Texas Summer 2018

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gpsnowman
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1301 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:08 pm

Good Lord, the humidity is awful today. Good news is the radar is starting to fill in towards the southwest. Hopefully we get a good soaking before heat and humidity start to rule our weather.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1302 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:20 pm

JDawg512 wrote:Well that is pretty much that for rain. Now we need to peer into the crystal ball to see when the next significant chance will come. Not anytime soon that's for sure.


The Euro EPS continues to show a weakness across the Southern Plains with ridge centered in the SW. That probably keeps South Texas dry but should let some sneaky NW flow events into N. Texas.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1303 Postby lrak » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:02 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
JDawg512 wrote:Well that is pretty much that for rain. Now we need to peer into the crystal ball to see when the next significant chance will come. Not anytime soon that's for sure.


The Euro EPS continues to show a weakness across the Southern Plains with ridge centered in the SW. That probably keeps South Texas dry but should let some sneaky NW flow events into N. Texas.


ACK.....S. Texas is becoming a desert. I think the dunes on the island are working their way inland. :grr:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1304 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:23 pm

So far Wichita Falls has picked up 4.60'' of rain. When I get home ill see how much ive gotten at home which is a little to the East of WF.
Last edited by Yukon Cornelius on Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1305 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:36 pm

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Areas affected...north central Texas into far southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131807Z - 132030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A general increase in storm coverage is expected this
afternoon, and a few cells may acquire weak rotation.

DISCUSSION...A very moist air mass with precipitable water in excess
of 2.00" continues to gradually shift northward behind an initial
bout of rain now across OK. An effective warm front is currently in
place across far northern TX, where surface winds are weak but
locally backed. Deeper storms have recently developed across north
central TX, where temperatures were rising into the 80s F. In
addition, 2 hr pressure falls have increased to around 1.5 mb,
suggesting a continued uptick in activity. 0-1 km SRH has risen to
around 100 m2/s2, as shown by objective analysis along the warm
front, and observed by the FWS VWP.

While the lack of inhibition and pockets of heating are likely to
contribute to widespread rain and storms, the very moist low-levels
combined with low-level shear may be sufficient to induce rotation
in the embedded stronger cells, with a brief/weak tornado or strong
wind gust possible. However, the threat does not appear great enough
to warrant any type of watch.

..Jewell/Hart.. 08/13/2018
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1306 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:42 pm

Rain coming down hard in Irving.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1307 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:36 pm

I'm glad my house is getting much needed rain.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1308 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:01 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:So far Wichita Falls has picked up 4.60'' of rain. When I get home ill see how much ive gotten at home which is a little to the East of WF.


This may not be updated yet. It's over the last 7 days.

Image

https://water.weather.gov/precip/
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1309 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:15 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:So far Wichita Falls has picked up 4.60'' of rain. When I get home ill see how much ive gotten at home which is a little to the East of WF.


This may not be updated yet. It's over the last 7 days.

Image

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

That may only be taking into account the rain from this morning, which was right at 1/2”.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1310 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:24 pm

Almost another inch since midnight (honestly almost all this afternoon), so just cleared 3 inches for this event in north Fort Worth. Today was honestly a bit of a surprise. I thought it would be mostly west of DFW.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1311 Postby Haris » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:55 pm

todays eps are BLEAK .

1/4" of rain in Austin next 15 days,

SMH
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1312 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:57 pm

This rain mass on radar is something else for the hottest part of the summer. Whats this like day 5 of rain now? :double:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1313 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:52 pm

Looks like DFW airport is getting a soaking today. Padding those totals.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1314 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:58 pm

About another third of an inch of rain at DFW airport today as most of the heavier stuff indeed was to the north and west.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1315 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:06 pm

Texas weather the next week or so: decent chances of rain north of I-20, not so good south of there.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1316 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:47 pm

Ntxw wrote:About another third of an inch of rain at DFW airport today as most of the heavier stuff indeed was to the north and west.


I'm seeing some ground truth totals b/w 2 - 3" not too far west of the airport. However, I'm not complaining b/c back in 2015 when DFW broke the record, they had a day that a storm basically just went over the airport and set the record daily rainfall but died pretty soon after. I don't remember the day, I'll have to dig back through my tweets, b/c I remember getting a great pic of the storm from my position.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1317 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:54 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Texas weather the next week or so: decent chances of rain north of I-20, not so good south of there.


Looks like the 12z Euro EPS is showing another 1.5 - 2.0" of rain at DFW before the end of the month. DFW airport is at 2.73 for the month. If the EPS is right, then DFW will go over 4" for August. That would make the last 5 August totals:

2018 - 4"???
2017 - 4.24"
2016 - 4.42"
2015 - 0.46" (The year DFW broke the all-time yearly rainfall record)
2014 - 4.34"
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1318 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:15 pm

did anyone notice the 65 at DFW at the end of the Euro??? Fall is coming :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1319 Postby Cerlin » Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:37 pm

Some nice rain this morning and 3 different scattered showers after noontime here in Carrollton. This has got to be really good for the ground.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1320 Postby aggiecutter » Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:12 pm

Checkout the the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast from the CPC:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/
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