Texas Fall 2018

[Haris]

Windchill 34. Widespread rain !

Loving it in Austin

[Ralph's Weather]

Tyler was still at 69 at midnight so no record cold high today, but there is a chance that tomorrow through Friday could set record cold highs. Tyler's record lows are in the 30s now so we won't quite get there. Tomorrow's record rainfall is is 2.00" so that will be challenged also. Averages for mid Oct in Tyler are 57/78 so way below that.

[snowballzzz]

I was looking at archives of the Winter of 2009-2010 and most of the charts/predictions from then are almost identical to what I've seen for this coming Winter. How do these 2 compare? Are we expecting another Snowmaggedon Winter?

[JDawg512]

What a lovely day for a stroll along the river. Perfect for an outdoor lunch. I've been waiting to wear some of my nice long sleeve autumn shirts.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151614
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1114 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.UPDATE...
The cold front is now coming across the coastal counties at this
hour...58 F in Palacios with a 20 knot north wind and 86 F in
Galveston with an 8 knot southeast breeze. From shorts to jacket
weather within just a few hours as there is quite the temperature
gradient across the CWA; 49 F in College Station and 86 F in
Galveston. Interesting pre-frontal weather through Brazoria
County this morning as a thunderstorm cell just north of Angleton
displayed enough rotation to warrant a tornado warning (funnel
cloud was reported with no tornado damage). Also, in counter
intuitive fashion, clustering thunderstorms over Harris County
behind the cold front have produced copious lightning strikes and
high 15 minute rainfall rates over the south and east side of
downtown this past hour. TransStar cameras have shown some areas
around the 610 loop to either have significant ponding or high
water over various entrance and exit ramps. A Flood Advisory is in
effect through 1130 AM. Precipitation will become more
showery/drizzly going into the afternoon with an occasional clap
of thunder heard as there is enough mid-level instability to
produce elevated thunder. Not much warming, if any at all, due to
the rain and overcast...many communities have already reached
their daily maximum temperatures as the front approached them this
morning. Overcast, cool and dreary continues in the short term
with high chances for very light precipitation...Tuesday will be
raw with very sluggish warming of just a few degrees upon morning
minimum temperatures. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 52 47 50 48 56 / 90 70 80 40 30
Houston (IAH) 76 57 60 52 62 / 80 50 60 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 86 66 70 60 67 / 100 60 60 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31

[funster]

Already 2.3 inches at DFW airport by 10 am says NWS. Yards getting very soggy.

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1051850358153203714

[Portastorm]

Here in the ATX, 90 yesterday ... 45 today. Yup, the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County fully endorses this autumn weather!

[CaptinCrunch]

I was looking at archives of the Winter of 2009-2010 and most of the charts/predictions from then are almost identical to what I've seen for this coming Winter. How do these 2 compare? Are we expecting another Snowmaggedon Winter?

2009-2010 was El Nino, and a Solar Low compared to this year so far.

Sept 09 - cooler/wetter than average
Oct 09 - warmer/drier than average
Nov 09 - warmer/drier than average
Dec 09 - cooler/drier than average - 1st official freeze @ DFW was Dec 6th, Snow on Christmas Eve
Jan 10 - average/wetter than average - Snow
Feb 10 - colder/wetter than average - BIG Snow on the 11th with an average 12" across most of DFW

Sept 18 - average/Record wet
Oct 18 - So far this month we have been warmer than average, but today and tomorrow should erase that, and we are on pace for a record wet month again.

[bubba hotep]

Looking long range, models are showing the MJO cycling back through P1/2 and the EPAC staying active. Maybe another WCAB towards the SE before an early season winter storm fueled by EPAC moisture across Texas? Regardless, the crazy wet pattern looks locked in as we roll into November.

[Haris]

Euro has an ADDITIONAL 8-12” for Central TX over next week!

[Brent]

Remember the drought

[Cpv17]

Euro has an ADDITIONAL 8-12” for Central TX over next week!

That’s interesting because the GFS is crickets for Austin & a lot of other places as well.

[South Texas Storms]

Euro has an ADDITIONAL 8-12” for Central TX over next week!

Yep the 12z Euro has a lot more rain for TX over the next 10 days, especially next week as the remnants of the next EPAC TC move northward into the state.

[Ntxw]

The wet pattern will continue. The EPAC and cutoff trough over the west is the indicator. Depending on the timing of re-curvature of the Hurricanes is the disparity between when the model runs show rain or lackthereof. But most likely more.

[weatherdude1108]

It’s POURING here at the office. People in the lobby checking it out. Sheets of water coming down the window panes of the building next door, like a waterfall, along with a baby tree just planted this year between our buildings, whipping in the wind.

[bubba hotep]

DFW has blown past the 2015 pace and is closing in on the wettest year on record through mid-October. DFW started the day near 41" and is pushing towards 44" with rain still falling. The years left to pass are '73 & '07 which both had 45"+

[Cpv17]

This looks good for you guys in DFW. Not much where I live though which isn’t surprising at this point lol I wish we could get some of that energy off the coast to move further inland.

[Haris]

Rain total update:

1.9” W of Austin.

For the month: 8.34”

[ravyrn]

What is going on at KPSN?

I spoke to one of our officers who works at one of the units out by the Palestine Municipal Airport, and she stated she saw some fat wet snow flakes falling briefly for maybe a minute or so. But I am curious why this station has reported snow for most of the afternoon?

EDIT: Here is a screenshot since the data will change from what I'm referring to on the page I linked.

[Ntxw]

DFW had an afternoon high today of 45 degrees! Another refreshing day tomorrow. Now to get more of these days the next 5 months!

Starting to see higher heights across the high latitudes. The icing on the cake with this Nino is if we get that -AO/-NAO combo. The Pacific is certainly to deliver.