Texas Fall 2018

[starsfan65]

When is the next NAM model run?

[SnowintheFalls]

Local mets here in the Falls are finally discussing not only snow but potential slight accumulations. We shall see though.

[Ntxw]

When is the next NAM model run?

8-9pm is the time you're looking for with the storm hours.

[starsfan65]

When is the next NAM model run?

8-9pm is the time you're looking for with the storm hours.

thanks!!

[TheProfessor]

38 degrees with a windchill of 22. Might see some snow tonight. Winter has arrived, for the time being.

[bubba hotep]

The NWS point forecast keeps MBY below 50 until Wednesday!

[Ntxw]

The NWS point forecast keeps MBY below 50 until Wednesday!

It's really nice not having to look 10 days out for below normal cold .


The rest of the country will moderate beyond 5-7 days but Texas and company will likely be on and off below normal to near normal while above normal further north. Weak-Mod Nino climo ftw.

[Brent]

The nam is such a tease

[bubba hotep]

The nam is such a tease

The NAM did this to us a lot last year. However, the soundings actually are supportive of snow when last year the NAM was showing snow despite a very large warm layer showing up in the soundings.

[bubba hotep]

[South Texas Storms]

So the 0z NAM has snow near Austin and SA on Tuesday morning

[Ralph's Weather]

The nam is such a tease

The NAM did this to us a lot last year. However, the soundings actually are supportive of snow when last year the NAM was showing snow despite a very large warm layer showing up in the soundings.

That was Tropical Tidbits graphics not the NAM itself teasing. Its algorithm for snow is off especially on the NAM.

[Brent]

0z NAM. Less snow in DFW

[Haris]

So the 0z NAM has snow near Austin and SA on Tuesday morning

YEA!!!!!!!

[starsfan65]

0z NAM. Less snow in DFW

http://i63.tinypic.com/14y1sf6.png

Is this a trend?

[Cpv17]

0z NAM. Less snow in DFW

http://i63.tinypic.com/14y1sf6.png

Is this a trend?

No, if anything, I’d say the trend overall the past couple days has been for increased chances of snow in DFW. There’s still plenty of time for things to change for better or worse so if you choose to be optimistic please do it with caution.

[Brent]

0z NAM. Less snow in DFW

http://i63.tinypic.com/14y1sf6.png

Is this a trend?

It was probably overdone to begin with but you never know. Didnt have support

Things could still trend in a good way but right now it was definitely an outlie

Tbh i wouldnt be surprised either way snow or no snow in the metro there are pros and cons to the setup but just to have a threat this early is crazy in itself

[Cpv17]

As Ntxw has alluded to, we’re in an El Niño this year with an active STJ. Moisture hasn’t been an issue for us this year so don’t be surprised if the models are underestimating qpf.

[jaguars_22]

On the Nam I am seeing a blob of moisture Tuesday morn pretty close to Victoria and south Texas who will see more icy mix south Texas or Dallas last year the south won

[Cpv17]

On the Nam I am seeing a blob of moisture Tuesday morn pretty close to Victoria and south Texas who will see more icy mix south Texas or Dallas last year the south won

I think this year, just about anyone in Texas has a decent shot.