STORM2K

Good Lord, the humidity is awful today. Good news is the radar is starting to fill in towards the southwest. Hopefully we get a good soaking before heat and humidity start to rule our weather.

JDawg512 wrote:Well that is pretty much that for rain. Now we need to peer into the crystal ball to see when the next significant chance will come. Not anytime soon that's for sure.

The Euro EPS continues to show a weakness across the Southern Plains with ridge centered in the SW. That probably keeps South Texas dry but should let some sneaky NW flow events into N. Texas.

bubba hotep wrote:

JDawg512 wrote:Well that is pretty much that for rain. Now we need to peer into the crystal ball to see when the next significant chance will come. Not anytime soon that's for sure.

The Euro EPS continues to show a weakness across the Southern Plains with ridge centered in the SW. That probably keeps South Texas dry but should let some sneaky NW flow events into N. Texas.

ACK.....S. Texas is becoming a desert. I think the dunes on the island are working their way inland.

So far Wichita Falls has picked up 4.60'' of rain. When I get home ill see how much ive gotten at home which is a little to the East of WF.

Mesoscale Discussion 1282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Areas affected...north central Texas into far southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131807Z - 132030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A general increase in storm coverage is expected this
afternoon, and a few cells may acquire weak rotation.

DISCUSSION...A very moist air mass with precipitable water in excess
of 2.00" continues to gradually shift northward behind an initial
bout of rain now across OK. An effective warm front is currently in
place across far northern TX, where surface winds are weak but
locally backed. Deeper storms have recently developed across north
central TX, where temperatures were rising into the 80s F. In
addition, 2 hr pressure falls have increased to around 1.5 mb,
suggesting a continued uptick in activity. 0-1 km SRH has risen to
around 100 m2/s2, as shown by objective analysis along the warm
front, and observed by the FWS VWP.

While the lack of inhibition and pockets of heating are likely to
contribute to widespread rain and storms, the very moist low-levels
combined with low-level shear may be sufficient to induce rotation
in the embedded stronger cells, with a brief/weak tornado or strong
wind gust possible. However, the threat does not appear great enough
to warrant any type of watch.

..Jewell/Hart.. 08/13/2018

Rain coming down hard in Irving.

I'm glad my house is getting much needed rain.

Yukon Cornelius wrote:So far Wichita Falls has picked up 4.60'' of rain. When I get home ill see how much ive gotten at home which is a little to the East of WF.

This may not be updated yet. It's over the last 7 days.



https://water.weather.gov/precip/

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:So far Wichita Falls has picked up 4.60'' of rain. When I get home ill see how much ive gotten at home which is a little to the East of WF.

This may not be updated yet. It's over the last 7 days.



https://water.weather.gov/precip/

That may only be taking into account the rain from this morning, which was right at 1/2”.

Almost another inch since midnight (honestly almost all this afternoon), so just cleared 3 inches for this event in north Fort Worth. Today was honestly a bit of a surprise. I thought it would be mostly west of DFW.

todays eps are BLEAK .

1/4" of rain in Austin next 15 days,

SMH

This rain mass on radar is something else for the hottest part of the summer. Whats this like day 5 of rain now?

Looks like DFW airport is getting a soaking today. Padding those totals.

About another third of an inch of rain at DFW airport today as most of the heavier stuff indeed was to the north and west.

Texas weather the next week or so: decent chances of rain north of I-20, not so good south of there.

Ntxw wrote:About another third of an inch of rain at DFW airport today as most of the heavier stuff indeed was to the north and west.

I'm seeing some ground truth totals b/w 2 - 3" not too far west of the airport. However, I'm not complaining b/c back in 2015 when DFW broke the record, they had a day that a storm basically just went over the airport and set the record daily rainfall but died pretty soon after. I don't remember the day, I'll have to dig back through my tweets, b/c I remember getting a great pic of the storm from my position.

Cpv17 wrote:Texas weather the next week or so: decent chances of rain north of I-20, not so good south of there.

Looks like the 12z Euro EPS is showing another 1.5 - 2.0" of rain at DFW before the end of the month. DFW airport is at 2.73 for the month. If the EPS is right, then DFW will go over 4" for August. That would make the last 5 August totals:

2018 - 4"???
2017 - 4.24"
2016 - 4.42"
2015 - 0.46" (The year DFW broke the all-time yearly rainfall record)
2014 - 4.34"

did anyone notice the 65 at DFW at the end of the Euro??? Fall is coming

Some nice rain this morning and 3 different scattered showers after noontime here in Carrollton. This has got to be really good for the ground.

Checkout the the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast from the CPC:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/