Texas Fall 2018

[Cpv17]

At 500mb the feature to watch is the persistence of the southwest/baja trough. This feature is a strong anomaly during weak and moderate El Ninos. It is the secret sauce to winter if it persists.

Hopefully we see one of those events where an arctic front of sufficient depth pushes through, and disturbances pinwheel off the trough bringing precip to parts of Texas. Wintry precip goldmine.

There will be a lot of happy campers. This exact pattern, if this were 2 months down the road, would be a significant snow event.

Yeah, but during El Ninos there’s usually not much artic air to work with, correct? I’ve always thought that during El Ninos the polar artic jet stays up in Canada and the only reason why we see below normal anomalies was due to the rain and cloud cover.

[Ntxw]

Hopefully we see one of those events where an arctic front of sufficient depth pushes through, and disturbances pinwheel off the trough bringing precip to parts of Texas. Wintry precip goldmine.

There will be a lot of happy campers. This exact pattern, if this were 2 months down the road, would be a significant snow event.

Yeah, but during El Ninos there’s usually not much artic air to work with, correct? I’ve always thought that during El Ninos the polar artic jet stays up in Canada and the only reason why we see below normal anomalies was due to the rain and cloud cover.

That's true. It is especially true the stronger the El Nino. We blowtorch with the Super events. The Goldilocks event is weak to moderate, specifically moderate. You get very strong southern disturbances alongside deeper polar air from Canada vs the shallow (extreme cold) cross polar flow events. We have to thread the needle still, but there are more needles provided to thread.

[BTAYLOR5021]

Keep in mind that strong el-ninos such as the previous 15-16 and 97-98 gives much of Texas above normal rainfall and temps so there is a lack of artic intrusions into the deep South as well as little to no ice/snow. Weak to moderate el ninos such as 09-10 tend to supply most of the South with colder than average and above normal ice and snow. It's proven just go look up DFW weather archives for past winters..

[Ntxw]

To follow up on earlier post about a late October rainfall event. ECMWF (usually conservative when looking at pressures of canes long range) is showing something very powerful paralleling the Mexican coast. If you like to track explosively intensifying Hurricanes like Patricia 15 or Rick 09, it's time to watch that region, followed by flooding rains in Texas. waters there have not been touched 30-32C and low wind shear.

[Ralph's Weather]

In Tyler we will go from threatening daily and even monthly record warm low temps Sunday morning (73 daily and 77 monthly) to shattering record low highs on Tuesday and maybe Monday too depending on the speed of the cold air Sunday night (daily is 60 for both days and 42 is monthly).

[Ralph's Weather]

In favor of some of the chillier guidance is the combo of a further west than typical core of the surface high (Rockies vs Plains typically) combined with a solid snowpack down the Plains all the way into NW Texas (not typical of early October). The -EPO, Baja upper low and SE upper ridge is a combo I hope we see many times over the next 5 months as it usually means cold enough for wintery precip while still keeping moisture around. There is a lot more room for error in a mod El Nino than there is with strong El Ninos or La Ninas as those require a perfect set up for snow.

[Ntxw]

NWS Fort Worth may want to consider putting up Flood or Flash Flood watches for North Texas. I suspect they will do so here in the day or two.



Edit: Watches are up

[Cpv17]

NWS Fort Worth may want to consider putting up Flood or Flash Flood watches for North Texas. I suspect they will do so here in the day or two.

https://images2.imgbox.com/18/b0/zNy68w1q_o.gif

Edit: Watches are up

Man, you guys have been in the sweet spot lately! Y’all are gonna be waterlogged like crazy over the next week.

[Brent]

NWS Fort Worth may want to consider putting up Flood or Flash Flood watches for North Texas. I suspect they will do so here in the day or two.

https://images2.imgbox.com/18/b0/zNy68w1q_o.gif

Edit: Watches are up

Man, you guys have been in the sweet spot lately! Y’all are gonna be waterlogged like crazy over the next week.

crazy to think we may be in record wet years again so soon after the record in 2015

24 inches from 2015 right now and some models have a quarter of that in the next week...

[Haris]

If some models were to be believed, I will reach 40” for the year this month!!!

Easily a competition against 2015

[bubba hotep]

Feels like the rain has really be over performing here in S. Collin County today, just keep getting wave after wave of rain. Another batch is flaring up now.

[DonWrk]

Wish I could easily upload pics to show how much water has been flowing up here north. Just too lazy lol. 1.5 inches for the day so far.

[Ntxw]

I don't know about 2015. But we're going to definitely give 1991 a run for the money again. By the end of October we could be only a few inches away from that old record.

The backyard is already soaked and puddling. Not sure the ground in DFW could handle much more. There hasn't been much sun to dry out.

[South Texas Storms]

Looking forward to the wet pattern across the state! El Nino is here

[bubba hotep]

Storms should fire out West and then spread across the state.

[Haris]

I don't know about 2015. But we're going to definitely give 1991 a run for the money again. By the end of October we could be only a few inches away from that old record.

The backyard is already soaked and puddling. Not sure the ground in DFW could handle much more. There hasn't been much sun to dry out.

Same down here... My sidewalk on flat ground flooded in front of my house because the surrounding grass couldnt take water. And when I stepped over the soil, my feet sunk in...

[srainhoutx]

Looking forward to the wet pattern across the state! El Nino is here

The Highland Lakes are full as well as the Aquifers. Life is good in Texas...

[weatherdude1108]

Sunday to Monday is...interesting! David Yeomans said fireplace and heater weather for the first time next week.

[bubba hotep]

This band of showers is interesting and appears to be associated with some strong frontogenesis but the thinking was that showers would fade as the best upper level forcing would moved out of the area this afternoon. As storms fire out west and a surface low deepens this area of frontogenesis should lift back north through DFW but will it still be able to support showers?

[Haris]

How do you upload radar gifs? Thx