Cpv17 wrote:Ntxw wrote:You know, late this weekend it's going to end up a little colder than what the models showed a week ago. I wonder if this is going to be the trend this year. Sunday in NTX is likely to be falling throughout the day from the upper 40s to the lower 40s.
Yep. Another thing I’ve noticed too is the models having an east bias in the medium to long range with the cold air only to shift back west in the short.
Yeah and it's not hard to see why. The 500mb ridge is not centered in the west but rather off the North American coast where the SSTa's are warmest in the GOA. Think 2013-2014 in that aspect. Second you can see that the 500mb mean trough actually extends to the west and southwest. Sometimes going by seasonal trends is better.
However this is about to change as the 500mb mean trough will shift and go from the southwest, through Texas, and the southeast. Some serious polar blocking on the way.