderately here! :D
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1267 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:28 pm

DFW airport is over 2.25" for the event putting it above avg for August.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1268 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:12 pm

Radar is filling in across DFW. I wonder if this will be the start of a nocturnal rain event?
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1269 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:32 pm

Pouring rain here rain really filling in indeed :uarrow:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1270 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:59 pm

Unless I am mistaken, DFW has only hit 78 today sitting at 73 now. It appears unlikely we go higher than that 78 which breaks the 79F daily "lowest" max temp from 1906.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1271 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:17 pm

right at an inch in my rain gauge and just started raining again, haven't emptied it since it started Thursday

CBS 11 just confirmed record lowest maximum at DFW
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1272 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:24 pm

Got 0.10 last night. Then, was mostly cloudy with zero rain this afternoon, until early this evening when it rained moderately to heavy. Up to 0.7 of an inch since last night.
Still light steady raining, like a steady sprinkler. Great for the grounds to soak up! :wink:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1273 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:24 am

Official. 112 years in the making :D

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
0152 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH...

A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WAS SET AT DALLAS
FORT WORTH YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 79 SET IN 1906.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1274 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:53 am

After a respite last night, had moderate rain again for a solid hour early this morning. I'll check gauge later.;)

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 617 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018 TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-217-218-122100- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Kinney-Uvalde-Medina-Bexar- Comal-Maverick-Zavala- Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Del Rio, Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne, Blanco, San Marcos, Austin, Bracketville, Uvalde, Hondo, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Eagle Pass, and Crystal City 617 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING... Isolated flash flooding is possible today due to heavy rainfall. An upper level low will interact with a surface boundary to generate showers and thunderstorms today. Some of these storms will produce heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals will be one to three inches with a few places getting up to five inches. This rain could lead to flash flooding. Places that have received rain over the last few days will be more prone to flooding.

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1275 Postby Haris » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:25 am

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1276 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:37 am

So far since yesterday. :)

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1277 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:52 am

Haris wrote:Image


Drought to flood.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1278 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:29 am

Ntxw wrote:Official. 112 years in the making :D

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
0152 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH...

A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WAS SET AT DALLAS
FORT WORTH YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 79 SET IN 1906.


If you flipped that, it is equivalent to a record high of 116!
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1279 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:39 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Haris wrote:Image


Drought to flood.


That is how droughts end.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1280 Postby utpmg » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:59 am

I've seen some decent totals over the past few days over the Colorado watershed but the streamflows don't seem to be doing much for the lakes. I guess it's so dry there's not much runoff? Would be nice to see something like that Nueces river video headed for the Colorado R.
https://hydromet.lcra.org
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