Texas Fall 2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

Currently 33 with a windchill of 24 and overcast. I don’t know if it will reach the forecasted high of 45 today. Aside from that, it’s a perfect hunting afternoon.

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS is ugly! 0.00" of rain at DFW after this morning and temps near 80 to start December.

12z GFS has 850s below normal for most of the run across Texas but continues to be very dry, except for far South and SE Texas.

[Cpv17]

What’s wrong with Tropical Tidbits?

[Brent]

What’s wrong with Tropical Tidbits?

they were doing upgrades this weekend

[Cpv17]

What’s wrong with Tropical Tidbits?

they were doing upgrades this weekend

What other sites are out there?

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro is pretty meh. There is some trailing energy behind the weekend system but the weekend system eventually sets up shop across the Great Lakes and the trailing energy gets sheared into the base of the GL trough. Overall, even drier than the GFS over the next 10 days across Texas.

[SnowintheFalls]

Seems like the current setup is taking it's sweet time to produce any excitement! Can't we just fast forward to the good parts??

[Ralph's Weather]

Not based on any specific model runs, just based on analysis of the various factors. I think we see the initial trough dig in around the 29th, I believe the EPO will stay negative as the GoA warm pool is not going anywhere. The SE Canada blocking should suppress the pattern to the I20 corridor. If we can get the PNA to stay near neutral we can see some digging troughs. With the dive in SOI inthink this is very possible. That said I see a possible winter storm around the Dec 2-5 period for the Southern Plains.

[South Texas Storms]

What’s wrong with Tropical Tidbits?

they were doing upgrades this weekend

What other sites are out there?

Pivotal Weather is pretty good. But yeah Tropical Tidbits is one of the best weather model sites available for free!

[Ntxw]

Seems like the current setup is taking it's sweet time to produce any excitement! Can't we just fast forward to the good parts??

We still have 2 weeks of November to get through . Likely nothing will happen the next week or two. It will be after Thanksgiving before we see it fruit on the models, and then watch for it to happen 7-14 days after.

[CaptinCrunch]

We really wasn't expecting winter storms before Thanksgiving, and with the current winter forecast and based analogs the bulk of our winter weather will come late December thru February.

Both 09-10, and 76-77 our coldest month was January and best snows came in February. Now just for fun, 77-78 which mirrored 76-77 for Nino sst's had a major Greenland block setup late Dec 77, and pretty much put much of the US east of the Rockies into the deep freeze thru February 78.

The average daily temp during Jan 78 was 33.6, and Feb was 36.8 with both months had stretches were the highs never got out of the upper 20's.

Models show a blocking setting up, and shows it to be pretty stout. If that block can last we could see something close to 78, but not record breaking like that winter was.

[Ntxw]

I am intrigued by the system early week after TG that the Euro and Canadian shows. It is far enough away to say that the track has possibly many changes ahead. Also in a prior post I also mentioned models may try to initially send storms to the Lakes, which I tend to disagree with given the ENS lower heights through the southeast. It's a low probability but it's a start and many changes ahead, it would not take much for the snow to be in west and N Texas vs the panhandle and central Oklahoma.

[bubba hotep]

Line up a lot of the years that have been getting chatter in this thread and look at where we are at/going.

[Brent]

I am intrigued by the system early week after TG that the Euro and Canadian shows. It is far enough away to say that the track has possibly many changes ahead. Also in a prior post I also mentioned models may try to initially send storms to the Lakes, which I tend to disagree with given the ENS lower heights through the southeast. It's a low probability but it's a start and many changes ahead, it would not take much for the snow to be in west and N Texas vs the panhandle and central Oklahoma.

Yeah i havent given up on next week having potential at least nearby yet last weeks storm/cold disappeared too at one time

[gpsnowman]

In non Texas news, many cities in the northeast are going to have their coldest Thanksgiving on record. Bitter cold blast shaping up for those folks. Single digits for lows in many places.

[Portastorm]

In non Texas news, many cities in the northeast are going to have their coldest Thanksgiving on record. Bitter cold blast shaping up for those folks. Single digits for lows in many places.

Along those lines, I think many of us in Texas are having one of the colder Novembers in recent memory. Austin is averaging 5-6 degrees below normal for the month and I wonder where that stacks up historically. I know that the DFW area has also been much below normal based on some recent posts/info from Ntxw.

[CaptinCrunch]

Line up a lot of the years that have been getting chatter in this thread and look at where we are at/going.

https://www.thegwpf.com/content/uploads/2018/11/Screenshot-2018-11-05-15.29.11.png

Looking just at the last 4 solar minimum on that chart 76-77, 86-87, 96-97, 09-10, November had a below average mean, except 09-10 which had a warmer November (59.5).
Currently DFW is (52.0) -7 on the monlty mean

The one thing that does stand out, the last 4 solar min had some sort of winter precip accumulation..

[srainhoutx]

On the theme of below normal temperatures, in SE Texas the month of November so far (November 18th) is the 10th coldest for College Station, 18th coldest for Houston and tied with the 15th coldest at Hobby Airport.

[Haris]

hour 144 beyond, cold air stuck in TX. freezing and snowy start to December.

12z gfs

[bubba hotep]

hour 144 beyond, cold air stuck in TX. freezing and snowy start to December.

12z gfs

After last winter, I'll fight the GFS if that run verifies! South and Central Texas don't deserve any snow this winter lol