Texas Fall 2018

[Ntxw]

DFW airport is also now a whopping -7.2F below normal with about a week and half left to go. Guaranteed a colder than normal November now. Very possible we may see a top 10 coldest November.

[EnnisTx]

I’m sorry, but I don’t really see anything on the models right now that has me excited. Not trying to be a party pooper, but I just don’t see anything. I’m not sure what you guys are seeing. All of the cold and precipitation looks to be towards the southeast and into the northeast cuz of the +PNA.

We've all mentioned the various players throughout many posts about post Thanksgivings and early December. If you choose to take the models verbatim then that's the only conclusion you can have.

Well said!

[Cpv17]

I’m sorry, but I don’t really see anything on the models right now that has me excited. Not trying to be a party pooper, but I just don’t see anything. I’m not sure what you guys are seeing. All of the cold and precipitation looks to be towards the southeast and into the northeast cuz of the +PNA.

We've all mentioned the various players throughout many posts about post Thanksgivings and early December. If you choose to take the models verbatim then that's the only conclusion you can have.

Okay then let me ask you something. Why are all these troughs on the models that are coming through our area producing so much more precipitation east of us than over Texas? I mean just look at this. What’s causing the models to do this? I’m trying to learn something here, not stir up anything.

[Ntxw]

I’m sorry, but I don’t really see anything on the models right now that has me excited. Not trying to be a party pooper, but I just don’t see anything. I’m not sure what you guys are seeing. All of the cold and precipitation looks to be towards the southeast and into the northeast cuz of the +PNA.

We've all mentioned the various players throughout many posts about post Thanksgivings and early December. If you choose to take the models verbatim then that's the only conclusion you can have.

Okay then let me ask you something. Why are all these troughs on the models that are coming through our area producing so much more precipitation east of us than over Texas? I mean just look at this. What’s causing the models to do this? I’m trying to learn something here, not stir up anything.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018112018/gfs_apcpn_us_52.png

First off lets go through climo. It's not very wise to compare QPF, on model runs no less, between the east and south-central plains, ever. 9/10 we are going to lose. The climate there is wetter. It's like comparing Amarillo to Texarkana. 20 inches of rain a year to 50, it's just no contest. But you are right it is dry the next 7 days, mostly. That's not new. Remember most of us average only 1-3" depending on locale for an entire winter month (including November).

Secondly we have been colder than normal, much. Cold air generally does not hold water very well and we have been getting a lot of northerly and northwesterly flow. This is going to change. I mentioned prior the -SOI and in about 7-10 days the tune of the guidance will likely change and relative to our averages which is a better indicator than comparing it to the east or northwest coast, it will be wetter. You mention the coldest air to the east, that's a good sign we will be warmer and hold more water, relative to normal.

One of the reason why it seems to be taking forever is because we have locked onto changes 3-4 weeks before it even happens. It's been a long wait, and still some time. Lets get through the last week of November before declaring anything

[Ntxw]

Also as a friendly reminder to all we will be moving to the winter thread for open discussion next Saturday December 1st. 10 more days before meteorological winter y'all!

[Cpv17]

We've all mentioned the various players throughout many posts about post Thanksgivings and early December. If you choose to take the models verbatim then that's the only conclusion you can have.

Okay then let me ask you something. Why are all these troughs on the models that are coming through our area producing so much more precipitation east of us than over Texas? I mean just look at this. What’s causing the models to do this? I’m trying to learn something here, not stir up anything.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018112018/gfs_apcpn_us_52.png

First off lets go through climo. It's not very wise to compare QPF, on model runs no less, between the east and south-central plains, ever. 9/10 we are going to lose. The climate there is wetter. It's like comparing Amarillo to Texarkana. 20 inches of rain a year to 50, it's just no contest. But you are right it is dry the next 7 days, mostly. That's not new. Remember most of us average only 1-3" depending on locale for an entire winter month (including November).

Secondly we have been colder than normal, much. Cold air generally does not hold water very well and we have been getting a lot of northerly and northwesterly flow. This is going to change. I mentioned prior the -SOI and in about 7-10 days the tune of the guidance will likely change and relative to our averages which is a better indicator than comparing it to the east or northwest coast, it will be wetter. You mention the coldest air to the east, that's a good sign we will be warmer and hold more water, relative to normal.

One of the reason why it seems to be taking forever is because we have locked onto changes 3-4 weeks before it even happens. It's been a long wait, and still some time. Lets get through the last week of November before declaring anything

This is a very good looking trough to give us at least a good shot at some rain is it not? Does it need to dig more? You would think there would be a lot of precipitation over us with this setup.

[srainhoutx]

All one needs to do is look at the Day 10 to 15 12Z ECMWF EPS. If it's anywhere close to being right, look out below across the Southern tier of States East of the Rockies. Also over the next week to 10 days we look to have multiple storm systems dropping rounds of heavy snow across the Plains and across West. More and more insulation from snow cover is expected. Very cold Siberian Air is building and if we get a true cross Polar flow as the ECMWF Ensembles suggest during the first to second week in December, these concerns about lack of cold and potentially moisture will disappear.

[Ntxw]

This is a very good looking trough to give us at least a good shot at some rain is it not? Does it need to dig more? You would think there would be a lot of precipitation over us with this setup.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018112018/gfs_z500a_us_41.png

It's a decent trough, but on this run it is diving southeast from the mountain west in a positive tilt before rounding the base. The jet is split ahead east of us. To get a good soaker we need something to dig down California and into NW Mexico and really pump up Pacific moisture.

[Brent]

Also as a friendly reminder to all we will be moving to the winter thread for open discussion next Saturday December 1st. 10 more days before meteorological winter y'all!

so close I can feel it

some big analogs for it

[Ntxw]

Quick update in the ENSO world. Major WWB is about to kickstart (thank you SOI!) and drive this Nino up a notch. This will be one of the bigger winter WWB we have seen since 2015.

[Cpv17]

This is a very good looking trough to give us at least a good shot at some rain is it not? Does it need to dig more? You would think there would be a lot of precipitation over us with this setup.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018112018/gfs_z500a_us_41.png

It's a decent trough, but on this run it is diving southeast from the mountain west in a positive tilt before rounding the base. The jet is split ahead east of us. To get a good soaker we need something to dig down California and into NW Mexico and really pump up Pacific moisture.

I understand what you’re saying now. And also I went and Googled some climo maps of precipitation after what you said about the climo being much wetter east of us. Yeah it’s no comparison. Living about 100 miles west of 35 seems pretty boring.

[iorange55]

I’ll be back in town from November 29th through December 5th, so here’s to hoping for an early December miracle!!!

[Ntxw]

I understand what you’re saying now. And also I went and Googled some climo maps of precipitation after what you said about the climo being much wetter east of us. Yeah it’s no comparison. Living about 100 miles west of 35 seems pretty boring.

https://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/images/eslabs/weather/us_ppt_1971-2000_456.png

Going through some climate for various locations is one of the most intriguing things! While it is true we get less annual precip, many locales in Texas sees much more frozen precipitation than most in the southeast of similar latitude. In fact most places west of I-35 gets more snow than those east of I-35, often are colder! If you check out historical records you'll see some much more impressive snow records in Texas than places like Alabama or Georgia and also more on a consistent basis. Even Houston sees more events than neighboring gulf locations of similar distance.

[Brent]

I understand what you’re saying now. And also I went and Googled some climo maps of precipitation after what you said about the climo being much wetter east of us. Yeah it’s no comparison. Living about 100 miles west of 35 seems pretty boring.

https://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/images/eslabs/weather/us_ppt_1971-2000_456.png

Going through some climate for various locations is one of the most intriguing things! While it is true we get less annual precip, many locales in Texas sees much more frozen precipitation than most in the southeast of similar latitude. In fact most places west of I-35 gets more snow than those east of I-35, often are colder! If you check out historical records you'll see some much more impressive snow records in Texas than places like Alabama or Georgia and also more on a consistent basis. Even Houston sees more events than neighboring gulf locations of similar distance.

yup I lived in Alabama til 2014, average rainfall is about 55", vs the 36" for Dallas... the snow, honestly, first year I was here I matched what had been my biggest snow in Alabama in 20 years, so there's that Granted last year they got a foot and we had nothing but that was a very big anomaly unlikely to be repeated anytime soon. Almost every storm I had ever seen in Alabama it was a struggle to get more than 2 inches

[Ntxw]

yup I lived in Alabama til 2014, average rainfall is about 55", vs the 36" for Dallas... the snow, honestly, first year I was here I matched what had been my biggest snow in Alabama in 20 years, so there's that Granted last year they got a foot and we had nothing but that was a very big anomaly unlikely to be repeated anytime soon. Almost every storm I had ever seen in Alabama it was a struggle to get more than 2 inches

The gulf is often a source of warm air. It can give that pesky warm nose a loft and it's a wet slush.

Dallas tends to break its snow droughts (much like it does with rain) in big batches. If the snow drought streak is going to break this year, it will probably go gangbusters .

[Brent]

yup I lived in Alabama til 2014, average rainfall is about 55", vs the 36" for Dallas... the snow, honestly, first year I was here I matched what had been my biggest snow in Alabama in 20 years, so there's that Granted last year they got a foot and we had nothing but that was a very big anomaly unlikely to be repeated anytime soon. Almost every storm I had ever seen in Alabama it was a struggle to get more than 2 inches

The gulf is often a source of warm air. It can give that pesky warm nose a loft and it's a wet slush.

Dallas tends to break its snow droughts (much like it does with rain) in big batches. If the snow drought streak is going to break this year, it will probably go gangbusters .

its kind of interesting how much I carry on about the lack of snow here, I mean in Alabama I can remember longer stretches than this I never saw snow

Temperatures are more extreme here though, hotter in the summer(though its the humidity over there), easier to get much colder in the winter(the cold is usually moderated over there in general and isn't as drastic as here)

[Ntxw]

DFW had another low deep in the 30s this morning at 34. While 30s may seem insignificant that is running -10F below the normal lows and we have been doing it on a consistent basis adding to the monthly departure. And for the past 12 days only 2 nights were close to normal and above 40, the rest were below 40. That's an amazing feat given urban heat island!

[WacoWx]

I found this interesting. SIAP

This is a visualization of daily snow depth for the continental United States from January 1, 1950 through December 31, 2015.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwehzWN4c_g&t=10996s

[Ntxw]

All one needs to do is look at the Day 10 to 15 12Z ECMWF EPS. If it's anywhere close to being right, look out below across the Southern tier of States East of the Rockies. Also over the next week to 10 days we look to have multiple storm systems dropping rounds of heavy snow across the Plains and across West. More and more insulation from snow cover is expected. Very cold Siberian Air is building and if we get a true cross Polar flow as the ECMWF Ensembles suggest during the first to second week in December, these concerns about lack of cold and potentially moisture will disappear.

I have been watching this period and actually like Dec 1-5 period to possibly be ripe for a snowstorm. At that point is when the -EPO will jive with the -NAO and the pattern will have matured. You can already see the Euro going at it. I think something big is going to occur as we flip the month.

[rolldamntoad]

yup I lived in Alabama til 2014, average rainfall is about 55", vs the 36" for Dallas... the snow, honestly, first year I was here I matched what had been my biggest snow in Alabama in 20 years, so there's that Granted last year they got a foot and we had nothing but that was a very big anomaly unlikely to be repeated anytime soon. Almost every storm I had ever seen in Alabama it was a struggle to get more than 2 inches

The gulf is often a source of warm air. It can give that pesky warm nose a loft and it's a wet slush.

Dallas tends to break its snow droughts (much like it does with rain) in big batches. If the snow drought streak is going to break this year, it will probably go gangbusters .

How much of that is terrain also? I would imagine that for somewhere like Atlanta or Birmingham, the cold air has to make it past the Ozarks and parts of the Smokies. Here, east of the Rockies, there's little but prairie for the cold air to pass over.