Texas Fall 2018

[Ralph's Weather]

Slipped down to 31 here this morning.

I do not see anything particularly interesting about this morning's models. GFS shifted a tad northnfor early next week. I still think it is driving that storm NE too early. I could also see the following storm take a much more SW path. It seems the models are wantimg to shift towards a +PNA pattern which I am not sure is correct in the long range. If the long range is more -EPO than +PNA driven then storms will be able to dig SW.

[gboudx]

I'm seeing the 09-10 analog all over the place... I'd love nothing more than a repeat lol. Snow on Christmas Eve and a footer in February? Sign me up

I'll take an 09-10 analog. My Saints won the Super Bowl that season and have that "look" about them again. Even better that it would be in the sphincterdome, AKA, the Falcons stadium.

[JDawg512]

Looks like the unsettled wet pattern has come to an end. Not a lot of good rain chances through the end of the month. Quick frontal passages with little time for moisture return. It's not like we need it considering the ground moisture is still in good shape. But if December follows in November's footsteps, we'll be getting pretty dry.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like the unsettled wet pattern has come to an end. Not a lot of good rain chances through the end of the month. Quick frontal passages with little time for moisture return. It's not like we need it considering the ground moisture is still in good shape. But if December follows in November's footsteps, we'll be getting pretty dry.

Yeah, unfortunately all good things must come to an end...

The next week to 10 days looks pretty dry across much of the state. There are signs that the pattern will become more active in December though. We'll just need to be a bit patient and enjoy the continued cooler than normal temperatures.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Fairly active weather pattern will result in nearly daily changes in the weather for the next several days. No significant weather events appear likely through the Thanksgiving holiday period.

Coastal trough and low has pushed east of the area allowing a much drier air mass to move across SE TX and resulting in clearing skies. Air mass is still fairly cool and even with the sun, only expecting high temperatures today in the lower 60’s. Next upper level disturbance will quickly approach from the SW on Wednesday and yet another coastal trough will form well offshore over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Models have been showing this feature further and further offshore which should keep the most active weather and any threat for strong or severe weather well off the coast. Expect clouds to rapidly increase on Wednesday with showers and an isolated thunderstorms by Wednesday evening over the area. Highest rain chances will be along the coast and offshore where best moisture and strongest lift will be found. System will be fast moving and will see rain ending early on Thursday morning. Post frontal air mass is not very cold, but how quickly the area warms on Thursday will likely depend on how quickly clouds break up. There are some indications that moisture may get trapped in a frontal inversion and linger much of the day which could keep daytime highs on the cooler side in the 50’s and lower 60’s versus near 70 if the sun breaks out earlier in the day.

Another quick moving system on Friday with a slight chance of showers (30-40%) and again on Sunday. Fast movement of the weather systems is not allowing much time for moisture return nor any significant amounts of cold air to move southward. Upper air pattern may buckle some into early next week with the post Sunday cold front having a better push of cold air to knock highs back down into the 50’s/60’s and lows into the 40’s after a brief warm up over the weekend.

Overall pattern is looking very El Nino like and extended seasonal outlooks continue to call for above normal rainfall and near or below normal temperatures for next winter season. This appears to be supported by the developing El Nino conditions in the central Pacific and also a warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska which would help to support the idea of frequent cold air intrusions east of the Rockies while moisture streams into TX from the SW out of the Pacific.

[Patriot12]

Who is ‘Jeff?’

[weatherdude1108]

I understand why he would ask that. You see "Jeff" and nothing but some paragraphs. I think he's a local weather dude in the Houston area(?). Not sure though.

[South Texas Storms]

Jeff Lindner is the Harris County Flood Control District Meteorologist. He's been forecasting the weather in the Houston area for many years, and generally does a good job.

[bubba hotep]

Last couple of runs of the GFS are pointing towards a wetter pattern across Texas beyond D10. Now to see if the Euro follows, there have been a couple of false starts already in model land.

Looking back at analogs, if you filter by west or central based +ENSO, low solar, etc. Then weight more recent events we get cold-wet look. Every event is different but recent changes in the background state, such as expansion of the Hadley Cells, has me discounting older analogs. As has been stated, '09-10 continues to be a strong analog. I also think '14-15 can be included given the SSTs in the N.Pacific.

So now we wait for the wetter pattern to emerge...

[gboudx]

Yes for those new to the boards, "jeff" is Jeff Lindner that South Texas Storms mentioned. He used to be active on the forum with the name "jeff", yes lowercase "j". Most of the old timers know who I'm talking about, but I'll start putting his full name.

[bubba hotep]

I'm as encouraged about the 1st half of December as I've been since we started looking for snow. Lot's of small steps forward in the 12z models.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm as encouraged about the 1st half of December as I've been since we started looking for snow. Lot's of small steps forward in the 12z models.

18z GFS holds out hope too. Day 10-11 shows a strong system moving though Texas with rain likely changing to snow on the back end.

[Brent]

I'm as encouraged about the 1st half of December as I've been since we started looking for snow. Lot's of small steps forward in the 12z models.

let's start the winter thread officially with a bang

[Cpv17]

When is this progressive pattern going to slow down?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Did someone say, stepping down? Early December looks fun!

[orangeblood]

Did someone say, stepping down? Early December looks fun!

I'd say more like stepping up into the money phases of the MJO....which, btw, we should see a lot of this winter - amped up 8-1!!!

[Ntxw]

Nothing has really changed. The Scandinavian ridge has made its way towards Greenland and will become a west based-eastern Canada blocking regime. The recent -SOI dive still is likely 7-14 days away from a strong southern stream moisture plume (WWB about to occur in the central Pacific). Whether or not we cash the last week of November was a long-shot but the storms are rolling. The stars are beginning to line up. The idea was that snowstorms would show up on the models sometime near or after TG for early December.

We likely won't see the coldest air (anomaly) with a +PNA but if there is a southwest low, then it will be good enough for snow. I would favor the east for the deepest cold in such a regime but for Texas is snow making pattern.

[Cpv17]

I’m sorry, but I don’t really see anything on the models right now that has me excited. Not trying to be a party pooper, but I just don’t see anything. I’m not sure what you guys are seeing. All of the cold and precipitation looks to be towards the southeast and into the northeast cuz of the +PNA.

[Ntxw]

I’m sorry, but I don’t really see anything on the models right now that has me excited. Not trying to be a party pooper, but I just don’t see anything. I’m not sure what you guys are seeing. All of the cold and precipitation looks to be towards the southeast and into the northeast cuz of the +PNA.

We've all mentioned the various players throughout many posts about post Thanksgivings and early December. If you choose to take the models verbatim then that's the only conclusion you can have.

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1064979264964046848