Texas Fall 2018

[TheProfessor]

Someone from the midwest or Northeast is gonna get thundersnow with this system and I'm going to be insanely jealous if it isn't me.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Tonight skies should clear and very good for temps to tumble. Most areas should see middle 20s. Places where winds completely calm especially low lying areas may even go lower. Same for tomorrow night.

All eyes now turn over into Europe. The extreme 500mb ridge is setting stage for something down the road, in my opinion. Years that Texas see cold and snow early, even if very light, usually is a good sign of a good winter.

I certainly hope so, because another wasted winter of insufferable cold, while the rest of the state gets snow is just going to make us go nuts in NTX. I'm always team Heat Miser, but I do like some snow.

[Cpv17]

I know this is in fantasy land, but

[Brent]

Tonight skies should clear and very good for temps to tumble. Most areas should see middle 20s. Places where winds completely calm especially low lying areas may even go lower. Same for tomorrow night.

All eyes now turn over into Europe. The extreme 500mb ridge is setting stage for something down the road, in my opinion. Years that Texas see cold and snow early, even if very light, usually is a good sign of a good winter.

I certainly hope so, because another wasted winter of insufferable cold, while the rest of the state gets snow is just going to make us go nuts in NTX. I'm always team Heat Miser, but I do like some snow.

I stand by what I said a couple weeks ago, if DFW can't get a real snow with what everyone is saying this winter will be like, then I don't think it will ever really snow again

of course last year when S TX got their snow on December 7th I never thought we'd be shut out either and yet we were...

I know this is in fantasy land, but

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018111318/fv3p_z500a_us_65.png

too bad its 384 hours out because its a DFW winter storm

[TheProfessor]

First Winter Weather Advisory of the season. It's my earliest I believe too.

[Ralph's Weather]

26 here.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Currently 19 with one of the heaviest frosts I’ve seen in a while. I could see it getting to 17 before it starts warming up for the day.

[rwfromkansas]

Got down to 23. Wow.

[Ntxw]

DFW got down to 25 with light winds and fair skies. Eastland is the coldest place I can find at that got to 14.

[CaptinCrunch]

All I can say is

[Ntxw]

DFW is now -6.8F below normal for the month. There is still no signicant above normal in sight. At best we get to near normal before cooling down again for a few days late week. Also Thanksgiving is now starting to look stormy.

[srainhoutx]

Heavy frost this morning across NW Harris County. Currently flirting with 28F as a low this morning in my backyard. The coldest I've seen via the reporting stations is Caldwell where it is 26F. Bay City, Victoria on East to Dickinson have all dropped to 32F or below. Temperatures in the morning may bring freezing temperatures very close to Galveston Island.

Temperatures may struggle to hit 50F today for highs. A slow warming trend is expected for the remainder of the week into the Weekend. A cold front arrives next Monday, although it is not nearly as cold as this one. All eyes turn to next Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day when a Coastal trough/low combined with a strong storm system traveling across California, Arizona and New Mexico arrives and an attending cold front look to bring a very good chance of potentially a heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorm event to our Region.

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW is now -6.8F below normal for the month. There is still no signicant above normal in sight. At best we get to near normal before cooling down again for a few days late week. Also Thanksgiving is now starting to look stormy.

November hasn't been this chilly since 2014 when the month finished out -5.1 below average.

[Haris]

!

[Ntxw]

DFW is now -6.8F below normal for the month. There is still no signicant above normal in sight. At best we get to near normal before cooling down again for a few days late week. Also Thanksgiving is now starting to look stormy.

November hasn't been this chilly since 2014 when the month finished out -5.1 below average.

Agreed and in 2014 the end moderated into a warm December. I think we're going to ride this cold trend right through February. -5.1F is obviously a lot but given the forecast I think -3 to -5 departure is a very real possibility.

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW is now -6.8F below normal for the month. There is still no signicant above normal in sight. At best we get to near normal before cooling down again for a few days late week. Also Thanksgiving is now starting to look stormy.

November hasn't been this chilly since 2014 when the month finished out -5.1 below average.

Agreed and in 2014 the end moderated into a warm December. I think we're going to ride this cold trend right through February. -5.1F is obviously a lot but given the forecast I think -3 to -5 departure is a very real possibility.

We are on pace to match the 4 coldest Novembers on record 1929, 1959, 1976, and 2000 all had a average monthly mean of 49.*

[weatherdude1108]

Our weather service office area is breaking cold records as far back as 1907!

000
FXUS64 KEWX 140936
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
336 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
As of the 3am observations every ASOS/AWOS in our County Warning Area
is at or below freezing including the Austin and San Antonio Metro
areas and typically warmer areas of the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal
Plains. After setting a record low of 28 degrees yesterday, breaking
a record of from 1907, San Antonio went ahead and broke today`s
record low as well which dates back to 1916. Both of these records
stood for over 100 years. As of the 3am observation Del Rio has so
far tied its record low for today, set back in 1976. All of that can
be summed up by saying it is cold outside, and the ongoing Freeze
Warning has been verified for every county. Temperatures will
continue to fall through around 6am with the light winds and clear
skies, before slowly warming after sunrise. The Freeze Warning goes
until 9am when most areas should rise above freezing. Wednesday will
be a sunny and cool day with highs in the mid to upper 50s as the
surface high builds over the state.

One more morning of sub-freezing temperatures is expected Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. The Freeze Warning is a product that is
issued for the first widespread killing freeze of the season and then
is no longer issued for the rest of the season. The current ongoing
widespread freeze this morning will count as that "first freeze" so
no Freeze Warning has been issued for Thursday morning. With the
clear skies and light winds continuing temperatures over most of
South Central Texas will drop down to a few degrees either side of
32 by Thursday morning. The exception will be the Rio Grande Plains,
which will remain in the mid 30s. Thursday will be another sunny
day, but with surface winds becoming southerly again moisture and
temperatures will be on the rise. Highs Thursday will be comfortable
in the low to mid 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Thursday night through Saturday will be dry as zonal flow develops
aloft. Sunny skies will prevail for Friday with cloud cover beginning
to fill in through the day on Saturday ahead of the next system.
Temperatures will continue to be on the rebound as highs climb
through the 60s to near 70 by Saturday, while lows warm into the 50s
by Sunday morning.

A shortwave trough will move across the Central Plains on Sunday and
push a cold front south through Texas. Long range models are in
slight disagreement about the timing of the front with the 00z ECMWF
being slightly faster than the 00z GFS, but both models bring the
front through by Sunday evening. Both models do show light QPF along
and ahead of the front so rain chances return the forecast for
Sunday. The front will push through bringing the return of northerly
winds and moderating temperatures. Highs on Monday behind the front
will only be in the 50s, with lows back down into the low to mid 40s.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the front pushing through to the Texas
Coast, but a combination of isentropic lift over the frontal
inversion and a Coastal trough forming off the coast of Brownsville
on Monday will keep at least the southern and eastern 2/3s of South
Central Texas with modest chances for rain and an isolated
thunderstorm for Monday and Tuesday.

The forecast for Wednesday has a low level of confidence at this
point as the long term models diverge in their solutions for the time
period. All three show a trough of low pressure moving across the
Southwestern US and across north Texas and the Red River. With plenty
of moisture return and the lift from the trough it will be enough
for widespread showers and thunderstorms to form Tuesday night
through late Wednesday. Of the 3 models the GFS is the strongest
with the trough as it travels along the Red River, the ECMWF has the
trough farthest south and is slightly weaker than the GFS, while the
Canadian is the weakest with the trough and also has it farthest
north. The good news for Thanksgiving is that all 3 models clear out
precipitation by Thursday morning and it looks clear for Turkey day.
The bad news is that the travel day on Wednesday looks to be rainy
and stormy across much of the state. The forecast for this mid-week
storm will continue to change as models trend towards better
agreement over the coming days, but for now have broad bushed Chance
PoPs across the area for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

[Portastorm]

November hasn't been this chilly since 2014 when the month finished out -5.1 below average.

Agreed and in 2014 the end moderated into a warm December. I think we're going to ride this cold trend right through February. -5.1F is obviously a lot but given the forecast I think -3 to -5 departure is a very real possibility.

We are on pace to match the 4 coldest Novembers on record 1929, 1959, 1976, and 2000 all had a average monthly mean of 49.* (if you look at the # of yrs between those it's avg 21) we are 18 since 2000...

Similar story here in Austin. Camp Mabry is at -5.7 for the month's mean temperature. Amazing.

[rwfromkansas]

The year 2000 was an epic year as a kid in Kansas. That December had snow on the ground most of the month with multiple small snow events. Frankly, while I had a couple big snows, that is more memorable since it didn't melt off in a few days. I found the cooperative observer report online for that month where I grew up. Looks like 3 snow events and 9.5 inches total for the month. There was snow on the ground from Dec. 11 to the 31st. I have never recalled anything similar. That was one of those months that got me into weather. So, if we are on pace to match November 2000, I hope that's a good omen for Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

The year 2000 was an epic year as a kid in Kansas. That December had snow on the ground most of the month with multiple small snow events. Frankly, while I had a couple big snows, that is more memorable since it didn't melt off in a few days. I found the cooperative observer report online for that month where I grew up. Looks like 3 snow events and 9.5 inches total for the month. There was snow on the ground from Dec. 11 to the 31st. I have never recalled anything similar. That was one of those months that got me into weather. So, if we are on pace to match November 2000, I hope that's a good omen for Texas.

2000 brought us the epic New Year's Eve snow storm. That was about the first one that I have vivid memory of. That was the same event as the A&M vs MS St Independence Bowl.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_2000-12-31_snow