#1832 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:25 am
Ntxw wrote:This is my interpretation of the models. Probably not wise to get hung up on 240 hours+. The players are still the same, cold air aloft, a Greenland block, Northeast Canada block, and a decent Pacific. We are looking for storms now on the guidance because ensembles for the past week have shown lower than average 500mb heights in the southern plains and southeast US. This is the birthplace for systems that crash into the west coast. They go the path of least resistance. At first you're going to see models try to send storms into the block, it's not likely to happen. It's bad physics. In years with -AO/-NAO blocks storms like to travel the more southern path into the lower heights through the southeast and out into the mid-Atlantic and open Atlantic, not into the Lakes. But the guidance loves to do that before the blocks are in play.
https://images2.imgbox.com/1b/40/GewEDchq_o.jpg We have been watching for the storms to show after Thanksgiving and they are slowly but surely. The first will likely carve a deep trough and systems that follow it will continue to go south. While the surface often shows warmer than one would think (on models) this is the kind of year you don't really look at that until about 3 days out. If it's colder aloft (850mb temps often can tell you in times like this) the nature of how deep the cold air is for these systems they will find surface or make it. My two cents this evening!
That is a very good analysis Ntxw!! I have completely enjoyed your discussions of the winter-time synoptic patterns through the years on the Texas threads.
I agree with you generally that the cold and storms are eventually coming for the Southern Plains. Gulf Coast, portions of the Southeast U.S. and the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. We just saw the precurser event a couple of days ago with the nor'easter. I think we will have a series of these this upcoming winter season.
The Greenland blocking ridge and ridging over Northeast Canada looks stout in long range model runs, enforcing a pending -NAO, combined with El Nino, in all good probability assures southerly storm tracks.
It is looking like an potential winter bonanza for cold weather enthusiasts, especially across the Eastern CONUS. We will find out soon.
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