STORM2K

The local weatherman Jim Spencer late this afternoon briefly talked about rain chances coming back next week, along with a pattern change.

hey , if you asked me , the 12z EPS were pretty nice for August. CPC also nice!

Accepting the risk of speaking too soon, this summer really hasn't been too bad here in DFW. We had the strongest heat wave since 2011 but it only lasted a week or two. We had a wet week to start July and another wet week here in August. Maybe I'm just forever grateful for every summer that isn't 2011.

somethingfunny wrote:Accepting the risk of speaking too soon, this summer really hasn't been too bad here in DFW. We had the strongest heat wave since 2011 but it only lasted a week or two. We had a wet week to start July and another wet week here in August. Maybe I'm just forever grateful for every summer that isn't 2011.

yeah and I missed most of the heat wave It's a win so far... I'm still cautious but the long range signals don't show anything oppressive on the heat. May even have another wet pattern in about 5-7 days

The early July rain mostly missed me and some others in the metro, so this recent event was more widespread and heavy.

Austin area in the donut again. Hmmm.

Barring some freak high, I'm pretty confident that we have passed the hottest period of the year with the heatwave in July. We are passed the average peak temps, usually the 30 days encompassing the last two weeks of July and the first two weeks of August. It's August 15th so (knock on wood) the worst is over.

JDawg512 wrote:Barring some freak high, I'm pretty confident that we have passed the hottest period of the year with the heatwave in July. We are passed the average peak temps, usually the 30 days encompassing the last two weeks of July and the first two weeks of August. It's August 15th so (knock on wood) the worst is over.

already lost a half hour of sun in the evening too

Fall is coming

Brent wrote:

JDawg512 wrote:Barring some freak high, I'm pretty confident that we have passed the hottest period of the year with the heatwave in July. We are passed the average peak temps, usually the 30 days encompassing the last two weeks of July and the first two weeks of August. It's August 15th so (knock on wood) the worst is over.

already lost a half hour of sun in the evening too

Fall is coming

When are we going to start the Fall Thread?

starsfan65 wrote:

Brent wrote:

JDawg512 wrote:Barring some freak high, I'm pretty confident that we have passed the hottest period of the year with the heatwave in July. We are passed the average peak temps, usually the 30 days encompassing the last two weeks of July and the first two weeks of August. It's August 15th so (knock on wood) the worst is over.

already lost a half hour of sun in the evening too

Fall is coming

When are we going to start the Fall Thread?

There is a Fall thread started however it is not open yet for discussion. Will be in 2 weeks on September 1st, beginning meteorological fall

Do ya'll have any idea when the Farmer's Almanac comes out?

Better than the 6Z GFS I posted earlier.

This explains the back and forth of the latest runs I guess.

670
FXUS64 KEWX 151953
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
253 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Mid to upper level ridging/high pressure continues to establish
itself across the region this afternoon. A few isolated sea breeze
showers are ongoing across Houston`s CWA, but this should stay out of
our region due to subsidence from the upper high. Temperatures this
afternoon will continue to climb to the mid to upper 90s across
much of the region. High temperatures on Thursday will be a degree or
two warmer as the ridge continues to build. Lingering elevated
moisture will make Thursday hot and humid, with heat indices creeping
into the 100 to 106 range for much of the area. This lingering
moisture and southerly flow will also continue to yield scattered to
broken morning stratus before scattering out by late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The ridge will remain in place across Texas through Friday before
beginning to drift further west toward the desert southwest this
weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above seasonal normals (note: climatological normal highs
finally begin to start decreasing by Friday) with highs in the upper
90s to near 100 for the Austin and San Antonio metro areas for Friday
through Monday, with heat indices above the century mark for the Rio
Grande Plains and areas along and east of the Interstate 35
corridor. Continued subsidence from the ridge should keep any
convection suppressed.

The weather pattern begins to change late Monday into Tuesday. An
upper low pressure system and trough will develop across the Central
Plains. Models differ on the specific location and amplitude of the
trough, and thus differ on the placement of the associated surface
cold front. The most recent GFS run takes the cold front as far south
as the San Antonio area by Monday afternoon while the ECMWF shows it
stalling out across central Texas. As such, the GFS suggests
increased cloud cover, northerly winds, cooler temperatures, and
greater chances for rain for Monday night through Wednesday while the
ECMWF suggests the opposite. WPC seems to be favoring the ECMWF
solution at this point, and shows very little QPF for the region
during this time period. Models have been going back and forth on
how they are handling this, so forecast confidence at this point is
quite low.

July was a hot one with 17 of the 31 days @ or above 100 degrees with the lowest max being 91

Speaking of Winter I saw an forecast over the weekend that shows much of the south central and southeast with above average winter wx predicted which included NTX.

CaptinCrunch wrote:July was a hot one with 17 of the 31 days @ or above 100 degrees with the lowest max being 91

Speaking of Winter I saw an forecast over the weekend that shows much of the south central and southeast with above average winter wx predicted which included NTX.

I have a hard time believing any forecast that’s made 4+ months away. We have a hard enough time forecasting weather that’s 10 days out much less 4+ months out. Just cuz a modoki nino could come to fruition doesn’t necessarily mean it’s gonna snow and be cold here during winter.

weatherdude1108 wrote:This explains the back and forth of the latest runs I guess.

670
FXUS64 KEWX 151953
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
253 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Mid to upper level ridging/high pressure continues to establish
itself across the region this afternoon. A few isolated sea breeze
showers are ongoing across Houston`s CWA, but this should stay out of
our region due to subsidence from the upper high. Temperatures this
afternoon will continue to climb to the mid to upper 90s across
much of the region. High temperatures on Thursday will be a degree or
two warmer as the ridge continues to build. Lingering elevated
moisture will make Thursday hot and humid, with heat indices creeping
into the 100 to 106 range for much of the area. This lingering
moisture and southerly flow will also continue to yield scattered to
broken morning stratus before scattering out by late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The ridge will remain in place across Texas through Friday before
beginning to drift further west toward the desert southwest this
weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above seasonal normals (note: climatological normal highs
finally begin to start decreasing by Friday) with highs in the upper
90s to near 100 for the Austin and San Antonio metro areas for Friday
through Monday, with heat indices above the century mark for the Rio
Grande Plains and areas along and east of the Interstate 35
corridor. Continued subsidence from the ridge should keep any
convection suppressed.

The weather pattern begins to change late Monday into Tuesday. An
upper low pressure system and trough will develop across the Central
Plains. Models differ on the specific location and amplitude of the
trough, and thus differ on the placement of the associated surface
cold front. The most recent GFS run takes the cold front as far south
as the San Antonio area by Monday afternoon while the ECMWF shows it
stalling out across central Texas. As such, the GFS suggests
increased cloud cover, northerly winds, cooler temperatures, and
greater chances for rain for Monday night through Wednesday while the
ECMWF suggests the opposite. WPC seems to be favoring the ECMWF
solution at this point, and shows very little QPF for the region
during this time period. Models have been going back and forth on
how they are handling this, so forecast confidence at this point is
quite low.

Models always tend to struggle when the WPAC gets active. A lot of energy is released and the models have a hard time translating that downstream into the various wave breaks.

Cpv17 wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:July was a hot one with 17 of the 31 days @ or above 100 degrees with the lowest max being 91

Speaking of Winter I saw an forecast over the weekend that shows much of the south central and southeast with above average winter wx predicted which included NTX.

I have a hard time believing any forecast that’s made 4+ months away. We have a hard enough time forecasting weather that’s 10 days out much less 4+ months out. Just cuz a modoki nino could come to fruition doesn’t necessarily mean it’s gonna snow and be cold here during winter.

Yes. Granted , sometimes , we don't even know what will happen in 10 hours. I was never a fond of seasonal forecasting , but that is just me... Odds of course do lean for a cooler wetter winter , (maybe) cough.. the s--word but we shall see. I won't and will not recommend anyone getting "too" excited... Like CPV said , we have had disappointing Ninos (IF) we even see one, and it is TX . But i'll be watching and so will you all I bet.

Yeah the next several weeks is kind of a mess in the Pacific. Too many moving parts and hurricanes/typhoons. We are actually getting into the time of year where re-curving phoons plays a bigger role on the north Pacific 500mb pattern. Also in about a month is EPAC re-curve season as well.

At least, SOI has been negative everyday in August so far complete reversal from July.

Haris wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:July was a hot one with 17 of the 31 days @ or above 100 degrees with the lowest max being 91

Speaking of Winter I saw an forecast over the weekend that shows much of the south central and southeast with above average winter wx predicted which included NTX.

I have a hard time believing any forecast that’s made 4+ months away. We have a hard enough time forecasting weather that’s 10 days out much less 4+ months out. Just cuz a modoki nino could come to fruition doesn’t necessarily mean it’s gonna snow and be cold here during winter.

Yes. Granted , sometimes , we don't even know what will happen in 10 hours. I was never a fond of seasonal forecasting , but that is just me... Odds of course do lean for a cooler wetter winter , (maybe) cough.. the s--word but we shall see. I won't and will not recommend anyone getting "too" excited... Like CPV said , we have had disappointing Ninos (IF) we even see one, and it is TX . But i'll be watching and so will you all I bet.

the s word around here in DFW, I mean some year it has to happen...

Wow invest in the Atlantic, maybe something to watch.