Texas Fall 2018

[Haris]

The GFS is the best case scenario !!!! Beneficial awesome rains from front

and a major cold front at that around September 11/12th!!! Fall is coming Widespread lows in the 50s on September 14th

Everyone would be happy with the GFS

It looks like the Euro may be going that way, its definitely weaker coming in like the GFS

Austin goes from nearly 30 inches on the 12z Euro to around an inch at 0z

heaviest rain is E/NE of Houston

shows some more rain tho last couple frames

[weatherdude1108]

AHHHHHH! Happy Fall thread!


Due to increased moisture and a series of disturbances rain chances will increase over the next 5 days with scattered showers and storms possible each day. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible with the stronger showers and thunderstorms. Some pockets of heavier rain will be possible late in the week. Temperatures will gradually "cool" to near or slightly below normal.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I know the Euro is tight lipped on data, but can we see rainfall data from its projection? Thanks.

[Cypresso]

Looks like Invest 91 (the possible "Gordon") tracking is now showing a tad more to the north than the earlier runs. Still quite uncertain until it enters the Gulf. Still will be very alert in our location! Sitting at a 90% chance now for the five day forecast.

[Haris]

Euro is awesome . 3-4” everywhere

[austin06]

I was feeling jealous because people in my town were posting pics of the 3" of rain they got last night while we got not a drop.

Then it started to downpour and has lasted the past 45 minutes. We have puddles! Most significant rain in months.

[Haris]

Euro is awesome . 3-4” everywhere

oh my the ePS are amazing too

[Yukon Cornelius]

Comin’ a flood for the last hour or so here.

[weatherdude1108]

I was feeling jealous because people in my town were posting pics of the 3" of rain they got last night while we got not a drop.

Then it started to downpour and has lasted the past 45 minutes. We have puddles! Most significant rain in months.

I did not get a drop last night, but saw lightning in distance. Still nothing here yet today either. Playing the waiting game.

We drove out to Wimberley yesterday. It is SO DRY in that area. So much brown grass and yellow shrubs between Austin and here. They need rain desperately. Looks like they missed out on the last two events in July and August by the way it looked.

[Brent]

Most of us are in or near the 5 day cone for future Gordon

[Cpv17]

Most of us are in or near the 5 day cone for future Gordon

I’m not expecting anything much from it here in SETX. We’ll be on the dry side of it

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Most of us are in or near the 5 day cone for future Gordon

I’m not expecting anything much from it here in SETX. We’ll be on the dry side of it

If we are in the vicinity of the low, lower surface pressure, with day time heating we will have some big rain makers despite being on the dry side.

[Cpv17]

Most of us are in or near the 5 day cone for future Gordon

I’m not expecting anything much from it here in SETX. We’ll be on the dry side of it

If we are in the vicinity of the low, lower surface pressure, with day time heating we will have some big rain makers despite being on the dry side.

How? When the storm will be north and east of us? That’s the dry side. Explain yourself lol

[Cpv17]

The only way I guess I could see us folks down here get any rain from the storm is if it’s not very well consolidated and it’s just one big sloppy mess and pressure remains low in our area and PWAT’s remain high..then yeah I could see us get some rain.

[Portastorm]

The only way I guess I could see us folks down here get any rain from the storm is if it’s not very well consolidated and it’s just one big sloppy mess and pressure remains low in our area and PWAT’s remain high..then yeah I could see us get some rain.

Actually I could see a very plausible scenario where the training line of convection rolling into a low center in North Texas would line up over SE Texas and create rain chances. Just remember what radars look like when tropical systems are winding down, yet they have long bands of convection spiraling into the center.

[Cypresso]

The only way I guess I could see us folks down here get any rain from the storm is if it’s not very well consolidated and it’s just one big sloppy mess and pressure remains low in our area and PWAT’s remain high..then yeah I could see us get some rain.

Actually I could see a very plausible scenario where the training line of convection rolling into a low center in North Texas would line up over SE Texas and create rain chances. Just remember what radars look like when tropical systems are winding down, yet they have long bands of convection spiraling into the center.

With my decades of experience with hurricanes and tropical storms, I would still say SE Texas needs to remain on alert until this system enters the Gulf. Tracking can change on a dime once a system becomes better organized. My opinion and with caution as I remember Ike and how he jumped around in tracking towards the end of his Gulf travels.

[South Texas Storms]

A wet weather pattern can be expected across much of Texas over the next week as a series of weak disturbances track across the state. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the main threat. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will be likely each day, with rainfall totals forecast to average around 2-4 inches across much of the state through next weekend.

[Brent]

I remember with Bill the heaviest rain being on the west side at times too and yeah its not like the track is etched in stone anyway

Even without direct impact the pattern is still gonna be way more unsettled than it has been

[starsfan65]

I remember with Bill the heaviest rain being on the west side at times too and yeah its not like the track is etched in stone anyway

You are right the track is not set in stone yet.

[Haris]

Labor day looking very wet now